US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV2231

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002231 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI INTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: POLLS SHOW DISENGAGEMENT PLAN WINNING LIKUD 
MAJORITY 
 
REF: A. TEL AVIV 2206 
     B. TEL AVIV 2199 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) an 
d (d). 
 
1.  (C) Polls conducted after the April 14 meeting between 
President Bush and PM Sharon show Sharon's disengagement plan 
winning a majority of Likud voter support.  Major media 
analysts, however, noted that intervening events -- such as a 
significant terrorist attack or FinMin Benyamin Netanyahu's 
public opposition to the plan -- could threaten the plan's 
approval in the planned May 2 Likud referendum on the issue. 
Likud campaigns for and against the plan are underway, with 
PM Sharon's son, Omri, threatening fellow Likud politicians 
on April 15 that the PM may resign if the referendum fails to 
back the plan.  End summary. 
 
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Polls Show Clear Majority for Plan 
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2.  (U) According to three media polls conducted on April 15, 
PM Sharon's unilateral disengagement plan, the contents of 
which has appeared in the April 16 press, enjoys the support 
of a majority of Likud's some 200,000 registered members: 
 
-- Private poll broadcast by IDF radio: 57.5 percent of Likud 
voters support the plan, 37.5 percent oppose it and 5 percent 
are undecided. 
 
-- Yedioth Ahronoth poll: 54 percent of Likud voters support 
the plan, 32 percent are opposed and 14 percent are undecided. 
 
-- Ma'ariv poll: 49.4 percent of Likud voters support the 
plan, 38.4 percent are against and 12.2 percent are undecided. 
 
3.  (C) While the polls indicate a comfortable majority for 
the plan, Uri Rosen, writing for Ma'ariv on April 16, 
cautioned that "almost any unexpected event, ranging from a 
public statement by Netanyahu against the plan to a terror 
attack staged especially on the day of the vote could change 
the picture."  Rosen, however, discounted the assertion by 
some observers that disengagement opponents are more likely 
to actually vote than supporters of the plan.  According to 
Rosen, a Ma'ariv examination of poll results indicates that 
"contrary to the arguments raised by Netanyahu's people over 
the past few days, (note: -- and contrary to what Omri Sharon 
asserted to poloff on April 14 per ref A) the supporters of 
the disengagement plan (will) vote at nearly the same level 
of participation as the plan's opponents...."  Rosen also 
noted that it may take some time before the positive effect 
of the Bush-Sharon meeting "trickles down to public opinion" 
causing a possible "soar" in support. 
 
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Bibi and Omri Playing All the Cards 
------------------------------------ 
 
4.  (SBU) Yedioth Ahronoth reported on April 16 that "close 
associates" of FinMin Netanyahu indicated the Finance 
Minister would oppose the plan "unless he gets a satisfactory 
answer to the central question of the separation fence and 
whether the settlement blocs will be inside the fence." 
Netanyahu reportedly told Sharon in a telephone conversation 
while the PM was in Washington that the withdrawal plan 
should not be implemented until the fence is complete. 
Yedioth reported that "sources in Sharon's bureau admitted" 
that if Netanyahu uses "all his political clout" against the 
plan, Sharon may find it "difficult to pass the plan in the 
referendum and the Cabinet." 
 
5. (C) Sharon has already spoken with other Likud ministers 
and political leaders (ref B) about the plan and intends to 
meet with ministers, most likely on Sunday, April 18.  Two 
key ministers, Limor Livnat and Silvan Shalom, have said that 
they will take a position on the plan after they learn more 
about it directly from the PM.  Sharon is widely believed to 
have already lined up Labor to take the place of the National 
Union coalition partner if the cabinet approves the plan. 
(Note: National Union Chairman Avigdor Lieberman announced on 
April 16 that his party would leave the coalition "as soon as 
the plan is approved.")  The Knesset, now in recess, has 
scheduled an extraordinary session on April 22 to learn 
directly from the PM about his plan.  Shinui MK Ehud Rassabi 
told poloff on April 15 that he was confident Sharon's plan 
would get through the referendum and asserted that Netanyahu 
would "definitely support the plan." 
 
6. (C) Likud MK Omri Sharon, who has joined with Defense 
Minister Shaul Mofaz (ref A) and other Likud members to 
campaign for the plan, has, according to Ha'aretz, been 
meeting with local Likud branch heads warning them that the 
prime minister would resign if the disengagement plan is not 
approved in the referendum and alluding to the loss of 
Likud's 40 Knesset seats and new elections if his father 
resigns. 
 
 
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LeBaron