US embassy cable - 01COLOMBO579

UNCLAS COLOMBO 000579 
 
LONDON FOR SUTPHIN 
CINCPAC FOR FPA AMB TWINING 
 

E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CE 
SUBJECT: COLOMBO CALM AFTER THREE MONTHS OF LTTE CEASEFIRE 
 
REF: (A) COLOMBO 0234, (B) COLOMBO 0201, (C) COLOMBO 0188, 
(D) COLOMBO 0182, (E) COLOMBO 0156, (F) COLOMBO 0108, (G) 00 
COLOMBO 2773, (H) 00 COLOMBO 2760 
 
1.   (U) SUMMARY:  RELATIVE CALM PREVAILS IN COLOMBO MORE 
THAN THREE MONTHS AFTER AN ANNOUNCEMENT IN DECEMBER 2000 BY 
THE LIBERATION TIGERS OF TAMIL EELAM (LTTE) OF A UNILATERAL 
CEASE-FIRE (SEE REFTELS A-C, F-H).  AFTER A SERIES OF 
OFFENSIVES TO RECLAIM PART OF THE JAFFNA PENINSULA, SRI 
LANKAN ARMED FORCES HAVE REFRAINED FROM MAJOR MILITARY 
OPERATIONS IN AREAS HELD BY THE LTTE, ALTHOUGH AERIAL 
BOMBARDMENT OF SUSPECTED LTTE BASES CONTINUES.  DESPITE THE 
CALM, THE SINHALESE PUBLIC BOTH IN COLOMBO AND RURAL AREAS 
OF THE SOUTH REMAINS SKEPTICAL ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR PEACE. 
ENGLISH-MEDIUM MEDIA HAVE WITHHELD JUDGEMENT ABOUT POSSIBLE 
PEACE TALKS, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE VERNACULAR SINHALESE PRESS 
INSISTS FAILURE OF PEACE TALKS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO 
RESUMPTION OF HOSTILITIES.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  COLOMBO-BASED PRESS ANALYSTS WHO HAVE COVERED THE 
CONFLICT FOR THE LAST TWO DECADES SAY THE RECENT CALM IN THE 
CAPITAL REMINDS THEM OF 1987, WHEN THE LTTE AGREED TO LAY 
DOWN ARMS IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE INDO-LANKA ACCORD.  THEY 
STRESS BREAKDOWNS IN THE PEACE PROCESS, IN 1987 AND 
SUBSEQUENTLY, HAVE IMMUNIZED THE PUBLIC FROM HOPING TOO MUCH 
FOR PEACE AND SAY PEOPLE HAVE VERY LOW EXPECTATIONS THE 
CURRENT LULL WILL CONTINUE. 
 
3.  LOCAL POLITICAL ORGANIZERS AND ACADEMICS IN THE 
PREDOMINANTLY SINHALA-SPEAKING PROVINCES OF UVA, 
SABARAGAMUWA AND THE SOUTHERN PROVINCE TOLD EMBOFF DURING A 
TRIP IN EARLY APRIL THAT FEW PEOPLE IN THESE RURAL DISTRICTS 
HAD GIVEN MUCH THOUGHT TO THE THREE MONTHS OF RELATIVE CALM 
IN COLOMBO.  THEY SAID THE PUBLIC CONTINUES TO EXPRESS GREAT 
SKEPTICISM ABOUT THE LTTE'S MOTIVES IN ANNOUNCING ITS CEASE- 
FIRE. 
 
4.  GOVERNMENT ENGLISH-LANGUAGE MEDIA HAS NEITHER EXTOLLED 
NOR DECRIED THE RECENT CALM, BUT SOME SECTIONS OF THE 
SINHALA-LANGUAGE PRESS CONTINUE TO WARN OF IMPENDING ATTACKS 
BY THE LTTE.  OPPOSITION UNITED NATIONAL PARTY (UNP) SOURCES 
ACCUSE THE GSL OF USING THE THREAT OF RENEWED LTTE ATTACKS 
TO JUSTIFY CONTINUED HEAVY DEFENSE EXPENDITURE AND SAY THE 
GSL CONTINUES TO USE THE ONGOING WAR ISSUE TO DISTRACT 
ATTENTION FROM THE ECONOMY'S WEAKNESS AND RISING COST OF 
LIVING (SEE REFTELS D-E). 
 
5.  A MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SOURCE ATTACHED TO SRI LANKA'S 
LARGEST MILITARY TRAINING ACADEMY, AT DIYATALAWA, TOLD 
EMBOFF THAT ALTHOUGH THE MILITARY HAD NOT LET ITS GUARD DOWN 
IN RESPONSE TO THE LTTE'S CEASE-FIRE ANNOUNCEMENT, MANY 
MILITARY OFFICERS NONETHELESS EXPRESS CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE 
NORWAY-LED PEACE PROCESS.  DESPITE ALL THE RHETORIC OF WAR, 
HE SAID, "SOLDIERS YEARN FOR PEACE MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE." 
 
6.   COMMENT:  BUDDHIST AND HINDU NEW YEAR CELEBRATIONS 
TYPICALLY MAKE MID-APRIL A QUIET TIME; THE LTTE'S CEASE-FIRE 
AND MANEUVERS AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF PEACE TALKS HAVE 
MADE THIS ONE OF THE QUIETEST APRILS IN YEARS.  ALTHOUGH 
DEEP MISTRUST OF LTTE INTENTIONS CONTINUES IN MUCH OF THE 
SINHALESE PUBLIC, PEOPLE IN COLOMBO UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE ENJOYED 
THE LAST THREE BOMB-FREE MONTHS.  MOST PEOPLE NOW BELIEVE 
SOME SORT OF TALKS BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND LTTE WILL 
OCCUR, BUT EXPECTATIONS ABOUT POTENTIAL OUTCOMES OF TALKS 
REMAIN LOW.  NOBODY WILL BE SURPRISED IF -- SOME WOULD SAY 
"WHEN" -- THE EXPLOSIONS BEGIN AGAIN. 
 
 
WILLS