US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN893

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000893 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN; DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, AM 
SUBJECT:  PARLIAMENTARIANS, MANY OTHER DETAINEES 
RELEASED; DEMIRCHIAN PROMISES NEW RALLY 
 
 
1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) Armenian opposition leaders Stepan Demirchian 
and Artashes Geghamian brushed off calls for dialogue 
with the government, instead calling for a new rally 
against President Kocharian in central Yerevan April 
16.  The police unsealed the offices of the National 
Accord Party April 14, and reopened the Republic Party 
offices April 15.  The police report that 115 people 
were either detained or taken in for questioning since 
April 13.  The police released all four national 
assembly members who had been held as witnesses, and 
many others who had been taken into custody April 12- 
13.  President Kocharian issued an appeal to the 
opposition to resume "normal activities," but promised 
further police action against "political extremism." 
End Summary. 
 
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OPPOSITION DEFIES GOVERNMENT; PLANS NEW RALLY 
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3. (SBU) Despite the authorities' crackdown on their 
activities during the previous 48 hours, opposition 
leaders Stepan Demirchian and Artashes Geghamian 
pledged April 14 to continue their anti-government 
campaign.  Defying a government ban on further 
unsanctioned rallies and rejecting calls to engage in a 
dialogue with the government, Demirchian and Geghamian 
announced that another demonstration against the 
government would be held April 16 in Yerevan's Opera 
Square.  Demirchian confirmed his plans in a press 
conference April 15.  (Comment:  One senior government 
official told us they didn't care what the opposition 
did at Opera Square, so long as they stayed there.  End 
Comment.) 
 
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POLICE LEAVE PARTY OFFICES 
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4. (SBU) The police unsealed the offices of Artashes 
Geghamian's National Accord Party the afternoon of 
April 14.  The offices had been raided by the police 
immediately following the dispersal of the opposition 
demonstration in front of the National Assembly during 
the morning of April 13.  Geghamian claimed that police 
had confiscated most party documents, and thoroughly 
ransacked the headquarters.  Police also vacated the 
offices of the Republic Party at approximately 1:00 
p.m. April 15.  Republic Party leader Aram Sargsyan has 
not made a public appearance since the authorities 
broke up the opposition rally April 13, and his 
supporters claim he is in hiding.  The Procurator- 
General had singled out the Republic Party's leadership 
as most likely to face criminal prosecution for their 
calls for the violent overthrow of the state. 
 
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PARLIAMENTARIANS RELEASED, DETENTION FIGURES UNCLEAR 
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5. (SBU) The police released the four opposition 
deputies detained for questioning April 12-13.  Ruzanna 
Khachatryan, spokeswoman for Demirchian's Armenian 
People's Party, also left police custody April 14.  She 
told us that the police treated her well during her 48 
hours of detention (septel).  The Yerevan City Police 
reported that 115 people were detained during the same 
period, of whom 71 were no longer in police custody. 
Although opposition parties told us that they think the 
number of detentions was significantly higher, Human 
Rights Ombudsman Larissa Alaverdian, who has visited 
detention facilities, told us that she believes the 
police numbers are generally accurate. 
 
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GOAM OFFICIALS DEFEND POLICE ACTIONS DURING RALLY 
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6. (SBU) Senior GOAM maintain that the force employed 
during the rally was at a commensurate and acceptable 
level.  In a televised interview, Procurator-General 
Aghvan Hovsepyan said that "If the police, having acted 
in full accord with the letter and spirit of the law, 
had not prevented the further development of illegal 
actions of demonstrators on the night of 12-13 April, 
we would have to apply more severe official enforcement 
measures against the violators."  President Kocharian 
also defended the actions of the police against 
"political extremists," and called on the opposition to 
participate in a political dialogue.  He stated that 
police would not have interfered with the demonstrators 
if they had remained in Opera Square, but the 
opposition had chosen to provoke the authorities by 
rallying in front of the parliament.   Foreign Minister 
Vartan Oskanian told the Ambassador April 14 that he 
and several other prominent ministers were in agreement 
that the opposition must be engaged to prevent a 
further worsening of the situation.  The Dashnakutyun 
Party, a member of the governing coalition, issued a 
statement calling for incorporating the opposition in 
governing bodies in order to defuse current tensions. 
(Note:  The Dashnakutyun have suggested a place on the 
National Security Council for the opposition.  End 
Note.) 
 
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COMMENT:  SITUATION STILL TENSE 
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7. (SBU) The situation between the GOAM and the 
opposition remains tense.  Government authorities seem 
willing to open discussions with the opposition, but 
the opposition seems unlikely to heed Kocharian's plea 
for them to resume "normal activities."  For their 
part, leading opposition figures are in no mood for any 
dialogue with the government--at least for now.  They 
likely hope that their April 16 rally will demonstrate 
growing support for their position.  Our best guess is 
that while most citizens disapprove of the government's 
tactics, this does not translate into active support 
for the opposition.  A weather forecast that calls for 
rain makes a large turnout even less likely.  We cannot 
rule out completely, however, either provocation by the 
opposition, or overkill by the government. 
ORDWAY