US embassy cable - 04JAKARTA3519

C O N F I D E N T I A L  JAKARTA 003519 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, ID 
SUBJECT: TIGHT RACE FOR GOLKAR'S PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION AS 
KALLA REPORTEDLY QUITS TO BECOME YUDHOYONO'S RUNNING MATE 
 
Classified By: Political Officer David R. Greenberg, reason 1.4 (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (C) Golkar party Chairman Akbar Tandjung and retired 
General Wiranto vie in a tight race for Golkar's presidential 
nomination.  Although Akbar enjoys some institutional 
advantages, we cannot predict the outcome of the April 20 
Golkar convention, as hundreds of party chapters will 
determine the winner in a semi-secret ballot in which, 
apparently, bribery will play a substantial role.  Whoever 
wins, the convention will have a major and possibly decisive 
impact on the presidential race.  Golkar sources and advisors 
to Democratic Party presidential nominee Susilo Bambang 
Yudhoyono have told us that Coordinating Minister for 
People's Welfare Jusuf Kalla has decided to withdraw from the 
convention and become Yudhoyono's running mate.  A 
Yudhoyono-Kalla ticket would have two capable leaders with 
clean reputations, but absent further partners it lacks a 
political machine with grassroots level presence.  End 
Summary. 
 
THE GOLKAR CONVENTION 
--------------------- 
 
2. (U) Golkar will hold its presidential convention on April 
20 in Jakarta.  Most Golkar officials describe it as 
determining the party's presidential nominee, although Golkar 
Chairman Akbar Tandjung has refused to guarantee that he will 
seek the presidency if he wins the convention.  The 
convention begins with brief presentations by participants, 
after which the party votes via a semi-secret balloting 
process.  (The Secretaries-General of provincial and 
city/regency level chapters witness the voting of the chapter 
chairpersons.)  Convention rules state that whoever wins a 
plurality wins the convention, but we understand Golkar 
leaders might institute a runoff if no one wins a majority in 
a first round vote. 
 
3. (U) Lower level party branches hold the majority of the 
convention voting power.  There are 545 votes in play 
(contrary to press reports which cite a variety of other 
figures): 
 
- The party Central Board has an 18-vote block (which Akbar 
Tandjung apparently has locked up); 
- 10 separate organizations associated with Golkar have one 
vote apiece; 
- 32 province-level party chapters have three-vote blocks; and 
- 421 city/regency level party chapters have one vote apiece. 
 
A TOUGH FIGHT 
------------- 
 
4. (C) Although six candidates currently participate in the 
convention process -- Akbar Tandjung, Wiranto, Surya Paloh, 
Aburizal Bakrie, Prabowo Subianto, and Jusuf Kalla -- all of 
our contacts agree that the race comes down to Akbar and 
Wiranto and remains too close to call.  Members of both camps 
told us recently that they had locked up roughly 200 
convention votes and expected to prevail.  Akbar enjoys some 
institutional advantages: he has a strong network among 
chapter heads; a long history of involvement in Golkar 
politics; and can reward supporters with positions at the 
party's upcoming (October) Congress (just as he could place 
supporters on the party's list of legislative candidates). 
Although the party appeared to fall short of its target in 
the April 5 legislative elections, Akbar's supporters can 
claim credit for the party's increase in the popular vote in 
absolute terms; its new plurality in the House of 
Representatives, including a gain of seats in absolute terms; 
and its number-one finish in more provinces than in 1999. 
 
THE MARKET VALUE OF CONVENTION VOTES 
------------------------------------ 
 
5. (C) Our contacts (and instincts) tell us bribery will play 
a significant role in shaping the convention outcome.  Nasir 
Tamara, a Wiranto campaign advisor, told us his own camp 
entices each city/regency chapter head with 25 million Rupiah 
(almost 3,000 USD) for its vote, while provincial chapter 
heads merited twice that sum.  A separate Wiranto associate 
alleged Akbar Tandjung offered "a huge amount of money" to 
chapter heads.  Meanwhile, Golkar Vice Chairman Aulia Rachman 
told us that Akbar provided chapter heads a few thousand 
dollars -- "to show respect" -- but that these sums paled in 
comparison to those doled out by media magnate Surya Paloh: 
almost 6,000 USD to the lower-level chapter heads and 1 
billion Rupiah (over 100,000 USD) for provincial chapter 
votes.  (Comment: The latter figure strains credibility, 
given Surya Paloh's poor prospects for winning, but we do not 
doubt that Aulia passed this rumor along in good faith.  End 
comment.)  Aulia claimed the strength of Akbar's network 
would prevail, since Akbar encouraged chapter heads to accept 
opponents' offers but vote for him anyway.  According to a 
Singaporean diplomat, Wiranto's camp prepared for that 
possibility by offering half the payments up-front, with the 
rest only after Wiranto's convention victory. 
 
KALLA TO WITHDRAW, JOIN YUDHOYONO 
--------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) On April 16, Golkar Vice Chairman Fahmi Idris told us 
he had spoken directly with Coordinating Minister for 
People's Welfare Jusuf Kalla, who confirmed he would withdraw 
from the convention and become retired General Yudhoyono's 
running mate.  Fahmi said Kalla -- who has never held a high 
leadership position in Golkar -- would not bring extensive 
party machinery to the ticket, but brought enough "Golkar 
identity" that he would help Yudhoyono to become an 
alternative choice in this election for traditional Golkar 
voters.  Fahmi, who has publicly aired his distaste for 
Akbar, told us he would support the Yudhoyono-Kalla ticket. 
 
7. (C) Two senior figures close to Yudhoyono also have told 
us that this ticket seemed certain.  In addition, politically 
active retired General Luhut Panjaitan told us April 16 he 
had confirmed that Kalla would join Yudhoyono, withdraw from 
the Golkar convention, and resign from the cabinet.  Luhut 
hoped that Akbar, if triumphant at the convention, would 
decide to throw Golkar's support behind the Yudhoyono-Kalla 
ticket. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
8. (C) Yudhoyono advisors noted Kalla appeals to them partly 
because of his prestige in East Indonesia, where Yudhoyono's 
Democratic Party has little strength.  He also strikes us as 
a relatively ethical, intelligent, and competent person who 
can work well with Yudhoyono.  This combination -- the 
subject of great speculation in the media recently -- appears 
to enjoy strong support in the Indonesian business community, 
partly because of Kalla's record as a successful businessman. 
 Neither, however, controls a strong political machine with 
grassroots penetration; this could prove problematic. 
 
9. (C) Kalla's withdrawal should boost Akbar's chances at the 
convention; our contacts estimate more of his supporters lean 
toward Akbar vice Wiranto.  If Akbar does win, we would not 
rule out his aligning with Yudhoyono, if offered substantial 
incentives (e.g., cabinet positions).  This alignment, for 
the first round election, would appear more palatable to 
Golkar leaders if Yudhoyono has assembled a coalition that 
rivals Golkar in size.  With full Golkar backing, Yudhoyono 
would prove an extremely strong contender. 
 
10. (C) On the other hand, however, Akbar could decide to run 
for president.  While he might have difficulty consolidating 
support in Golkar, he could run a credible campaign, 
particularly with a Javanese running mate with a reasonably 
clean reputation and a degree of grassroots support.  Akbar 
could seek the presidency with the understanding that he 
retains the fallback position of supporting Yudhoyono's 
ticket in the runoff if Yudhoyono outperforms him in the 
first round. 
 
11. (C) Should Wiranto prevail at the convention, we would 
expect him to move quickly to solidify his control over the 
Golkar apparatus.  He has cultivated extensive ties with 
other parties and might pull the Prosperous Justice Party 
(PKS) and Abdurrachman Wahid's National Awakening Party into 
a coalition (septels report on affinity for Wiranto in PKS). 
Together, those three parties appear to have won around 40 
percent of the vote on April 5.  This action could lead other 
Islamic parties to jump on the bandwagon, generating strong 
momentum for a powerful combination of cooperative Islamic 
parties and Golkar's extensive machinery under the leadership 
of a charismatic Javanese retired General. 
 
BOYCE