US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV2256

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002256 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: LIKUD MK SA'AR OPPOSES WITHDRAWAL PLAN BUT 
PREDICTS REFERENDUM ENDORSEMENT 
 
REF: A. TEL AVIV 2250 
     B. TEL AVIV 1906 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norm Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b) and ( 
d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Likud MK Gideon Sa'ar told poloff on April 
18 that he will quietly oppose PM Sharon's disengagement plan 
even though he is certain that the plan will win a majority 
in the May 2 Likud referendum.  Sa'ar objects to the plan 
since it requires withdrawing from Gaza and four northern 
West Bank settlements without obtaining anything from the 
Palestinians in return.  He fears that implementing the plan 
will be seen by terrorist organizations as their victory and 
will leave Israel without future bargaining chips in 
negotiations.   Sa'ar said that despite his opposition to the 
plan, he will support it after it wins approval in the 
referendum, and that he hopes Likud can convince right-wing 
coalition partners to remain in the government even after 
Cabinet approval of the plan.  End summary. 
 
---------------------------- 
Sa'ar Goes Against the Tide 
---------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Hours after the April 18 announcements by several key 
Likud ministers that they would support PM Sharon's 
disengagement plan (ref A), Likud faction leader and 
first-term MK Gideon Sa'ar told poloff that "Sharon has the 
wind on his back" and predicted a Likud majority will support 
the PM's plan in the referendum.  Despite his prediction, 
Sa'ar told poloff he opposes the plan and will vote against 
it in the May 2 Likud referendum.  Sa'ar added that he will 
not join any of his fellow Likud colleagues' campaigns 
against the plan, such as that of Agriculture Minister 
Yisrael Levy or Minister-Without-Portfolio Uzi Landau.  Sa'ar 
said he recognizes that most Israelis want change and hope 
that disengagement will improve the overall security 
situation.  Once the plan is approved in the Likud 
referendum, Sa'ar stated firmly that he will then support the 
plan as well. 
 
3.  (C) Sa'ar stressed that for now, he could not support the 
Prime Minister's plan on principle since it requires Israel 
to withdraw from all of Gaza and four West Bank settlements 
without obtaining any quid pro quo from the Palestinians. 
Israel would lose important bargaining chips in any future 
negotiations with the Palestinians, he argued.  "Israel did 
not make out so well" in PM Sharon's April 14 letter exchange 
with President Bush, Sa'ar claimed.  In exchange for 
President Bush's "words," Sa'ar emphasized, Israel gave up 
all Gaza settlements, four settlements in the West Bank and, 
according to Sa'ar, overall settlement growth. 
 
---------------------- 
Victory for Terrorists 
---------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Sa'ar also opposes unilateral disengagement because 
he believes it sends the wrong signal to Palestinian 
extremists who, he fears, will claim a victory when they see 
Israeli settlers packing up and leaving Gaza.  They will view 
the evacuation of Gaza, says Sa'ar, as the result of a 
successful terrorist campaign and not as a result of 
bilateral negotiations.  Sa'ar stressed it would have been 
much more advantageous to move forward with a Gaza withdrawal 
in steps, along with a Palestinian partner, but said there is 
no acceptable Palestinian partner currently.  "None of the 
moderate (Palestinian leaders) have a chance while Arafat is 
around," he said. 
 
------------------------------ 
Holding the Coalition Together 
------------------------------ 
 
5.  (C)  Sa'ar said the threats of the right-wing coalition 
parties -- the National Religious Parties and the National 
Union -- to leave the coalition if the plan is approved by 
the Cabinet (after it receives a majority in the referendum) 
are not yet certain.  Even National Union Chairman Avigdor 
Lieberman, says Sa'ar, may decide to stay in his ministerial 
seat.  Sa'ar confirmed that he and other Likud MKs were 
trying to convince these parties to stay in the coalition 
even after the plan is approved.  "We prefer if the 
right-wing stays" rather than having Labor join the 
coalition, Sa'ar stressed. 
 
------------------------------ 
Pushing Away Thoughts of Mazuz 
------------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) Sa'ar declined to speculate on the possibility that 
Attorney General Menachem Mazuz would recommend that PM 
Sharon be indicted on bribery charges in the Greek Island 
Affair (ref B).  He told poloff that he "cannot think about 
(the issue.)"  He did underline, however, his view that Mazuz 
could only lean on the weight of the evidence at hand when 
making his decision, not on subjective matters such as 
whether indicting Sharon would be for the national good. 
********************************************* ******************** 
Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv 
 
You can also access this site through the State Department's 
Classified SIPRNET website. 
********************************************* ******************** 
KURTZER