US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN947

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000947 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, AM 
SUBJECT:  WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?  THE ARMENIAN 
BODY POLITIC STALLED FOR THE MOMENT 
 
REFS: A) YEREVAN 880  B) YEREVAN 893  C) YEREVAN 901 
 
1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please treat 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) Now that the dust has settled, the 
government has released most opposition activists, 
and subsequent rallies have proceeded without 
incident, the lack of genuine opposition unity or a 
realistic game plan is becoming more apparent.  By 
insisting that President Kocharian resign and 
calling for a referendum for which there is no legal 
basis (septel) the opposition has left itself little 
political space in which to maneuver.  End Summary. 
 
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RECENT RALLIES MODEST, MOSTLY CALM 
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3. (SBU) Approximately 3000 opposition supporters 
demonstrated at 6:00 p.m. on April 16, with the 
rally proceeding for ninety minutes in steady rain, 
with opposition leaders Stepan Demirchian, Artashes 
Geghamian and Aram Sargsyan urging their supporters 
to keep up the pressure on President Kocharian, and 
condemning the police actions against the opposition 
during the week.  Opposition supporters had planned 
to hold the unauthorized rally in Opera Square, but 
were turned away by police who had scheduled a 
concert in the Opera to mark National Police Day. 
The demonstrators then marched on the sidewalk to 
the nearby park in front on the National Manuscript 
Museum without incident.  Approximately 30 police 
(wearing regular uniforms, not riot gear) kept the 
demonstrators from spilling into the street.  One 
police officer told us that he had been instructed 
by his superiors to not carry his baton or any other 
weapon.  The rally concluded at approximately 8:00 
p.m., and the demonstrators dispersed without 
incident. 
 
4. (SBU) The rally April 21 attracted some 5000 to 
7000 supporters, who listened to several hours of 
speeches and then proceeded to march in a roughly 
one-mile circuit around downtown Yerevan.  Although 
the demonstrators seriously impeded traffic during 
their march in the streets officials did not 
interfere in any way:  we even observed the police 
stopping traffic so the demonstrators could pass 
safely through intersections.  By the end of the 
march, fewer than 1000 protestors remained, with the 
evening ending peacefully (the march concluded at 
slightly after 9:30 p.m. local time). 
 
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OPPOSITION SPLIT ON THE NEXT STEPS 
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5. (SBU) The opposition is split on whether or not 
to carry through on its call for a rally and march 
on April 24, Armenian Genocide Memorial Day. 
Sources within the opposition tell us that Stepan 
Demirchian and Vazgen Manukian oppose the plan to 
march in force past the Presidential Palace to the 
Genocide Memorial, believing that any attempt to 
politicize the memorial would backfire.  According 
to these same opposition staffers, Aram Sargsian and 
Artashes Geghamian, on the other hand, are anxious 
to provoke a confrontation with the authorities and 
are pushing hard to organize a highly public rally 
and march.  We believe that, were the opposition to 
attempt to use Armenia's most solemn holiday for 
political gain, the potential for increased tensions 
and possible violence could be significant. 
 
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COMMENT:  NO PLAN FOR WHERE TO GO FROM HERE 
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6. (SBU) We believe that the opposition, never 
genuinely unified, is already starting to show its 
ideological cracks.  With Demirchian and Manukian 
lining up against their colleagues more inclined to 
confrontation, Sargsian and Geghamian, we see little 
evidence of agreement even on tactical issues. 
Kocharian won't need to pack his bags just yet. 
ORDWAY