US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO669

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000669 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, S/CT; NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958:     DECL: 04-20-14 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, PHUM, CE, Elections, Political Parties 
SUBJECT:  Sri Lanka update:  Parliament set to reopen 
amid continued tension in ruling coalition 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo 662, and previous 
-      (B) FBIS Reston VA DTG 170842Z Apr 04 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) In this update message, Mission reviews the 
following political developments in Sri Lanka: 
 
-- Parliament is set to reopen on April 22, with the 
selection of a Speaker one of the first tasks; 
 
-- Tensions continue between the President's party and 
its extremist coalition partner; 
 
-- Former Foreign Minister out of parliament, lashes out 
at party and ex-PM; 
 
-- Provincial council elections set for April 24 in 
northwestern Sri Lanka; 
 
-- Reports continue that President Kumaratunga plans to 
amend the constitution. 
 
2.  (C) PARLIAMENT SET TO REOPEN:  Following the 
parliamentary elections of April 2, Parliament is set to 
convene on April 22 with its new political composition. 
The first order of business of the new Parliament will 
be to elect a Speaker and, at present, the sole 
candidate for the post is United National Party (UNP) MP 
W.J.M. Lokubandara (former minister of justice and 
Buddhist affairs) -- see Reftel.  Contacts have 
indicated that, as President Kumaratunga's United 
People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) is still lacking a 
majority, it will not put forward a candidate, thereby 
avoiding a possible loss in the voting.  Although the 
pro-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) Tamil 
National Alliance (TNA) has said it will not publicly 
announce any support for a Speaker candidate until April 
22, the group has already stated that it will sit in 
opposition to the UPFA.  The Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) 
party, with its nine monks-cum-MPs, has reportedly said 
it will decide its support on an issue-by-issue basis 
and will not align with either the UPFA -- and create a 
majority -- or with the UNP -- and strengthen the 
opposition. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT:  The opening of Parliament, with the 
selection of the Speaker, promises to be interesting. 
The Speaker position can be pivotal within the 
government body, as the person presides over all votes, 
including any impeachment motions.  Although the post 
holder is supposed to be neutral, Lokubandara would 
almost certainly favor the UNP, a fact made more likely 
by his reportedly poor relationship with the President. 
This is the first test of the UPFA government and it is 
not clear how the President will attain the seven seats 
she needs for a majority so that further business in the 
Parliament concludes in her favor.  END COMMENT. 
 
4.  (C) CONTINUED TENSIONS WITHIN COALITION:  Tensions 
continue to resonate within President Kumaratunga's UPFA 
political grouping.  (Note:  "UPFA" is the party name 
for the political grouping of the Sri Lanka Freedom 
Party "SLFP" and the extremist Marxist Janatha Vimukthi 
Peramuna "JVP," among others.)  The JVP remains angered 
by the partial gutting (significant portions were 
reassigned to ministries held by other parties in the 
UPFA) of the four ministries promised to them by the 
President before the election(see Reftels).  An April 17 
meeting between senior members of the JVP and President 
Kumaratunga to address the dispute ended without 
resolution.  According to contacts, the key argument is 
the Mahaveli (interior river system) Development sector 
that was removed from the agriculture ministry promised 
to the JVP and remains in an SLFP-held river basin 
development ministry.  As a result of the disagreement, 
no JVP MPs have been sworn in as ministers yet and it 
appears unlikely that they will do so before Parliament 
opens on April 22. 
 
5.  (C) COMMENT:  Tensions between the SLFP and JVP are 
nothing new -- for example, the JVP boycotted the 
Cabinet swearing-in ceremony on April 10 due to this 
very disagreement.  Some of the portfolio items that 
were removed have been put back into the ministries set 
aside for the JVP, such as the National Film 
Corporation, which has been returned to the Culture 
Ministry.  What remains to be seen is how far the JVP is 
willing to push the issue of portfolio allocations, and 
the degree to which the President will push back.  After 
their electoral success, the JVP will certainly make 
their displeasure felt if they get the feeling that the 
SLFP is placing them on the back burner.  These 
continued tensions serve to illustrate the fragile 
nature of the alliance.  END COMMENT. 
 
6.  (C) FORMER FM LASHES OUT AT FORMER PM:  Former 
Foreign Minister Tyronne Fernando has lashed out 
publicly against the United National Party (UNP) and 
former PM Ranil Wickremesinghe after he was left off of 
the "national list" of MPs.  In a media briefing held on 
April 16, Fernando said that he was "in the process of 
reassessing the party leadership, policies, and my 
affiliation to the party," noting that he had received 
an invitation from Minister of Tourism Anura 
Bandaranaike to join the UPFA.  Fernando also said he 
had sent a letter to now-Opposition Leader 
Wickremesinghe detailing his dissatisfaction at being 
left off the national list.  Press reports on April 20 
stated that the UNP was considering possible 
disciplinary action against Fernando for his comments. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT:  Fernando's umbrage is not without 
justification, considering his previous high-level 
position.  Further, the decision to exclude him from the 
national list means that Fernando will be out of 
Parliament for the first time since the 1970s.  There 
has been speculation among contacts that the UNP axed 
Fernando because it suspected him of currying favor with 
President Kumaratunga in the runup to the elections. 
Tracking with this, in his media briefing Fernando did 
state that the President was a "moderate leader" and "we 
have to accept the fact that she is the President."  END 
COMMENT. 
 
8.  (C) PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS SET FOR APRIL 24: 
Provincial Council Elections for the "Wayamba" province, 
located in the north-central area of Sri Lanka, will 
take place on April 24.  Numerous local election 
monitors have reportedly been dispatched, and security 
has been increased in the run-up to the election. 
UNP and UPFA candidates have publicly expressed 
confidence about their chances for success in this 
election, which is the first election in Sri Lanka since 
the Parliamentary elections earlier this month.  In the 
Wayamba election, there are 830 candidates vying for 50 
council seats.  The Wayamba provincial council was held 
by the UNP from 1988 until 1998, when the SLFP managed 
to gain control of the council.  Contacts report that 
they expect the UPFA grouping to win the April 24 
election. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT:  As noted above, the Wayamba election 
is the first election since the April 2 general 
election.  The outcome of the provincial council 
election may indicate which way the political wind is 
blowing -- if voters are still behind the UPFA, which 
has weathered several crises in its first few weeks in 
power.  There are seven provincial councils in all, with 
elections for the  six others set to take place starting 
in May, and the results of these elections will provide 
insight as to how voters view Sri Lanka's changed 
political landscape.  END COMMENT. 
 
10.  (C) POSSIBLE PLANS TO AMEND CONSTITUTION:  Reports 
continue to circulate that President Kumaratunga plans 
to develop a new constitution, transforming the 
parliament into some type of constituent assembly to 
achieve her goal.  One of the aims of the new 
constitution would be to abolish the executive 
presidency and transfer the bulk of that office's power 
to the post of prime minister; another is reportedly to 
change the electoral process.  (To facilitate her 
efforts towards the proposed change, the President has 
retained the constitutional affairs portfolio for 
herself, instead of appointing a minister.)  In her 
first step, the President has established an advisory 
committee -- including FM Kadirgamar and constitutional 
lawyers  -- to develop a draft constitution.  The 
committee has reportedly met at least once, but 
presidential contacts have been quiet on any possible 
developments. 
 
11.  (C) COMMENT:  The idea of eliminating the executive 
presidency for a more powerful prime ministership has 
been advocated at different times over the years by both 
the UNP and the President's own Sri Lanka Freedom Party 
(SLFP).  This time, however, many observers are not 
supportive of the President's preference for a 
constituent assembly for affecting such a change. 
Contacts note that a constituent assembly requires only 
a simple majority for passage of items, rather than the 
two-thirds majority required by a Parliament.  With her 
alliance not even currently commanding a majority in 
Parliament, if the President goes ahead with her 
proposed constitutional changes, she will have a 
tremendous challenge to enact them, no matter which 
route she takes.  END COMMENT. 
 
12.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD