US embassy cable - 04LJUBLJANA333

UNCLAS  LJUBLJANA 000333 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ECON, SI 
SUBJECT:  RUPEL WALKING ON THIN ICE 
 
REF: (A) LJUBLJANA 0292 AND PREVIOUS, (B) LJUBLJANA 
 
0212 AND PREVIOUS 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  FM Rupel sent a public letter to 
National Assembly members on 13 April openly opposing 
the nomination of State Prosecutor General Zdenka Cerar 
to replace Ivan Bizjak as Justice Minister.  The letter 
also pointedly criticizes the governing coalition for 
abusing its strong parliamentary position at the 
expense of political consensus on issues of national 
interest.  Media spin in English-language press outlets 
focused on Cerar's statements implying that the letter 
was nothing more than Rupel taking revenge on her for 
the diplomatic academy case (ref B).  Slovenian- 
language commentary appears more broadly focused on 
trashing Rupel's reputation and record via a less-than- 
strict adherence to the facts.  Rupel issued a 
clarifying statement on 15 April that unconvincingly 
attempts to cast the controversy as a misinterpretation 
of his original intent, explaining that he faulted 
Cerar's manner of fighting for the ministerial slot 
rather than Rop's nomination of her. We don't know what 
Rupel's intent was, but he has stepped out on a limb in 
openly challenging PM Rop, the LDS political 
strategists, and the coalition leadership.  Rop has 
deferred announcing any official punishment of Rupel 
until his five new Cabinet ministers are in place (ref 
A), but Rupel's future is far from certain.  This and 
other incidents further exacerbate unity problems 
within both the coalition and the LDS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U) On April 7, 2004, the three Peoples Party (SLS) 
ministers resigned from their GoS positions following 
the party's exclusion from all coalition decision- 
making after SLS failed to support two coalition 
ministers facing no-confidence votes (ref A).  On April 
9, 2004 PM Rop proposed technocrat replacements for the 
three ministers to the Parliament, with coalition 
agreement:  State Prosecutor General Zdenka Cerar for 
Justice Minister, Marko Pavliha for Agriculture 
Minister, and Milan Pogacnik for Transport Minister. 
Opposition parties have only objected to Cerar's 
nomination, based on concerns over her performance as 
State Prosecutor. 
 
3.  (U) On 13 April, Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel 
sent a personal letter to National Assembly members in 
which he openly opposed Rop's proposal of Cerar for the 
Minister of Justice.  In his letter Rupel claimed Cerar 
is not an appropriate candidate for the position, given 
that she "frequently proceeded in contradiction with 
the proverbial independence of judiciary" in the 
execution of her current duties and that nominating her 
for minister would be contrary to the "realization" of 
European standards and would cause Slovenia to become 
an object of derision.  He also accused Cerar of "being 
responsible for delays in solving some of the most 
sensitive cases, such as SIB Bank, in which even some 
prominent LDS members are involved." 
 
4.  (U) Rupel's letter went on to pointedly criticize 
the governing style of the coalition itself, and by 
implication, PM Rop and his own Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDS).  Rupel wrote:  "regrettably recently, even 
in cases of national interest, we often decide for 
polarization and elimination instead of gathering 
around the center and looking for consensus.  They [LDS 
and the rest of coalition] disregard the importance of 
understanding and think that simple outvoting and 
deciding with the majority is enough for controlling 
complex social processes.  Even the decisions that 
brought to the separation of SLS and the coalition 
prove that we are in the middle of explicit 
polarization." 
 
5.  (U) On 14 April, Cerar reacted to the letter by 
expressing the hope that she would have the opportunity 
to answer Rupel's charges during her parliamentary 
hearings.  Suggesting that Rupel's comments were 
revenge-based, she also stated, "I regret that this 
personal and political overreaction happened at my 
candidacy in the manner of an irresponsible attempt to 
harm my personal reputation and the reputation of the 
prosecution office and overall judiciary."  She added 
that "...during my leadership, Slovenian State 
Prosecutors never performed under my dictate, nor under 
a political one, but only by the law, and independently 
 
within the framework of their authority." [NOTE: On 15 
April, the National Assembly's International Affairs 
Committee approved Cerar's nomination by a vote of 12- 
5, split along party lines.  Full floor vote is 
scheduled for 19 April.] 
 
6.  (U) Other reaction from GoS officials has been 
reserved.  LDS Education Minister Slavko Gaber (who 
usually finds himself on the opposite side of policy 
and political strategy battles with Rupel) quipped 
"well, you know he likes to write..." when asked to 
comment by TV Slovenia.  PM Rop initially said only 
that "it would be wrong to react too emotionally and 
quickly" to the letter, but that "Cerar will easily 
respond to Rupel's criticisms."  Later on 15 April, 
after consulting with the LDS executive council, Rop 
announced that he would hold off making any decisions 
on Rupel's continued participation in the government 
until after the replacements for Ministers Potocnik, 
Petrin, Bizjak, But, and Presecnik were in place. 
Asked about the executive council views on Rupel's 
future, Rop responded "There are different positions. 
I think that foremost the interests of the state and 
the tasks ahead should be pursued, and of course in 
this context it should be studied how and in what way 
the functioning of the government can be provided 
efficiently."  Rop deferred questions about Rupel's 
continued willingness to serve in the government to 
Rupel himself, but did comment that "it will have to be 
seen whether this is possible." 
 
7.  (SBU) Several prominent newspaper commentators have 
lashed into Rupel already, no doubt (again) smelling 
blood in the water.  Criticisms go well beyond Rupel's 
current act of rebellion, dragging out every 
"indiscretion" -- both real and imagined -- he has 
committed during his tenure.  The attacks are not by 
any stretch of the imagination confined to the facts. 
For example, Rupel has been accused of signing the 
infamous V-10 Statement on Iraq in blatant disregard of 
the Cabinet position, when in fact he was authorized to 
do so.  He also has been accused of paying millions of 
tolars under the table to the nascent diplomatic 
academy in return for a teaching job, when the MFA 
budget and the official Letter of Agreement he signed 
with the academy clearly prove otherwise. 
 
8.  (SBU) Rupel himself reentered the fray late on 15 
April, issuing a public statement clarifying his 
original letter.  In it he presented a less than 
convincing argument that his intent had been 
misinterpreted.  Rupel explained that he did not mean 
to criticize PM Rop for nominating Cerar or the 
coalition for supporting that nomination.  Rather, he 
faulted the manner in which Cerar herself had pursued 
the ministerial slot, since he personally believed it 
was unsuitable for a candidate to actively fight for 
such a prominent position, but instead should await the 
PM's decision and accept it graciously. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9.  (SBU) We don't know to what degree the media's 
bashing of Rupel is being directed by his political 
rivals.  Rupel has a generally adversarial relationship 
with the press, so it would not take much prompting to 
get the ink flowing.  However, Delo's lead editorial on 
the topic was viciously comprehensive in its itemizing 
of Rupel's sins.  The prominent placement of the piece 
in the paper's morning edition is particularly 
noteworthy given that the story of the letter first 
broke in television newscasts the prior evening -- 
after normal filing deadlines.  Additionally, a more 
general editorial by a longtime intellectual adversary 
of Rupel's, which featured a similar laundry list of 
criticisms, appeared in the morning paper on the day 
that Rupel sent the letter. 
 
10.  (SBU) We also don't know Rupel's motivation in 
sending the letter, the implications of which he must 
have realized.  Rupel certainly has no love lost for 
Cerar.  He has disagreed with the direction in which 
domestic political players like Gaber have taken LDS 
recently.  He has a generally good relationship with 
former LDS leader President Drnovsek -- who understands 
the importance of consensus to Slovenian political 
 
tradition and has had a falling out with former protg 
Rop.  Rupel also has a good personal relationship with 
SDS President Janez Jansa -- his old DEMOS colleague. 
In any case, he has taken his professional future in 
his hands with this move, and his survival is far from 
certain. 
 
 
11.  (SBU) The Rupel letter is the latest in a series 
of recent developments that reflect a growing crisis of 
unity among governing coalition parties and within the 
ranks of the LDS.  The constant disputes with SLS when 
it was still a member of the coalition, the SLS 
rebellion and expulsion, the inability of the coalition 
to gain parliamentary approval for candidates for 
routine positions (such as the Head of the Court of 
Audit, the Slovenian Eurojust rep, and a variety of EU 
judicial positions), and now Rupel's letter are the 
most obvious indications of these internal problems. 
However, we have also heard complaints from LDS party 
contacts and from staff within the Prime Minister's 
Office about Rop's general inaccessibility -- routinely 
blamed on the tight control maintained by his personal 
communications adviser and closest aide, Marijana 
Kanduti. 
 
12.  (SBU) Internal rivalries are not new to LDS. 
There have been problems and the emergence of factions 
in the past.  But, the party has always managed to 
overcome disputes and to organize itself at the right 
moment, before elections, (helped by the fact that the 
internal factions have no desire to weaken the 
political powerhouse they are fighting over, and by the 
opposition's historical inability to present voters a 
viable alternative).  However, a crucial electoral 
dynamic is that Slovenian voters (not unlike their 
American counterparts) tend to vote against 
parties/candidates rather than in favor of them. 
Taking this into consideration, LDS will place itself 
in a risky position if it does not settle things 
quickly, as voters could be sufficiently frustrated to 
vote against LDS.  Whether those votes would go to a 
different coalition party (ZLSD, for example) or to the 
opposition is not clear.  However Janez Jansa's SDS is 
positioning itself to take advantage of this 
possibility by announcing the formation of a shadow 
cabinet.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
YOUNG 
 
 
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