US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV2250

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002250 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: SHARON SECURES KEY LIKUD MINISTERS' SUPPORT FOR 
DISENGAGEMENT PLAN 
 
REF: FBIS GMP20040419000030 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  PM Sharon has lined up key Likud ministers 
behind his disengagement plan and set the stage for victory 
in the May 2 Likud referendum.  In the process, Sharon 
stretched to their full measure USG assurances regarding 
Israeli retention of West Bank settlement blocs, Israel's 
right to defensible borders and freedom to retaliate against 
terrorists, and USG support for Palestinian refugee 
repatriation in a future Palestinian state.  He also 
reportedly delivered the last commitment sought by FinMin 
Netanyahu -- inclusion of major West Bank settlement blocs 
within the completed separation barrier before starting any 
Gaza withdrawal.  Sharon played down the significance of 
meeting Netanyahu's conditions for supporting the 
disengagement plan by thanking several Likud ministers for 
their proposals for inclusion in the disengagement plan. 
With the last major Likud holdouts in Sharon's pocket -- 
Netanyahu, Education Minister Livnat, Foreign Minister 
Shalom, Minister-without Portfolio Sheetrit, and Immigration 
and Absorption Minister Livni -- the unilateral disengagement 
plan is certain to receive a Likud majority in the party's 
May 2 referendum.  End summary. 
 
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Sharon Stretching U.S. Assurances? 
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2.  (C) PM Sharon's April 18 depiction to the Cabinet of USG 
assurances on rejection of right of return, support for 
retention of settlement blocs, Israel's broad right to defend 
itself, and USG support for these positions in any future 
negotiation with the Palestinians, as confirmed by the 
subsequent official Cabinet Communique (reftel), won the day 
politically for Sharon and for his unilateral disengagement 
plan.  In addition, Sharon reportedly promised Netanyahu that 
the separation barrier would be built according to the 
complete route decided upon by the Cabinet last year, 
including Ariel, Emmanuel, Kedumim and Karnei Shomron, and 
announced the creation of a team including himself, Mofaz, 
and Netanyahu to orchestrate the speedy completion of the 
barrier.  (Note: We are trying to confirm the substance of 
the agreement with Netanyahu to determine if Netanyahu is 
himself stretching what he got from Sharon.)  Sharon will 
only discuss the plan with Cabinet ministers in detail after 
the May 2 Likud referendum.  In an April 18 radio interview, 
Netanyahu explained that he decided to support the plan "when 
the Prime Minister agreed to promise that we could fence 
(settlement blocs in Judea and Samaria) by means of the 
central fence and include them in the same area as the rest 
of Israel, prior to any evacuation...." 
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Sharon Gives Bibi What he Wants -- Underhandedly 
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3.  (C) Staffers for PM Sharon and FinMin Netanyahu 
reportedly negotiated until the early morning of April 18, 
only hours before Sharon's presentation of USG assurances to 
the Cabinet, to meet Netanyahu's conditions for supporting 
Sharon's plan: inclusion of major West Bank settlements 
within the security barrier and the barrier's completion 
before Gaza settlement evacuation begins.  (Note: The plan's 
inclusion of continued Israeli control over Gaza border 
crossings even after withdrawal and U.S. assurances on 
Palestinian right of return met Netanyahu's other two 
conditions.)  At the April 18 Cabinet meeting, Sharon was 
able to deliver those USG assurances and the commitments 
Netanyahu sought with the added muscle of having just hours 
earlier announced the IDF's assassination of Hamas leader 
Abdul Aziz Rantisi.  As if to undermine Netanyahu's role in 
pushing Sharon or, at the very least, his staff, through 
additional hoops after Sharon's U.S. meetings, Sharon did not 
attribute his commitments to an effort to meet Netanyahu's 
conditions.  Sharon instead thanked Defense Minister Shaul 
Mofaz for pushing for assurances on Israel's right to 
defensible borders, and Immigration Absorption Minister Tzipi 
Livni for her insistence for U.S. assurances that Palestinian 
refugees should have the right of return in a future 
Palestinian state.  Netanyahu won thanks only for making 
comments on the fence. 
 
4.  (C)  Netanyahu, Livnat, and Minister-Without-Portfolio 
Meir Sheetrit all announced their support for the withdrawal 
plan to the press shortly after the Cabinet meeting.  Foreign 
Minister Silvan Shalom held out until April 19 and announced 
his anticipated support for the plan in an afternoon press 
conference which was preceded by a meeting with Sharon. 
Shalom said that he is supporting Sharon's plan to "reinforce 
existing settlements" and to show "unity among (the Likud 
party.)"  MFA Director of International Organizations Roni 
Ya'ar told DCM on April 19 that Shalom called his senior 
staff together that morning to announce he would support 
Sharon's plan even though not all his demands were met, such 
as a Palestinian partner.  Shalom, however, had looked for a 
way to support the plan, Ya'ar said.  According to Ya'ar, 
Shalom instructed his staff to craft a "diplomatic action 
plan" to gain broader international support after an 
anticipated Cabinet approval of the plan on May 9. 
 
5.  (C) Regarding Netanyahu's announcement of support for the 
plan, columnist and International Director of the Israel 
Democracy Institute Uri Dromi noted to poloff on April 19 
that Netanyahu -- and all of the holdout ministers -- cannot 
afford to appear as though they oppose the plan when the 
United States is supporting it.  He asserted that it is 
important for Netanyahu not to "take on" Sharon at this time. 
 Rather, Dromi opined, Netanyahu is biding his time, 
preferring to position himself as a statesman and serious 
finance minister, until AG Menachem Mazuz decides on whether 
to indict Sharon on bribery charges.  Likud faction leader MK 
Gidon Sa'ar told poloff on April 18 that he knew all along 
that Netanyahu would support the plan, because Netanyahu 
could not afford to do otherwise.  He added that he never 
would have believed a year ago that settlement supporters 
like Sharon, Livnat, and Netanyahu would support unilateral 
withdrawal.  Sa'ar himself, a former Cabinet Secretary for 
Sharon and head of the Likud Knesset faction, opposes the 
plan (but does not vote in the Cabinet). 
 
6.  (C) Peace Now director Yariv Oppenheimer told poloff on 
April 19 that Sharon may have committed himself specifically 
during negotiations with Netanyahu to include the 
aforementioned settlement blocs to obtain his support for the 
disengagement plan before the Likud referendum.  After the 
referendum, Oppenheimer speculated, it would not be difficult 
for Sharon to renege on this agreement with Netanyahu. 
 
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Comment 
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7.  (C) If Sharon did in fact promise Netanyahu that the 
security barrier would go along the route that the Cabinet 
had originally decided last year and which includes the 
settlements cited above, this would conflict with interim 
assurances provided by Sharon to the USG that changes would 
be made to the fence route to ease humanitarian burdens on 
Palestinians.  In any event, Sharon told Netanyahu what he 
needed to in order to secure Netanyahu's support and a 
victory in the May 2 referendum. 
 
 
 
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