US embassy cable - 04ABUJA709

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000709 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PHUM, ELAB, ASEC, NI 
SUBJECT: WORRIES ABOUT SECURITY, NOT ABOUT STABILITY 
 
REF: LAGOS 637 
 
COUNSELOR JAMES MAXSTADT FOR REASONS 1.5 b AND d. 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  Several press reports indicate that Nigerian 
security agencies are becoming increasingly worried about the 
potential of the opposition groups to create trouble on the 
streets, specifically a group of opposition politicians 
called the Coalition of Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP), 
and factions of street thugs collectively referred to as the 
Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC).  There are unconfirmed reports 
that the Government may soon clamp down on both by arresting 
leaders or restricting their movements.  END SUMMARY. 
 
CNPP 
 
2. (U) Presidential Spokesman Remi Oyo described anyone 
participating in a proposed May 3 protest against President 
Obasanjo as an "enemy of the State."  The CNPP is organizing 
the protest with cooperation from many prominent members of 
political parties, unions, civil society and the largest 
ethnic interest groups in the country.  Mrs. Oyo added, 
"Anyone who seeks to heat the system now should be regarded 
as an enemy."  This statement came amidst several attempts by 
the Nigerian security agencies to stop the proposed mass 
action.  The CNPP put off its original date for the protest 
from the anniversary of Obasanjo's election to May 3 because 
it was too difficult to coordinate.  Several meetings between 
GON security officials and CNPP figures have been reported, 
but the CNPP has not given up.  ANPP and APGA 2003 
presidential candidates Buhari and Ojukwu, and many other 
opposition activists and politicians, promise to lead the 
CNPP march in Abuja. 
 
3. (C) Gani Fawehinmi, the famous Lagos-based lawyer, human 
rights activist and 2003 Presidential Candidate of the 
National Conscience Party (NCP), claims GON security forces 
are especially focusing on him.  (COMMENT: Fawehinmi is a 
severe critic of all Nigerian governments.  He has been 
jailed several times by past military administrations.  In 
addition to opposing Obasanjo now, he is the lawyer for Orji 
Kalu -- a sitting PDP Governor widely seen as a political 
enemy of Obasanjo -- in a suit against Obasanjo ally Tony 
Anenih.  Fawehinmi is lending his personal support for the 
CNPP mass action, although he has stated publicly that his 
party will not participate.  The PDP has tried to portray the 
Nigerian opposition as ethnic zealots mostly coming from the 
Northern and, to a limited extent, Eastern parts of Nigeria, 
even though Fawehinmi is a Yoruba from the southwest.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
4. (U) Notwithstanding the Presidency's strong public and 
private opposition to the CNPP march, ruling PDP party 
chairman Audu Ogbeh is reported in the newspapers as having 
expressed support for the CNPP's holding a demonstration. 
"It is the right of everyone in a democracy," Ogbeh told 
newsmen in Abuja on 20 April.  He claimed that the PDP would 
organize its own counter-demonstration "after the CNPP 
finishes its own." 
 
OPC 
 
5. (U) Although not a part of the CNPP, the Oodua Peoples 
Congress (OPC) is also drawing the ire of GON security 
forces.  Twenty six OPC members were arrested in Lagos after 
a bloody clash April 19 between the police and elements of 
the group.  According to sources, the clash was sparked when 
police in Mushin area received a report of some OPC members 
molesting a commercial sex worker. 
 
6. (U) Attempts to arrest the accused by the plain-clothes 
security personnel sent to Ijeshadato, a Lagos suburb, were 
resisted by OPC members.  Fighting spread to other Lagos 
locales resulting in deaths and several injuries to police 
officers, OPC fighters and bystanders.  The Lagos Police 
Commissioner was forced to dispatch reinforcements, including 
anti-riot police, to contain the violence. 
 
COMMENT 
 
7. (C) Incidents of violence around the country are creating 
a tense atmosphere in Nigeria, made more tense by the recent 
arrests of military officers and speculation on a coup 
attempt.  With Obasanjo's opponents seeking avenues to 
express themselves, the combination of high tension and many 
thugs available for hire make it more likely that otherwise 
peaceful actions could turn into violence. 
ROBERTS