US embassy cable - 04ABUDHABI1197

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 001197 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARP, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/14 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TC 
SUBJECT: UAE CABINET CHANGES COMING 
 
Classified by Ambassador Marcelle M. Wahba, Reasons 
1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: The UAE's Cabinet of Ministers, 
unchanged in seven years, is due for a shake-up, and 
some weaker ministries may be abolished, according to 
our contacts.  Changes are coming to the senior ranks 
of the military as well, and the Government may form a 
new ministry for women's affairs.  While changes are 
clearly in the works, the timing is less certain. 
Consultations among the emirates' rulers are delicate 
because they want to reach consensus and no one wants 
to lose face.  Still, the changes being envisioned 
would have a profound effect on the 33-year-old 
federation, although the ruling families will 
undoubtedly continue to hold most of the key 
portfolios.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) Some UAE Government ministers will be replaced 
and some of the federal ministries abolished under 
plans being discussed among the UAE's senior 
leadership.  Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of 
State for Foreign Affairs Shaykh Hamdan bin Zayed Al- 
Nahyan (HbZ) and his brother Abu Dhabi Deputy Crown 
Prince and Armed Forces COS Shaykh Mohammed bin Zayed 
Al-Nahyan (MbZ) have told the Ambassador on several 
occasions about needed changes.  "We want to change 
faces in the Cabinet as well as look at abolishing 
several ministries" to ensure they strengthen the UAE 
federation, HbZ said.  MbZ told the Ambassador that he 
wanted to see a Cabinet that could meet the challenges 
of today, and that would require substantive change. 
On April 11, he told her the Cabinet changes were not 
imminent as more time is needed to reach consensus on 
key positions. 
 
3. (C) Many "faces" would need to change in the 
current Cabinet because they are ineffective and not 
up to the challenges of the times, while other 
ministries need to be consolidated or abolished, HbZ 
said.  For instance, he questioned the need for 
ministries of Information and Culture, of Planning, or 
of Petroleum and Mineral Resources.  He suggested that 
one Minister of Energy would suffice to consolidate 
the petroleum and all energy sectors, while the 
Supreme Petroleum Council would continue to set policy 
for the oil sector.  Abu Dhabi Emirate currently bears 
more than 90 percent of the federal budget costs.  A 
more effective Cabinet is needed to support and 
strengthen the federation, and to ensure that Abu 
Dhabi continues to be responsive to the needs of the 
poorer emirates, HbZ said. 
 
4.  (U) The current 21-member federal Cabinet, 
comprising 17 ministers and four ministers of state, 
is virtually unchanged since it was appointed on March 
25, 1997.  The only modification to the Cabinet list 
since 1997 came last October when HbZ was appointed 
Deputy Prime Minister and thus added a second title to 
his name.  UAE Prime Minister and Vice President 
Shaykh Maktoum bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, the Ruler of 
Dubai, has served in his capacity since November 11, 
1990. 
 
Replacing the Prime Minister key to other changes 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
5. (C) Finding a replacement for Shaykh Maktoum is the 
key to making other changes, MbZ said.  Federal 
positions are farmed out among emirates to provide 
fair representation and ensure national unity. 
Maktoum seems likely to be replaced by his younger 
brother, the dynamic Crown Prince of Dubai, Shaykh 
Mohammed bin Rashid (MbR).  Maktoum already has handed 
control of the day-to-day affairs of the emirate to 
MbR, and spends much of the year in London.  Others 
speculate that Maktoum would be replaced by the Ruler 
of Fujairah, Shaykh Hamad bin Mohammad Al-Sharqi. 
There are also rumors that MbR's brother, Deputy Ruler 
of Dubai and Minister of Finance and Industry Hamdan 
bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, is competing for the Prime 
Minister position.  In our view, MbR is the more 
likely successor to Shaykh Maktoum as Prime Minister, 
because Dubai would insist on retaining the position 
and Abu Dhabi is unlikely to approve of Hamdan bin 
Rashid. 
 
Changes in the Armed Forces 
--------------------------- 
 
6. (C) If MbR were to succeed Shaykh Maktoum as Prime 
Minister, that could leave open the question of who 
would succeed MbR as Minister of Defense, although MbR 
is likely to keep both portfolios.  We had thought 
that MbZ would take over the Defense portfolio and his 
current Deputy Chief of Staff, Staff Major General 
Hamad Mohammed Thani Al-Rumaithy, would move into the 
Armed Forces COS position.  However, MbZ told the 
Ambassador on April 11 that he has no intention of 
taking on a ministerial position, preferring to stay 
on as Armed Forces COS where the real power of the 
defense portfolio resides.  Eventually, he would cede 
that position to MGen Hamad Thani, he said.  MbZ 
previewed other changes within the military's senior 
ranks.  Air Force and Air Defense Commander, Staff Air 
Vice-Marshal Khalid Abdulla Mobarak Al-Buainain, who 
performs better on "external affairs" than he does on 
"internal affairs," likely will be replaced by his 
deputy.  Commander of the Naval Forces, Staff Air Vice 
Admiral Pilot Suhail Al-Murur, will be retired. 
Director of Military Intelligence Brigadier Mohammed 
Al-Neyyadi will be replaced by his very capable deputy 
Issa Al-Mazrouie.  MbZ said these changes are likely 
to take place by the end of the calendar year. 
 
Foreign policy portfolio affected 
--------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Changes under consideration concern the Foreign 
Ministry portfolio.  HbZ told the Ambassador that 
while he would like to devote all his time to the 
Deputy Prime Minister position, he is likely to remain 
as Deputy Prime Minister and become Foreign Minister, 
replacing Rashid Abdullah Al-Nuaimi.  HbZ may appoint 
a strong Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, and a 
strong deputy to run the foreign ministry.  The 
Ambassador asked HbZ whether he would appoint his 
younger brother Shaykh Abdullah bin Zayed (AbZ) as 
MinState for Foreign Affairs (since he was thinking 
about abolishing AbZ's Ministry of Information).  HbZ 
replied that AbZ would be excellent at the MFA, not 
just because he is his brother, but because he is very 
capable.  The current Foreign Minister's son, Abdullah 
Rashid, who has been the Assistant Under Secretary for 
Political Affairs, was recently promoted to be the MFA 
Under Secretary and the person running the Ministry. 
 
Health, Communications: Time to pack? 
------------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Additional Cabinet changes can be expected at 
the ministries of Health, Communications, and Economy 
and Commerce, our contacts say.  Health Minister Hamad 
Abdul Rahman Al-Madfa is almost certain to be 
replaced.  Our contacts say Al-Madfa has told some of 
his close friends that he is on his way out, although 
we do not know whether his departure is voluntary. 
Ahmad Humaid Al-Tayer, the Minister of Communications 
and a Dubayyan, will be replaced because Shaykh Hamdan 
bin Rashid wants him out.  According to our sources, 
Humaid Al-Tayer is not on good terms with Shaykh 
Hamdan bin Rashid's close allies, such as Minister of 
State for Financial and Industrial Affairs, Dr. 
Mohammed Khalfan bin Kharbash, also from Dubai, and 
Khalid Al-Bustani at the Ministry of Finance and 
Industry. 
 
Economy and Commerce: "Backward-thinking" 
----------------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) The Ministry of Economy and Commerce, currently 
headed by Shaykh Fahim bin Sultan Al-Qasimi, is not 
among the better performers and could be the target of 
a shake-up.  We have heard that the portfolio may be 
given to Shaykh Hamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, who headed 
the UAE's delegation to Davos and whose abilities have 
been praised by elder statesman and Ruler's 
Representative in the Eastern Region of Abu Dhabi 
Shaykh Tahnoun bin Mohammed Al-Nahyan.  Ministry of 
Finance and Industry contacts told us that their 
ministry was given responsibility for the TIFA 
negotiations  ven though the Ministry of Economy and 
Commerce holds the WTO trade portfolio  ecause 
Finance Ministry staff were "more forward-thinking" 
than their colleagues in the Economy and Commerce 
Ministry.  We have also heard that HbZ has expended 
political capital to ensure that Kharbash, a 
technocrat, had the lead on TIFA and not Shaykh Al- 
Qasimi.  The Ministry of Economy and Commerce was 
conspicuously absent at the TIFA Council signing in 
Washington. 
 
A Cabinet first for Emirati women? 
---------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) The correspondent for Al-Sharq Al-Awsat in Abu 
Dhabi reported that Nora Al-Suweidi, the president of 
the General Women's Union, had been tabbed to head a 
new ministry for women's affairs, a rumor we have 
heard off and on for some time.  AbZ's media advisor, 
Ibrahim Al-Abed, said the creation of a women's 
affairs portfolio in the government is a possibility. 
In the UAE, there are two official bodies that pay 
specific attention to the interests of Emirati women 
and children.  The first is the Social Affairs section 
of the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs and is 
headed by the country's top female civil servant.  The 
other is the UAE Women's Federation, headed by the 
wife of the President, Shaykha Fatima bint Mubarak. 
 
Cabinet changes: The rumor mill 
------------------------------- 
 
11. (C) Rumors of ministerial changes occasionally 
breed in the open majlis of prominent Emirati family 
members.  The correspondent for Al-Sharq Al-Awsat 
picked up one of those rumors several weeks ago and 
wrote an article suggesting that AbZ would become the 
UAE's new Minister for Petroleum.  AbZ media advisor 
Al-Abed told us there was no basis for the report. 
Al-Abed said Cabinet changes are a delicate topic.  He 
said people do not appreciate the time-consuming 
process involving consultations among the ruling 
family members.  The rulers "need to sleep on things" 
that are as important as this.  Al-Abed conceded, "No 
one has any respect for the Cabinet.  It is weak and 
ineffective." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
12. (C) Changes in the UAE's federal Cabinet and 
ministries may not be imminent, as MbZ confided, but 
the leadership is definitely mulling over the 
permutations.  Those permutations are often delicate 
due to intra-family and inter-emirate considerations, 
so we understand why the Emiratis would want to take 
their time.  Creating a new portfolio for women's 
affairs would be a major development, as would the 
long-awaited decision by any of the emirates' rulers 
to appoint women to the Federal National Council. 
Changes that remove ineffective, non-performing 
ministers, or ministries, are needed for the good of 
the federation, but any formula for doing so would 
need to include a plan to "compensate" each emirate 
that was "stripped" of a ministership.  Due to the 
stigma of losing face, finding a competent substitute 
who can do the job is often preferable to actually 
sacking an incompetent official. Deputy Prime Minister 
Shaykh Sultan bin Zayed Al-Nahyan still attends 
Cabinet meetings in spite of HbZ's appointment to the 
same position last fall. 
 
13. (C) Changes in the military commands that MbZ 
discussed with the Ambassador are not surprising. 
Since being appointed as Deputy Crown Prince of Abu 
Dhabi and Deputy Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive 
Council, MbZ has had considerably less time to devote 
to the armed forces, and has had to delegate more to 
MGen. Hamed Thani, the Deputy Chief of Staff. 
Whenever the Cabinet changes take place, it is clear 
that MbZ is playing a principal role and will take his 
time to get as close as possible to what he wants 
while reaching consensus across tribal and emirate 
lines with the many players involved in this very 
complicated process. 
WAHBA