US embassy cable - 01BEIRUT758

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000758 
 
LONDON FOR SUTPHIN, PARIS FOR O'FRIEL 
 
E.O. 12958:DECL:03/22/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KISL, IR, LE 
SUBJECT:  HIZBALLAH-AMAL FORGE MUNICIPAL ELECTION 
ALLIANCE - COURTESY OF SYRIA 
 
REF: A) BEIRUT 136, B) 00 BEIRUT 4295 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE DAVID HALE.  REASON 1.5 B&D. 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER/AMAL MOVEMENT 
HEAD NABIH BERRI, CORNERED BY SYRIAN SUPPORT FOR 
HARIRI'S STRUCTURAL REFORMS WHICH WILL HARM HIS 
PATRONAGE MACHINE, IS TRIMMING SAILS.  HE HAS MET WITH 
ARCH-RIVAL HIZBALLAH SYG NASRALLAH AND COMPROMISES ON 
TWO BONES OF CONTENTION ARE EMERGING.  FIRST, THEY 
HAVE CUT A DEAL IN WHICH A PRO-AMAL FIGURE BECOMES THE 
HEAD OF THE HIGHER ISLAMIC SHI'A COUNCIL (SPIRITUAL 
LEADER OF THE COMMUNITY AND CONTROLLER OF CLERICAL 
APPOINTMENTS AND FUNDS) WHILE A PRO-HIZBALLAHI GAINS 
THE DEPUTY SLOT.  SECOND, THEY HAVE WORKED OUT 
DIFFERENCES BLOCKING MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN THE FORMER 
ISRAELI SECURITY ZONE, AND WILL FORGE A MADE-IN-SYRIA 
ALLIANCE WHICH WILL BLOCK OUT ANY THIRD FORCES, SUCH 
AS FORMER SPEAKER KAMAL AL-ASAD.  THESE COMPROMISES IN 
PART REFLECT BERRI'S SENSE OF POLITICAL VULNERABILITY, 
BUT ALSO A SIGN THAT HIZBALLAH IS COMING BACK DOWN TO 
EARTH AFTER THE HEADY POST-LIBERATION DAYS. 
NASRALLAH'S ASSOCIATION WITH THE PALESTINIAN INTIFADA 
-- WHILE IT HAS PUT HIM ON THE MAP REGIONALLY -- HAS 
GAINED THE PARTY LITTLE IN THE DEEPLY ANTI-PALESTINIAN 
SHI'A COMMUNITY.  THE RESULT IS A TEMPORARY, TACTICAL 
ALLIANCE WHICH WILL NOT CHANGE THE LANDSCAPE IN THE 
SOUTH, BUT MAY REDUCE INTERNAL SHI'A TENSIONS FOR THE 
MOMENT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) PARLIAMENTARY SPEAKER/AMAL MOVEMENT HEAD NABIH 
BERRI HAS BEEN ON THE POLITICAL DEFENSIVE.  MOST 
RECENTLY, HE HAS BEEN COMPELLED TO ACCEPT POTENTIALLY 
SWEEPING STRUCTURAL REFORMS ADVOCATED BY PM HARIRI 
WHICH WILL UNDERCUT A MAJOR SOURCE OF HIS POWER, 
PATRONAGE.  THE GOVERNMENT JOBS OF THOUSANDS OF HIS 
FOLLOWERS ARE ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK -- ALBEIT 
INCUMBENTS WILL GET GOLDEN HANDSHAKES -- AS THE PRICE 
HARIRI HAS SAID MUST BE PAID TO RESTORE CONFIDENCE IN 
LEBANON'S ECONOMY AND FINANCES.  BERRI'S CLIMBDOWN IS 
GENERALLY ATTRIBUTED TO PRESSURE FROM DAMASCUS, WHOSE 
LOCAL OPERATIVES HAVE BEEN VISIBLE SUPPORTERS OF 
HARIRI'S REFORM AGENDA. 
 
3. (C) AN UNUSUAL MEETING BETWEEN BERRI AND HIZBALLAH 
SECGEN NASRALLAH MAY REFLECT BERRI'S RESPONSE TO HIS 
REDUCED CIRCUMSTANCES.  IT IS SAID THAT TWO 
COMPROMISES EMERGED ON ISSUES DIVIDING AMAL AND 
HIZBALLAH AND THE SHI'A COMMUNITY:  THE SUCCESSION TO 
IMAM MUHAMMAD MAHDI SHAMS AD-DIN, WHO DIED IN JANUARY, 
AND ORGANIZATION OF MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN THE FORMER 
ISRAELI SECURITY ZONE. 
 
4. (C) SHAMS AD-DIN'S POSITION AS SHI'A SPIRITUAL 
LEADER AND HEAD OF THE HIGHER ISLAMIC SHI'A COUNCIL 
(HISC) HAS BEEN FILLED BY HIS DEPUTY, AS ACTING 
CHAIRMAN, ABDEL AMIR QABALAN.  QABALAN IS A PRO-AMAL 
CLERIC WITH LITTLE NATIONAL FOLLOWING OR RESPECT 
(REFTEL).  ACCORDING TO A TOP HISC ADVISOR, BERRI AND 
NASRALLAH AGREED THAT QABALAN SHOULD BE ELECTED 
CHAIRMAN, AND A NEW, PRO-HIZBALLAH DEPUTY APPOINTED TO 
FILL QABALAN'S POSITION -- AND BE POSITIONED TO BECOME 
CHAIRMAN WHENEVER QABALAN PASSES FROM THE SCENE. 
HIZBALLAH'S CANDIDATE IS SHEIKH MOHAMED YAZBEK, THE 
LOCAL "PERSONAL" REPRESENTATIVE OF AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI 
(ALTHOUGH IRANIAN FM KHARRAZI WAS SAID DURING HIS 
VISIT LAST WEEK TO HAVE SAID TEHRAN FAVORED ANY 
CANDIDATE WHO GAINED CONSENSUS SUPPORT FROM AMAL AND 
HIZBALLAH.  AMAL IS STILL PUBLICLY SUPPORTING A RIVAL 
CANDIDATE, BAALBAK MUFTI KHALIL SHUQAIR, BUT A KEY 
CONTACT SAID THE DEAL HAS BEEN CUT FAVORING YAZBEK. 
THESE APPOINTMENTS MATTER BECAUSE OF HISC'S CONTROL 
OVER ALL SHI'A CLERICAL APPOINTMENTS AS WELL THE 
RELIGIOUS ENDOWMENTS, ISLAMIC UNIVERSITY, AND AZ-ZAHRA 
HOSPITAL.  IN THE PAST, HIZBALLAH OFFICIALS WERE 
DISMISSIVE THE OF THE COUNCIL, AND RELIED ON THEIR OWN 
ASSETS TO PROMOTE SUPPORT.  HOWEVER, LOOKING TO THE 
DAY OF REDUCED IRANIAN SUPPORT, HIZBALLAH FIGURES MAY 
NOW FIND ACCESS TO HISC PATRONAGE AND MONEY MORE 
ATTRACTIVE. 
 
5. (C) THE SECOND COMPROMISE INVOLVED AGREEMENT ON 
PROCEEDING WITH MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN THE FORMER 
SECURITY ZONE, WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST SINCE 1963. 
THEIR CONSENSUS, BASED ON A MADE-IN-SYRIA ELECTORAL 
ALLIANCE BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES, CLEARS THE WAY FOR 
SEPTEMBER POLLS.  THE TWO PARTIES' DIVISION OF THE 
SPOILS WITH AGREED LISTS OF PRE-CHOSEN CANDIDATES WILL 
ENSURE A MINIMUM OF SURPRISES, AS WELL AS MINIMAL 
LOCAL CONFLICT BETWEEN ARMED SUPPORTERS.  KEY WILL BE 
TO SHUT OUT THIRD FORCE COMPETITORS, SUCH AS FORMER 
SPEAKER KAMAL AL-ASAD, WHO IS ANATHEMA IN DAMASCUS BUT 
RETAINS A CONSIDERABLE CORE OF SUPPORT IN THE FORMER 
ZONE. 
 
6. (C) KHIAM MP/AMAL MEMBER ALI HASSAN KHALIL 
CHARACTERIZED TO US THE UPCOMING MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 
AS CRUCIAL FOR THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF THE REGION 
AFTER ALMOST A QUARTER-CENTURY OF ARTIFICIAL, 
EXTERNALLY-IMPOSED POLITICS.  THE MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 
WOULD PREVIEW ANY NEW POLITICAL BLOOD THAT MAY COME TO 
THE FOREFRONT.  HOPING TO NIP THAT INDEPENDENT STRAIN 
IN THE BUD, DAMASCUS HAS ENCOURAGED BOTH SHIA PARTIES 
TO "COORDINATE" THEIR ELECTION STRATEGIES AND 
CANDIDATE LISTS.  TO DATE, KHALIL HAS HELD SOME SIX 
MEETINGS WITH HIZBALLAH POLITICAL ADVISOR, HUSSEIN 
KHALIL.  WHILE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONSENSUS ON ANY 
ISSUE, DAMASCUS WILL ENSURE THAT A UNIFIED POSITION 
WILL ARISE COME ELECTION DAY. 
 
7. (C) DESPITE THE FIERCE RIVALRY BETWEEN THE TWO 
PARTIES, BOTH AMAL NOR HIZBALLAH GAIN IN THIS 
COALITION.  AMAL IS A HOLLOWED OUT PARTY, STRIPPED OF 
ITS CIVIL WAR ERA LEGITIMACY BY POST-WAR CORRUPTION. 
WHILE ITS LONG POLITICAL EXPERIENCE AND SECULAR 
APPROACH REMAIN ATTRACTIVE DRAWS TO THE SHIA 
COMMUNITY, PATRONAGE HAS BEEN KEY TO BERRI'S SUCCESS - 
- AND HARIRI'S REFORMS ARE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY 
DILUTING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT WEAPON FOR HIM. 
HIZBALLAH, ON THE DOWNSWING FROM THE HEADY DAYS OF THE 
ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL, IS SAID TO HAVE ENCOUNTERED SOME 
CRITICISM FROM SOUTHERNERS, WHO DISAGREE WITH THE 
PARTY'S ADVOCACY OF THE PALESTINIAN INTIFADA, 
UNWILLING TO GET DRAWN BACK INTO VIOLENCE WITH ISRAEL 
ON BEHALF OF UNPOPULAR PALESTINIANS.  VOICES ARE ALSO 
HEARD SAYING THAT HIZBALLAH HAS FAILED TO FILL THE 
SERVICE VACUUM LEFT BY THE STATE, AND HAVE SHOWN TO BE 
NO BETTER THAN OTHER LEBANESE POLITICAL FORCES WHICH 
FAIL TO DELIVER. 
 
HALE