US embassy cable - 04RANGOON481

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 000481 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, BM, NLD, National Convention 
SUBJECT: NLD LEADERS IN A "WAIT AND SEE" MOOD 
 
REF: RANGOON 472 
 
Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1. (S) Summary:  During our April 19 visit to re-opened NLD 
headquarters, recently released Chairman U Aung Shwe played 
down press reports that he believes ASSK's release is 
imminent and denied rumors of a meeting between top SPDC and 
NLD leaders, but acknowledged that the regime had allowed him 
and other detained CEC members to meet with ASSK in 
mid-March.  The released NLD leaders told us they believe 
their party has some leverage vis-a-vis the regime's 
reconvening of the National Convention, but that they will 
wait and see what develops in the coming weeks.  The release 
of U Aung Shwe and NLD Secretary U Lwin, and the reopening of 
party headquarters, has given the party a visible morale 
boost, but the pro-democracy movement will remain hobbled 
until the release of ASSK and U Tin Oo and the re-opening of 
all NLD party offices.  End Summary. 
 
2. (SBU) On April 19, COM and P/E Chief called on NLD 
Chairman U Aung Shwe and Secretary U Lwin, both released on 
April 13 after spending over ten months under house arrest. 
We met at NLD headquarters in central Rangoon, re-opened on 
April 17, where about a hundred NLD party members were busy 
cleaning musty offices and fielding questions from 
international media stringers.  NLD CEC member U Nyunt Wei, 
released last November, also joined the one-hour meeting. 
 
3. (C) U Aung Shwe, quoted earlier in the day in 
international press reports as expecting the release of Aung 
San Suu Kyi "within one or two days," told us with a smile 
that he had no specific information regarding ASSK's status, 
but said that he and his colleagues remained "ever hopeful" 
that she and NLD Vice Chairman U Tin Oo would be released 
soon. 
 
4. (S) We asked the NLD leaders about fresh rumors that the 
detained NLD top leadership (ASSK, U Tin Oo, U Aung Shwe, and 
U Lwin) had met in March with SPDC Chairman Than Shwe, PM 
General Khin Nyunt, and other top regime leaders.  U Aung 
Shwe acknowledged that the four NLD party leaders held a 
brief meeting among themselves to discuss party business in 
mid-March, but denied that there had been any contact with 
the SPDC generals.  He demurred on discussing the content of 
the NLD meeting or identifying the location, describing their 
talks as "secret," and said he had no idea why the SPDC had 
allowed the detained party leaders an opportunity to meet. 
 
5. (C) The CEC members agreed with COM's observation that the 
SPDC had issued invitations to some NLD members to attend the 
reconvened National Convention to give the regime at least a 
limited ability to claim it was being "inclusive" and blame 
the NLD for a failed process should the leading opposition 
party choose to boycott.  U Lwin said that in 1995, after his 
party departed the Convention, the regime stated that it 
"could do anything without the NLD."  In reality, he added, 
they were unable to move ahead without the NLD and the 
Convention collapsed shortly thereafter.  "We have some 
leverage," said U Aung Shwe, "but we will wait and see what 
develops in the coming weeks." 
 
6. (C) The NLD leaders said that they believed about 30 NLD 
members had received direct invitations to attend the 
reconvened Convention.  (Note: The NLD was allotted 86 
delegates to the 1993 Convention, plus an additional five 
party representatives. End Note)  They said no NLD member 
would act on their invitation (and U Aung Shwe said he had 
even refused to take receipt of his invitation from a 
military intelligence courier), but allowed that the regime 
might be able to persuade four former NLD party members, 
dismissed by party leaders, to attend the Convention under 
the NLD banner. 
 
7. (C) U Lwin said that the NLD insists that the SPDC address 
the significant shortcomings of the aborted 1993-1996 
National Convention before giving serious consideration to 
participating in a renewed Convention.  U Nyunt Wei added 
that the Burmese people would not blame the NLD for a stalled 
process.  "Our people won't be duped," he said "the generals 
are obviously moving toward a constitutional dictatorship and 
their road map is nonsense and nothing more than eyewash." 
8. (C) U Aung Shwe said that U.S. sanctions "have been very 
helpful" and U Lwin added that the NLD welcomes recent U.S. 
and EU statements drawing attention to their release and 
other developments regarding the NLD.  "Our real task now," 
added U Nyunt Wei, "is to counter the propaganda of the 
regime that has Kofi Annan and others in the international 
community, especially Special Envoy Razali, believing that 
the generals are serious about a transition to democracy." 
The NLD leaders described the drafting of a new constitution 
as a fait accompli and said they were offended that some 
countries insist the NLD get on the boat or risk missing an 
opportunity to partake in a transition.  "We don't like the 
captain of the boat," said U Nyunt Wei, "and we don't like 
the destination." 
 
9. (C) Comment:  U Aung Shwe and U Lwin were in very good 
spirits and fully engaged in rejuvenating NLD activities at 
party headquarters.  U Aung Shwe, who at age 86 is the eldest 
of the CEC members, appeared to be in robust health while 80 
year-old U Lwin, who suffered a stroke in the mid-1990s, was 
frail but was deftly handling a spontaneous press conference 
when we arrived.  Although their release, and the opening of 
party headquarters, has given the party a visible boost of 
much needed morale, we suspect that the pro-democracy 
movement will remain hobbled until the release of ASSK and U 
Tin Oo and the re-opening of all party offices.  End Comment. 
 
Martinez