US embassy cable - 04ROME1566

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ROME 001566 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MOPS, IT, EUN, IRAQI FREEDOM, ITALIAN POLITICS 
SUBJECT: IRAQ: ROMAN BREAKFAST:BERLUSCONI SERVES HAM, PRODI 
WAFFLES 
 
    REF: A. ROME 1527 
     B. ROME 1491 
     C. ROME 1278 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR TOM COUNTRYMAN FOR REASONS 
1.5 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY. PM BERLUSCONI REACTED TO ZAPATERO'S 
WITHDRAWAL DECISION BY PUFFING OUT HIS CHEST AND CLAIMING 
THAT ITALY IS NOW AMERICA'S NUMBER ONE ALLY IN CONTINENTAL 
EUROPE.  IT WILL STAY THE COURSE BUT PUSH FOR AN ENHANCED UN 
ROLE TO ASSIST WITH IRAQ'S POLITICAL TRANSITION.  ROMANO 
PRODI, NOW FULLY IMMERSED IN ITALIAN POLITICS AS THE LEADER 
OF THE LARGEST BLOC WITHIN THE OPPOSITION CENTER-LEFT, USED 
THE OCCASION TO DANCE AROUND HIS POSITION ON IRAQ.  A 
ZAPATARISTA "WANNA BE", PRODI SAID SPAIN IS CONTRIBUTING TO 
EUROPEAN UNITY ON IRAQ, BUT ALLOWED HIS PRESS SPOKESMAN TO 
NOTE THAT THE EC PRESIDENT DOES NOT SUPPORT IMMEDIATE 
WITHDRAWAL OF ITALIAN TROOPS.  THE SPANISH DECISION, COMBINED 
WITH PRODI'S WAFFLING APPROACH, UNDERCUTS THE EFFORTS OF 
MODERATE CENTER-LEFT LEADERS TO ADOPT A RESPONSIBLE POSITION 
TOWARD ITALY'S COMMITMENTS. WITH THE CENTER-LEFT FEELING THE 
ATTRACTION OF THE FRENCH-GERMAN-SPANISH ORBIT, BERLUSCONI'S 
NCAA-LIKE "WE'RE NUMBER ONE" SHOUT IS RINGING TRUER.  WE HAVE 
HIM--AND PRESIDENT CIAMPI--TO THANK FOR ITALY'S STILL BEING 
VERY MUCH IN THE IRAQ GAME.  END SUMMARY. 
 
WE'RE NUMBER 1 
-------------- 
 
2. (SBU) PM ZAPATERO'S DECISION TO WITHDRAW SPANISH TROOPS 
    FROM IRAQ PROVOKED MARKEDLY DIFFERENT RESPONSES FROM ITALY'S 
POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IN AND OUT OF GOVERNMENT.  PM BERLUSCONI 
BURNISHED HIS RESUME OF MEMORABLE PHRASES ON APRIL 19 WHEN HE 
PROUDLY STATED THAT, "WE CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FACT THAT 
ITALY IS NOW CONSIDERED THE CLOSEST ALLY OF THE UNITED STATES 
IN CONTINENTAL EUROPE."  "NOW THAT SPAIN IS WITHDRAWING FROM 
IRAQ," HE ADDED, "WE CAN FURTHER IMPROVE ON OUR RELATIONS 
WITH THE U.S." GENERAL FILIBERTO CECCHI, HEAD OF THE ITALIAN 
JOINT FORCES COMMAND, COMMENTED SEPARATELY THAT ITALY COULD 
NOT, HOWEVER, BE EXPECTED TO FILL THE GAP BEING LEFT BY THE 
SPANISH BECAUSE ITS FORCE GENERATION CAPACITY WAS MAXED OUT. 
 
3. (SBU) FOLLOWING HIS MEETING THIS WEEK WITH UN SPECIAL 
ENVOY BRAHIMI, BERLUSCONI AFFIRMED THAT ITALIAN FORCES WILL 
REMAIN IN IRAQ TO HELP GUARANTEE THE SECURITY FRAMEWORK 
NECESSARY FOR A SMOOTH TRANSITION OF POWER TO IRAQI 
AUTHORITIES ON JUNE 30.  LEAVING NO ROOM FOR UNCERTAINTY, HE 
ADDED THAT ITALIAN MILITARY AND CIVILIAN PERSONNEL WILL 
CONTINUE THEIR HUMANITARIAN OPERATIONS TO ASSIST THE PEOPLE 
OF IRAQ.  BERLUSCONI BRUSHED OFF DS LEADER PIERO FASSINO'S 
CALL FOR AN EXTRAORDINARY EU COUNCIL MEETING TO FORGE A 
COMMON EUROPEAN POSITION ON IRAQ. 
 
PRODI: WITHDRAWAL GOOD...UNLESS ITS BAD 
--------------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) ROMANO PRODI, WHOSE INCREASING FIRST-PERSON FORAYS 
INTO THE ITALIAN POLITICAL ARENA MAKE US WONDER WHETHER HE 
ISN'T NOW MOONLIGHTING AS EC PRESIDENT, "SERVED UP A WAFFLE" 
ON IRAQ BEFORE A GATHERING OF SUPPORTERS IN ROME ON MONDAY. 
PRODI SAID HE INTERPRETED ZAPATERO'S DECISION AS A MEANS OF 
    EXERTING STRONG PRESSURE FOR A SOLUTION (UNDEFINED).  SPAIN, 
PRODI CROWED, HAS NOW RETURNED TO OUR (READ CENTER-LEFT 
OPPOSITION COALITION OLIVE TREE) LINE AND THE SPANISH 
WITHDRAWAL IS HELPING TO "UNIFY EUROPE AROUND A COMMON 
POSITION." (NOTE: PRODI CONVENIENTLY IGNORED THE FACT THAT A 
MAJORITY OF NATO'S MEMBERS ARE ON THE GROUND IN IRAQ). 
PRODI'S SPOKESPERSON JUMPED IN ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TO 
"CLARIFY" FOR REPORTERS THAT THE "EC PRESIDENT STILL THINKS 
THAT AN IMMEDIATE WITHDRAWAL OF ITALIAN TROOPS FROM IRAQ 
WOULD NOT BE WISE." IN PRIVATE, PRODI HAS REPORTEDLY TOLD 
FOLLOWERS THAT ITALY IS A GLOBAL POWER WITH RESPONSIBILITIES 
AND, AS SUCH, A DISTINCTION HAS TO BE MADE BETWEEN 
WITHDRAWING TROOPS FROM IRAQ NOW AND SENDING THEM IN THE 
FIRST PLACE. 
 
5. (C) WITH THE CENTER-LEFT OPPOSITION DEEPLY DIVIDED OVER 
IRAQ POLICY, PRODI'S WAFFLING MIGHT MAKE POLITICAL SENSE, 
EVEN IF IT DOES NOT INSTILL CONFIDENCE IN HIS LEADERSHIP 
QUALITIES.  BY TALKING THE TALK OF THE REAL ITALIAN 
ZAPATARISTI (GREEN PARTY, THE LEFT WING OF THE DS, COMMUNIST 
RENEWAL) PRODI IS MAKING A BID TO KEEP PACIFIST VOTERS IN HIS 
CAMP--ENTICED BY THE PHILOSOPHY "MORE UN, LESS U.S."--WITHOUT 
HAVING TO WALK THE WALK BY CALLING FOR "WITHDRAWAL NOW". 
 
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ROME 00001566  002.1 OF 002 
 
POSITION LEADERS TO HEW MORE 
CLOSELY TO ZAPATERO'S LINE IS MOUNTING. 
 
DIVERGING POLITICAL SOLAR SYSTEMS 
--------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) ZAPATERO'S PRECIPITOUS STEP FURTHER EXACERBATED 
PARTISANSHIP ON IRAQ THAT HAD BEEN MOMENTARILY QUELLED BY A 
SENSE OF NATIONAL UNITY AROUND THE OBJECTIVE OF FREEING THE 
THREE ITALIANS STILL BEING HELD HOSTAGE.  IT MAY MAKE IT MORE 
DIFFICULT FOR RESPONSIBLE CENTER-LEFT LEADERS SUCH AS FASSINO 
AND DAISY PARTY LEADER FRANCESCO RUTELLI TO ARGUE 
PERSUASIVELY IN FAVOR OF AN ENHANCED ROLE FOR THE UN WHILE 
EMPHASIZING THAT IMMEDIATE WITHDRAWAL WOULD NOT SERVE THE 
INTERESTS OF THE IRAQI PEOPLE. INDEED, FASSINO SAID 
ZAPATERO'S DECISION MAKES THE NEED TO CHANGE COURSE IN 
IRAQ--WHICH HE DEFINED AS THE UN ASSUMING POLITICAL-MILITARY 
CONTROL OF MULTINATIONAL FORCES--ALL THE MORE PRESSING. IN 
CONTRAST TO BERLUSCONI'S TOUTING OF ITALY'S ALLIANCE WITH THE 
U.S., THE FRANCO-GERMAN-SPANISH ORBIT IS EXERTING A STRONG 
PULL ON THE OPPOSITION. 
 
7. (C) THE DAISY CAN BE EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK, HOWEVER. 
ENRICO LETTA, ONE OF THE PARTY'S STARS, TOLD A REPORTER ON 
APRIL 20 THAT "ZAPATERO'S POSITION IS NOT OURS", AND ADDED 
FAIRMINDEDLY, "WE SHOULDN'T BE GUIDED BY ZAPATERO SINCE WE 
CRITICIZED BERLUSCONI FOR NIPPING TOO CLOSELY AT AZNAR'S 
HEELS."  RUTELLI, FOR HIS PART, HAS BEEN THE STRONGEST, MOST 
MODERATE OPPOSITION VOICE, ADOPTING A STANCE IN SYNC WITH 
PRESIDENT CIAMPI'S (WHO HAS CALLED FOR AN ENHANCED UN ROLE 
    AND THE CONTINUATION OF ITALY'S HUMANITARIAN MISSION IN 
IRAQ), ALTHOUGH HE HAS NOT BEEN CLEAR ABOUT HIS POSITION ON 
MILITARY CONTROL OF COALITION FORCES POST-JUNE 30. 
 
8. (C) COMMENT.  PRODI'S PRONOUNCEMENTS ON IRAQ HAVE NOT 
HELPED TO BUILD AN OPPOSITION CONSTITUENCY FOR A SUSTAINED 
ITALIAN COMMITMENT TO STABILIZATION AND RECONSTRUCTION. 
WHILE BERLUSCONI IS PRONE TO HYPERBOLE, HIS NCAA-LIKE "WE'RE 
NUMBER ONE" SHOUT RINGS TRUE.  WE HAVE HIS LEADERSHIP--AND 
PRESIDENT CIAMPI'S MODERATION--TO THANK FOR ITALY'S STILL 
BEING VERY MUCH IN THE IRAQ GAME. (NOTE: LAST WEEK'S LETTER 
FROM PRESIDENT BUSH TO CIAMPI CERTAINLY HELPED KEEP HIM 
LEANING THE RIGHT WAY.)  A NEW UNSC RESOLUTION--SOONER RATHER 
THAN LATER--WOULD BUCK UP THE GOVERNMENT PRIOR TO EUROPEAN 
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN JUNE, HELP IT HELP US, AND 
UNDERCUT THOSE ON THE LEFT WHO WANT ITALIAN TROOPS HOME.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
9. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. 
 
VISIT ROME'S CLASSIFIED WEBSITE: 
HTTP://WWW.STATE.SGOV.GOV/P/EUR/ROME/INDEX.CF M 
 
SKODON 
 
ROME 00001566  002.2 OF 002 
 
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 2004ROME01566 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED