US embassy cable - 04AMMAN2882

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002882 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PREF, ASEC, KPAL, IS, JO 
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS WORRY CONCESSIONS TO ISRAEL PAVE WAY 
FOR MORE VIOLENCE 
 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires David Hale for Reasons 1.5 (b)(d) 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C)  Jordanian commentators and contacts almost uniformly 
criticized President Bush's remarks on April 14 endorsing 
Israel's plan to withdraw from Gaza, seeing his statements 
about Palestinians' right of return and Israeli settlements 
as an inappropriate attempt to prejudge final status issues. 
Several contacts said the U.S. statements overshadowed the 
positive news of an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. 
Commentators and contacts deplored the perceived inattention 
to Arab leaders' input and the timing of the announcement, 
just days before King Abdullah's meeting with President Bush. 
 To many, the U.S. concessions to Sharon presented another 
embarrassing predicament before the King, who will be hard 
pressed to highlight the positive aspects of the plan to an 
angry and disillusioned public.  Prince Faisal and the 
Foreign Minister (septel), however, are clearly focused on 
putting the statements in the best possible light.  There is 
no evidence of public protest, but contacts expect some 
protests after Friday prayers April 16.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
BUSH HAS "NO RIGHT" TO PREJUDGE FINAL STATUS ISSUES 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
2.  (C)  There was local criticism of President Bush's 
announcement on April 14 endorsing Israel's Gaza withdrawal 
plan, which was seen as prejudging final status issues, 
particularly the Palestinians' right of return.  Many decried 
the perceived policy shift on settlements, charging that 
sanctioning Israel's retention of settlements in the West 
Bank contravenes international law, previous UN resolutions, 
and long-standing U.S. policy.  Karak Member of Parliament 
Atef Tarawni told Poloff that President Bush does not have 
the right to "cancel" Palestinians' right to return to their 
original home in present-day Israel. 
 
3.  (C)  Jordan University professor Mohammad Khair Mustafa 
said the potential good news about Israel's withdrawal from 
Gaza was obscured by the President's decision to stake out a 
new public position on final status issues at a time when 
anti-Israeli and anti-U.S. sentiment in the region is at an 
all-time high.  Head of Dar al-Jalil Publishing House Ghazi 
Saadi termed President Bush's speech as "very painful," 
particularly with regard to settlements.  He worried that the 
U.S. agreement to allow Israeli settlements to remain in the 
West Bank will significantly reduce the available land to 
which Palestinian refugees can feasibly return.  "How can we 
accommodate those Palestinians who want to return if we have 
no land?" he asked rhetorically.  He said the President 
should have defined under what conditions the "temporary" 
wall could come down, and offered guarantees to the 
Palestinians in this regard. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
JORDANIANS FEAR DOOR OPEN FOR MORE VIOLENCE 
------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Many contacts recognize that any final agreement 
probably would mirror the terms the President defined.  At 
the same time, they worry that the U.S. assurances to Israel 
will embolden Sharon to continue heavy handed tactics against 
Palestinians.  Specifically, some say that U.S. sanctioning 
of Israel's "right to defend itself," and only requiring 
Israel to remove "certain military installations" in Gaza, 
has left the door open for more targeted killings, ongoing 
destruction of Palestinian homes and property, and other 
collective punishment measures against Palestinians that will 
only intensify the cycle of violence, not improve chances for 
peace. 
 
------------------------ 
ANOTHER SLIGHT TO JORDAN 
------------------------ 
 
5.  (C)  During a meeting to discuss other issues, Prince 
Faisal expressed to the Defense Attach his disappointment at 
what he considered concessions to Sharon, yet voiced hope 
that the vague wording might present the opportunity for 
"reinterpretation" more favorable to the Palestinian point of 
view.  Several contacts criticized the way the U.S. and 
Israel appeared to hammer out the terms while seeming to 
ignore requests from Arab leaders -- including King Abdullah 
-- not to concede to Israel's demand for assurances on final 
status issues. 
 
6.  (C)  Former MP Hamadeh Faraneh told Poloff that the 
timing of the announcement, just before King Abdullah's 
meeting in Washington with President Bush, was unfortunate, 
particularly because many now believe that the U.S. ignored 
Jordanian concerns about Sharon's request for U.S. assurances 
on the right of return and border demarcation.   Faraneh 
compared the King's dilemma with the embarrassment the King 
experienced when Israel killed Sheikh Yassin just days after 
the King met Sharon in Israel.  He predicted the King will be 
hard pressed to show a frustrated and angry public something 
positive from his meeting with President Bush.  This point 
was captured in Amman's morning papers which featured banner 
headlines critical of the President's "concessions" to PM 
Sharon, juxtaposed with the Palace's announcement of the 
King's impending arrival in Washington. 
 
7.  (C)  The perceived U.S. rejection of Arab views 
reinforces ordinary people's belief that the U.S. is intent 
on imposing its will on the region, according to Director of 
International Relations at Philadelphia University Dr. 
Ibrahim Badran.  The U.S. "go-it-alone" approach enhances 
popular perception that the U.S. has no interest in working 
with its regional supporters to ensure enduring solutions to 
the region's problems, according to Al-Quds Research Center 
Director and journalist Oreib al-Rintawi.  Dr. Badran, a 
long-time contact and former negotiator with Israel, told 
Poloff that friends of the U.S. in Jordan -- himself included 
-- find it increasingly difficult to defend U.S. policies in 
the region.  He said academics like himself were the last 
bastion of reason among a population that is frustrated and 
angry with U.S. heavy-handed tactics in Iraq and the 
perceived unwavering bias for Israel. 
 
--------------- 
FRIDAY PROTESTS 
--------------- 
 
8.  (C)  There is no sign of public protest in Jordan, but 
Friday prayers on April 16 are likely to provoke some 
expression of anger, especially among the Palestinian refugee 
population.  UNRWA officials expect protests Friday 
afternoon, but have found refugees to be depressed, rather 
than angry, about President Bush's statements about right of 
return and Israeli "population centers" in the West Bank. 
RSO contacts believe that if protests occur, they will not be 
as virulent as Jordan experienced after Sheikh Yassin's 
assassination. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9.  (C)  In Jordan, the good news of an Israeli withdrawal 
from Gaza and some West Bank settlements has been drowned out 
by disappointment at the nearly universal perception that the 
U.S. has changed its position on final status issues to the 
disadvantage of Arabs.  Attempts to explain the strategic 
opportunity of Sharon's disengagement plan and the nuances of 
the President's remarks, including on final status issues, 
tend to be dismissed as "sugar coating" a poison pill. 
 
Visit Embassy Amman's classified web site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman or access the site 
through the State Department's SIPRNET home page. 
HALE