US embassy cable - 04SANTODOMINGO2366

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANTO DOMINGO 002366 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, WHA/PPC, AND DRL 
STATE PASS AID/LAC 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
TREASURY FOR OASIA-LAMONICA 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2009 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ASEC, DR 
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN ELECTION #37: SECURITY AN ISSUE, OAS ON 
SITE, LEONEL LEADS 
 
REF: SANTO DOMINGO 2294 
 
Classified By: Classified by Acting ECOPOL Counselor Thomas Pierce.  Re 
ason: 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) This is no. 37 in our series on the Dominican 
presidential election: 
 
(U) Election Security at Stake, OAS Observers Active, Leonel 
Still Leads 
 
(SBU) At 30 days before the election, the violent deaths of 
two persons in the campaign prompted the big three 
presidential candidates to sign an agreement, endorsed by 
civil society, to curb the use of guns and rum at party 
rallies and to respect democratic rules. The OAS observer 
mission, on its second official visit this week, has -- with 
the Ambassador's support -- persuaded the Central Election 
Board (JCE) to test the JCE computer network's immunity 
against hackers.  The latest polls continue to place 
ex-president Leonel Fernandez far ahead of his rivals. 
 
(SBU) Reacting to a shootout in a low-income Santo Domingo 
neighborhood during campaign activities April 11, which 
killed two persons and wounded at least five others, the 
three candidates -- encouraged by national mediator Mons. 
Agripino Nunez of the civil society "Monitoring Committee" -- 
signed April 16 a "Commitment for a civilized election 
campaign and the strengthening of democracy" at a ceremony 
with heavy press coverage.  This pact commits the signers to: 
-- Not interfere in each other's party activities with 
violence or intimidation; 
-- Respect institutions, cooperating with the JCE, keeping 
the military out of politics, and playing by the rules; 
-- Instruct campaign managers to have as many meetings as 
necessary to ensure their subordinates carry out this 
agreement; and 
-- Accept as witnesses the Monitoring Committee, business and 
labor groups, churches, and the (U.S.-funded) NGOs "Citizens' 
Participation" and "Foundation for Institutionality and 
Justice." 
 
(SBU) The campaign until now has been less violent than in 
previous years, particularly 1994 when the toll was reported 
to have reached 40 dead and over 100 injured.  The April 16 
accord, if implemented, could help maintain the downward 
trend.  That said, the press reported that on April 17 two 
exchanges of small arms fire in connection with campaign 
activities left six persons injured, one seriously. 
 
(C) OAS observer mission chief Santiago Murray and four 
experts, met with GODR authorities, political parties, and 
civil society organizations this week and briefed donor 
embassies (the European Union, Canada, and the United States) 
at the Ambassador's residence April 14. According to Murray, 
the JCE had been performing satisfactorily "so far" in 
organizing the elections and responding to problems and 
criticisms.  Murray had pressed the JCE to conduct  an 
advance test of the computer system for reporting election 
returns and its security against hackers and others who might 
try to tamper with the results.  The Ambassador supported 
this proposal with JCE President Luis Arias, and the JCE 
subsequently announced that the test would take place April 
24. 
 
(C) At an outbrief with us April 18, Murray expressed his 
concern about use of government resources to support 
President Mejia's re-election bid.  After receiving a 
document from Leonel Fernandez's PLD with detailed 
allegations, Murray spoke with President Mejia and warned him 
against blatant abuses, such as an announced distribution of 
new motorcycles to "motoconcho" taxi drivers slated to begin 
April 29 with Mejia present.  Murray told the President that, 
if he appeared at this event, the OAS mission would criticize 
him publicly.  Mejia protested, but finally agreed not to 
attend. 
 
(SBU) Recent polls continue to show Leonel Fernandez (PLD) 
with a commanding lead over 
President Mejia (PRD) and Eduardo Estrella (PRSC) and a 
possibility of winning in the 
first round.  A poll by the Spanish firm Noxa Consulting 
March 22-26 gave Fernandez 
59 percent of voter intentions, Mejia 22, and Estrella 18; if 
a second round were needed, 
Fernandez would win 66-23 over Mejia and 57-35 over Estrella. 
 A Costa Rican CID poll, with 
data from March 23-31, gave Leonel 55 percent, Mejia 26, and 
Estrella 19.  Whether Leonel 
will sustain this momentum to clear the high bar (50 percent 
plus one vote) required for a 
first-round victory remains to be seen; a new poll is 
expected to be published soon. 
 
(SBU) Speeches by President Mejia on fighting corruption and 
by PRSC candidate Estrella on 
his economic proposals (septel), both on April 14, injected a 
bit more substance into the 
campaign -- but neither party has yet published a campaign 
platform.  Leonel Fernandez's 
PLD published its platform recently (reftel). 
 
2. (U) Drafted by Leticia Cantu and Bainbridge Cowell. 
 
3. (U) This report and others in this series can be read on 
the SIPRNET at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ index.cfm along 
with extensive other current material. 
HERTELL