US embassy cable - 01HARARE1102

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001102 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR - VDICKSON-HORTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/11 
TAGS: EAGR, PGOV, PHUM, EAID, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS AGREE AT CONGRESS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01102  01 OF 03  230533Z 
ON A STRATEGY TO RE-ENGAGE WITH THE GOZ ON LAND 
 
REFS: A. HARARE 898, B. HARARE 815, C. HARARE 743 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D' AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR 
REASONS 1.5 (B/D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) ON MARCH 22, ECONOFF MET WITH COLLIN CLOETE, VICE 
PRESIDENT FOR COMMODITIES OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS 
UNION (CFU), TO DISCUSS THE RESULTS OF THE CFU SPECIAL 
CONGRESS HELD THE PREVIOUS DAY.  THE ISSUE OF REPLACING 
THE CURRENT CFU LEADERSHIP (REFS A, B AND C) WAS NOT 
RAISED AT THE CONGRESS, BECAUSE THE MEMBERSHIP WAS 
UNITED BEHIND THE CURRENT LEADERSHIP.  NICK SWANEPOEL, A 
FORMER CFU PRESIDENT WHO HAD ENGAGED IN SECRET, 
UNSANCTIONED NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF 
ZIMBABWE (GOZ) ON THE LAND ISSUE (REF B), WAS GIVEN THE 
OPPORTUNITY TO ADDRESS THE CONGRESS, FOLLOWING WHICH IT 
WAS DETERMINED THAT HE WILL PROCEED WITH HIS EFFORTS TO 
NEGOTIATE WITH THE GOZ IN A MODIFIED FASHION WITH THE 
BACKING OF THE CFU.  THERE WAS A ONE AND A HALF HOUR 
PRESENTATION OF A NEW PLAN BY THE CFU LEADERSHIP TO RE- 
ENGAGE WITH THE GOZ ON THE ISSUES OF COMMERCIAL FARMING 
AND LAND REFORM AND RESETTLEMENT, WITH SHORT-, MEDIUM-, 
AND LONG-TERM COMPONENTS.  THE CFU HAS HELD REPEATED 
DISCUSSIONS WITH THE FINANCE MINISTER, SIMBA MAKONI, ON 
THE LAND ISSUE, AND THE MEMBERSHIP VIEWS HIM AS THE ONE 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01102  01 OF 03  230533Z 
PERSON IN THE GOZ WHO MIGHT BE ABLE TO BRIDGE THE SHARP 
DIVISION BETWEEN THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS AND THE GOZ. 
THE CFU IS PACKAGING THE PLAN UNVEILED AT THE CONGRESS 
FOR PRESENTATION TO THE GOZ, AND WILL MAKE IT CLEAR THAT 
THE FARMERS WANT TO ESTABLISH A CONSTRUCTIVE DIALOGUE ON 
THE LAND ISSUE AND HAVE SET NO PRECONDITIONS FOR SUCH 
TALKS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------- 
A MORE PERFECT UNION 
-------------------- 
 
2. (C) CLOETE REVEALED THAT THE CFU HELD A FULL COUNCIL 
MEETING THE NIGHT BEFORE THE CONGRESS THAT WAS ATTENDED 
BY SWANEPOEL.  SWANEPOEL AND THE COUNCIL MUTUALLY AGREED 
THAT EVIDENCE OF SCHISMS WITHIN THE CFU AT THE CONGRESS 
WOULD ONLY HURT COMMERCIAL FARMERS.  IT WAS AGREED THAT 
SWANEPOEL WOULD BE GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY AT THE CONGRESS 
TO PRESENT AND EXPLAIN HIS UNSANCTIONED AND SECRETIVE 
EFFORT TO NEGOTIATE AN END TO THE IMPASSE OVER LAND WITH 
THE GOZ.  IT WAS ALSO AGREED THAT HE WOULD NOT RAISE THE 
ISSUE OF REPLACING THE CURRENT CFU LEADERSHIP.  CLOETE 
STATED THAT SWANEPOEL HAD NO CHOICE ON THE LATTER ISSUE 
FOR TWO REASONS: THE ASSOCIATION OF JOHN BREDENKAMP (A 
REPUTED ARMS DEALER WITH CLOSE TIES TO ZANU-PF) WITH HIS 
SECRET TALKS HAD CAUSED MANY FARMERS TO QUESTION THE 
 
SIPDIS 
REAL MOTIVES BEHIND SWANEPOEL'S EFFORT, AND, THE RESULTS 
OF THE CFU LEADERSHIP'S CANVASSING OF OVER 1000 FARMERS 
IN THE WEEKS BEFORE THE CONGRESS, WHICH REVEALED NEAR 
UNANIMOUS SUPPORT FOR THE INCUMBENT LEADERSHIP. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01102  01 OF 03  230533Z 
3. (C) THE CONGRESS THE FOLLOWING DAY WENT VERY 
SMOOTHLY.  THE CFU PRESIDENT, TIM HENWOOD, OPENED WITH A 
15 MINUTE SPEECH, FOLLOWED BY SWANEPOEL WITH A 20 MINUTE 
EXPOSITION ON HIS TALKS, FOLLOWED BY A ONE-AND-A-HALF 
HOUR PRESENTATION OF THE CFU PLAN TO RE-ENGAGE THE GOZ 
ON THE LAND ISSUE, WHICH WAS GIVEN BY CFU VICE PRESIDENT 
FOR REGIONS, WILLIAM HUGHES.  AFTER THE PRESENTATION, 
THERE WAS AN OPEN PERIOD OF Q & A'S WITH THE LEADERSHIP 
OVER THE PLAN, WITH A FEW QUESTIONS DIRECTED TO 
SWANEPOEL REGARDING HIS DEALINGS WITH THE GOZ.  AT THE 
END OF THE DAY-LONG CONGRESS THERE WAS A UNANIMOUS 
CONSENSUS BY THE DELEGATES FOR THE LEADERSHIP TO MOVE 
FORWARD WITH THE PROPOSED PLAN. 
 
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THE PLAN 
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4. (C) THE PLAN PRESENTED BY THE CFU LEADERSHIP IS A 
MULTIFACETED APPROACH TO ENGAGING THE GOZ ON THE 
QUESTIONS OF THE FUTURE OF COMMERCIAL FARMING, LAND 
REFORM AND RESETTLEMENT.  THE PLAN IS DIVIDED INTO 
SHORT-, MEDIUM, AND LONG-TERM COMPONENTS DEALING WITH 
ALL ASPECTS OF COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE AND LAND REFORM 
AND RESETTLEMENT.  IN A BROAD STROKE, THE KEY ELEMENTS 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5119 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  01102  02 OF 03  230534Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00 
      COME-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00 
      EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00 
      INR-00   IO-00    LAB-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00 
      OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  BBG-00   PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /009W 
                  ------------------D60F6B  230534Z /38 
P 230531Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8490 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 001102 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR - VDICKSON-HORTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/11 
TAGS: EAGR, PGOV, PHUM, EAID, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS AGREE AT CONGRESS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01102  02 OF 03  230534Z 
ON A STRATEGY TO RE-ENGAGE WITH THE GOZ ON LAND 
 
OF THE PLAN ARE COMMITMENTS BY THE CFU AND COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS TO: WORK WITH THE GOZ TO SEE THAT LAND REFORM 
AND RESETTLEMENT IS A SUCCESS IN ZIMBABWE; INTEGRATE THE 
CFU FULLY INTO THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL FABRIC OF THE 
NATION; ASSIST SMALL-SCALE AND COMMUNAL FARMERS TO 
BECOME MORE PRODUCTIVE AND ECONOMICALLY VIABLE; AND 
DEVELOP FINANCIAL MECHANISMS WITH BANKS, IFIS, AND DONOR 
COUNTRIES TO FUND LAND REFORM, RESETTLEMENT, AND 
COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE.  AS PART OF THE EFFORT TO 
INTEGRATE MORE FULLY INTO PRESENT-DAY ZIMBABWE, THE CFU 
WILL VIGOROUSLY PURSUE EFFORTS TO BROADEN ITS MEMBERSHIP 
TO INCLUDE THE MEMBERS OF THE INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL 
FARMERS UNION AND SMALL-HOLDER FARMERS ENGAGED IN 
COMMERCIAL FARMING, AND TO DEVELOP A NEW CFU 
CONSTITUTION AND SYMBOLS THAT WILL BE PROPOSED FOR 
ADOPTION AT THE AUGUST CONGRESS.  CLOETE STATED THAT THE 
CFU IS NOW PREPARING THIS PLAN FOR FORMAL PRESENTATION 
TO THE GOZ.  THE PLAN DOES NOT INCLUDE SPECIFIC FIGURES 
LISTED AS GOALS, BECAUSE ZANU-PF CONTACTS TOLD THE CFU 
LEADERSHIP THAT IT WAS BETTER TO LEAVE THIS OPEN FOR 
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE GOZ.  CLOETE SAID THAT THERE WAS 
NOT A SPECIFIC DATE FOR PRESENTING THE PLAN TO THE GOZ. 
IT WILL BE PRESENTED AS SOON AS THE UNION HAS IT 
PROPERLY PACKAGED FOR PRESENTATION. 
 
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A ROLE FOR SWANEPOEL 
-------------------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 03        HARARE  01102  02 OF 03  230534Z 
5. (C) THE CONGRESS ALSO AGREED THAT THERE WAS SOME 
MERIT IN THE SECRET EFFORT THAT SWANEPOEL HAD BEGUN, AND 
AUTHORIZED HIM TO SPEAK FOR THE UNION AND ITS MEMBERSHIP 
IN HIS ROLE AS THE CO-CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC 
CONSULTATIVE FORUM (NECF) TASK FORCE ON LAND.  ACCORDING 
TO CLOETE, WHILE THIS IS A POSITION SWANEPOEL HAS FILLED 
FOR THE LAST YEAR, HE HAD ILLEGALLY USURPED IT FROM A 
CFU-BACKED DELEGATE.  WHILE THE NECF TASK FORCE HAS BEEN 
LARGELY INACTIVE SINCE THE FARM INVASIONS BEGAN LAST 
YEAR, THE CFU LEADERSHIP IS HOPING THAT IT MAY BECOME 
THE FORUM FOR REENGAGING THE GOZ WITH THE NEW PLAN. 
 
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MAKONI SEEN AS A KEY PLAYER 
--------------------------- 
 
6. (C) ACCORDING TO CLOETE, THE CFU HAS BEEN QUIETLY 
CULTIVATING CONTACTS WITH THE FINANCE MINISTER, SIMBA 
MAKONI.  THEY VIEW HIM AS A KEY GOZ OFFICIAL WHO, 
BECAUSE OF HIS ROLE IN TRYING TO STABILIZE THE ZIMBABWE 
ECONOMY, MAY HAVE SUFFICIENT INFLUENCE WITH PRESIDENT 
MUGABE AND HIS CIRCLE OF ADVISORS TO HELP GET BOTH SIDES 
SERIOUSLY TALKING AGAIN.  THE CFU LEADERSHIP BELIEVES 
THAT MAKONI UNDERSTANDS THE IMPORTANT ROLE THAT 
COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE PLAYS IN THE ECONOMY, AND THAT IT 
IS ONE SECTOR THAT CAN BE QUICKLY STIMULATED TO GENERATE 
ECONOMIC GROWTH, FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS, AND 
EMPLOYMENT, AS WELL AS FEED THE NATION.  FOR THIS REASON 
THE CFU PLAN TO USE MAKONI AS A CONDUIT TO PRESENT THEIR 
NEW PLAN TO MUGABE. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 04        HARARE  01102  02 OF 03  230534Z 
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WILL THE GOZ RESPOND? 
--------------------- 
 
7. (C) CLOETE SAID THAT ONCE THE CFU PLAN IS PRESENTED 
TO THE GOZ, THE BALL IS IN THE LATTER'S COURT.  HOWEVER, 
TO ENCOURAGE A POSITIVE RESPONSE THE CONGRESS AGREED 
THAT THE CFU MUST MAKE CLEAR TO PRESIDENT MUGABE THAT IT 
WANTS TO BE A HELPFUL PARTNER IN RESOLVING THE IMPASSE 
OVER LAND, THAT IT IS SETTING NO PRECONDITIONS TO TALK, 
AND THAT THE UNION WILL PURSUE NO ADDITIONAL LEGAL 
ACTIONS AGAINST THE GOZ.  THE CFU IS GOING TO USE ALL 
AVENUES TO GET THEIR MESSAGE ACROSS TO MUGABE AND THE 
GOZ, INCLUDING INVOLVING THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH AFRICA. 
THE CFU WILL TRY TO DO THIS OUT OF THE PUBLIC EYE, 
HOPING THAT THEY CAN CONVINCE MUGABE THAT HE CAN ENGAGE 
WITH THE UNION AND COMMERCIAL FARMERS IN A WIN-WIN 
SITUATION THAT WILL ALLOW HIM TO TAKE CREDIT FOR SOLVING 
THE LAND ISSUE.  CLOETE STATED THAT THE CFU RECOGNIZES 
THAT THIS LAST POINT IS A CRITICAL ELEMENT OF THEIR 
PLAN, BECAUSE IF MUGABE AND ZANU-PF CANNOT SUCCESSFULLY 
USE THE LAND ISSUE TO TRY AND REGAIN POPULAR SUPPORT, 
THE NEW PLAN WILL BE STILLBORN. 
 
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                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ5120 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  01102  03 OF 03  230534Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AGRE-00  AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00 
      COME-00  DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00 
      EUR-00   FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    FRB-00   H-01     TEDE-00 
      INR-00   IO-00    LAB-00   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00 
      OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00 
      P-00     SP-00    STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  BBG-00   PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /009W 
                  ------------------D60F6F  230534Z /38 
P 230531Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8491 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 001102 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR BWILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SD - DWELLER, AFR/SA - CPALMA, 
NNEWMAN, AA/AFR - VDICKSON-HORTON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/11 
TAGS: EAGR, PGOV, PHUM, EAID, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE'S COMMERCIAL FARMERS AGREE AT CONGRESS 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  01102  03 OF 03  230534Z 
ON A STRATEGY TO RE-ENGAGE WITH THE GOZ ON LAND 
 
COMMENT 
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8. (C) IN OUR OPINION, THE ACTION PLAN AGREED TO AT THE 
SPECIAL CONGRESS IS A COMPREHENSIVE AND WELL-THOUGHT OUT 
STRATEGY FOR ADDRESSING THE NEED FOR LAND REFORM AND 
RESETTLEMENT IN ZIMBABWE, WHILE MAINTAINING THE 
VIABILITY OF COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE.  WHETHER THE CFU 
LEADERSHIP WILL BE ABLE TO GET PRESIDENT MUGABE TO 
SERIOUSLY CONSIDER THE PLAN, AND THEN TO WORK WITH THE 
FARMERS IN FINDING A WAY FORWARD WILL DEPEND ON THE 
EXTENT TO WHICH MUGABE CAN CLAIM PERSONAL AND ZANU-PF 
CREDIT FOR GIVING LAND TO THE BLACK MAJORITY AS A 
RESULT.  THE ROLE THAT MAKONI MAY PLAY IN PROMOTING THIS 
PLAN TO MUGABE WILL BE CRITICAL.  HE HAS A LIMITED 
WINDOW IN WHICH TO DO SO BECAUSE WE FIGURE THAT AFTER 
JUNE THE MAJORITY PARTY WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TO THE EXCLUSION OF ALMOST ALL 
OTHER ISSUES.  THE SEVERE ECONOMIC CRISIS FACING 
ZIMBABWE GIVES MAKONI SOME LEVERAGE IN THIS EFFORT, BUT 
IT MAY NOT SUFFICE TO OVERCOME THOSE IN ZANU-PF, 
INCLUDING MUGABE HIMSELF, WHO SEE THE CURRENT "FAST- 
TRACK" LAND PROGRAM AS THE ONLY WAY TO INCREASE THE 
PARTY'S, AND ITS CANDIDATE'S, POPULARITY PRIOR TO THE 
UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  END COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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