US embassy cable - 04HARARE649

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000649 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, D. TEITELBAUM 
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY 
PARIS FOR C. NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ZI, MDC 
SUBJECT: MDC RESTRUCTURING ITSELF FOR ELECTIONS 
 
REF: HARARE 633 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 15, MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai 
reported to the Ambassador that the party was radically 
restructuring itself with a focus on contesting elections, 
despite the fact that the party had not made a final decision 
to contest the March 2005 polls.  Tsvangirai asserted that 
Mugabe's concern for legitimacy constituted an opening for 
the MDC in Zimbabwe's political future.  This analysis misses 
the mark; Mugabe is concerned about legitimacy but also 
appears bent on emasculating the opposition.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) In a discussion at the Residence Tsvangirai opened by 
commenting that in the fallout of the loss in Zengeza (Ref) 
the party was united on the priority of a level playing field 
for future elections.  Tsvangirai thanked the USG for its 
statement condemning the Zengeza poll as unfair, citing a 
similar EU statement issued on April 15 (e-mailed to AF/S). 
He said the party did think Minister Without Portfolio 
Elliott Manyika shot MDC youth Francis Chinozvinya (Ref). 
 
Focus on Elections 
------------------ 
 
3. (C) Tsvangirai reported to the Ambassador that in an April 
3 - 4 retreat with the thirty-seven member MDC National 
Executive, the party leadership had resolved to reorganize 
the party with a strategy to prepare for upcoming elections. 
Tsvangirai said the re-organization was intended to maintain 
 
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the party's vertical command structure, while also allowing 
for horizontal consultation among party structures and 
avoiding exclusion of any segment of the membership.  He said 
the party would endeavor to be more proactive rather than 
reactive, less functionally driven and more program driven. 
While the leadership itself would be focused on strategic 
decisions, authority for operations would be delegated to 
directors of different departments. 
 
4. (C) Tsvangirai said the defining feature of the 
re-organization would be an elections directorate within the 
President's office led by Ian Makoni, MDC advisor and CEO of 
the Zimbabwean financial services company First Mutual. 
Tsvangirai said all other program areas would fall under this 
 
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elections directorate, including departments focused on 
constituencies such as civil society, women, youth, labor, 
and one on contacts with the diplomatic community. 
Tsvangirai said the party would attempt to encourage these 
 
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partners to play a greater role in party activities.  He said 
the party would sometimes hold direct primaries to select 
candidates - to strengthen grassroots connections - as 
opposed to the past practice of selection by party structures. 
 
5. (C) Tsvangirai said the new organization and new 
appointments would be finalized by about April 19 before 
presentation to the broader party staff and membership. 
 
Boycott or Not? 
--------------- 
 
6. (C) Tsvangirai said that notwithstanding the party's 
refocus on elections, they had not made a final decision 
whether to boycott the March 2005 general parliamentary 
elections.  Tsvangirai said that at the retreat Dr. Lovemore 
Madhuku, Chairman of the National Constitutional Assembly 
(NCA), asked what the purpose of contesting elections would 
be: to stay in Parliament or to win power?  Madhuku noted 
that the MDC could not win power given the prevailing 
elections environment, and even a democratic outcome from the 
2005 polls would not change the whole political scenario. 
 
Mugabe and His Legacy 
--------------------- 
 
7. (C) Tsvangirai commented that he thought Mugabe was trying 
to spruce up his image and rescue his legacy before retiring. 
 He said that legitimacy was one of Mugabe's top concerns as 
evidenced by the anti-corruption campaign and pursuit of 
electoral victories.  Tsvangirai said it was important for 
the MDC to send signals to Mugabe that he could retire with 
dignity.  He said that some within ZANU-PF viewed Mugabe as a 
spent force and no longer depended on his political 
patronage.  Tsvangirai said that Mugabe's anti-corruption 
campaign had hit an internal wall within ZANU-PF, i.e. senior 
officials like Speaker of Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa and 
Finance Minister Christopher Kuruneri were unlikely to be 
prosecuted. 
 
Talks on Elections 
------------------ 
 
8. (C) Turning to the Ncube-Chinamasa talks, Tsvangirai 
reported that Chinamasa had recently said they could talk 
about elections and the playing field, but not about the 
presidency.  Tsvangirai interpreted this to mean that 
political co-habitation was not presently on the table. 
Tsvangirai emphasized that the MDC was still insisting on the 
 
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need to discuss political legitimacy and to hold presidential 
elections concurrent with parliamentary ones. 
 
Likely Maize Shortfall 
---------------------- 
 
9. (C) Tsvangirai discussed food assistance to Zimbabwe and 
noted that Minister of Agriculture Joseph Made has predicted 
that Zimbabwe will harvest 1.8 million metric tons of maize 
this year, sufficient for the country's needs.  Tsvangirai 
said Shadow Minister of Agriculture Renson Gasela predicted 
Zimbabwe would harvest 6 - 800,000 metric tons, leaving a 
shortfall of about or over a million metric tons. 
 
10. (C) COMMENT:  In the context of conflicting press 
reports, Tsvangirai put to rest (for now) questions about 
whether the party had decided to boycott the 2005 
parliamentary elections.  It appears they have not made a 
final decision, and furthermore are focusing the whole party 
toward contesting elections.  Other MDC leaders have 
projected this message publicly.  The discussion at the 
retreat about contesting the 2005 polls points to the 
difficult position the party is in.  Even a favorable outcome 
to the 2005 polls would not decisively alter the overall 
political landscape because ZANU-PF would still control the 
presidency.  The anti-corruption campaign appears more a 
consolidation of power within ZANU-PF and a public relations 
tactic rather than a reflection of Mugabe's concern for 
legitimacy and his legacy.  It remains Tsvangirai's and the 
MDC's hope that Mugabe's concern for legitimacy represents an 
opening for the MDC in Zimbabwe's political life.  We would 
agree the concept of legitimacy is important to Mugabe, but 
we see the ruling party manufacturing its own definition of 
that, rather than accepting international opinion, or a real 
role for the MDC in Zimbabwe's political future. 
SULLIVAN