US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV2199

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002199 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, GOI INTERNAL, GOI EXTERNAL, U.S.-ISRAEL RELATIONS 
SUBJECT: REACTION TO BUSH-SHARON MEETING: SHARON GOT WHAT 
HE NEEDS 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Richard LeBaron for reason 1.4 (b) and 
 (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Key Likud disengagement supporters and the 
major media are declaring PM Sharon victorious after learning 
of the assurances Sharon received in his April 14 meeting 
with President Bush.  They also assess that Sharon obtained 
what he needs from the U.S. to push his disengagement plan 
through a fractious Likud Party referendum on the unilateral 
withdrawal plan slated for May.  While the small group of 
hardest-core disengagement opponents from across Likud and 
the two rightist coalition partners dismiss the USG 
assurances as inadequate and nothing new, key Likud fence 
straddlers on disengagement appear to be moving in favor of 
the plan.  FinMin Netanyahu, while not yet definitively 
expressing support for the plan, reportedly stated he is 
satisfied with President Bush's assurances, including on the 
Palestinian refugee issue.  Labor Party Chairman Shimon Peres 
is embracing President Bush's position, declaring that it 
"conforms to the Labor Party's positions," clearly signaling 
Labor's readiness to join a Likud-led coalition.  End summary. 
 
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Key Players Satisfied 
----------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Key Likud supporters of PM Sharon and his 
controversial unilateral disengagement plan are thrilled with 
the assurances Sharon received from President Bush April 14 
in exchange for moving forward with his unilateral withdrawal 
plan.  Defense Minister Mofaz announced on April 14 that 
"Today marks an important milestone toward creating a new and 
improved political and security reality for Israel.  One 
should welcome these significant and unprecedented 
understandings that were reached... which... anchor extremely 
vital Israeli political and security interests."  (Note: PM 
Sharon's son and Likud MK, Omri Sharon, told poloff on April 
14, prior to the Washington press conference, that the 
Defense Minister would play a leading role in the 
pro-disengagement referendum campaign to lend credibility to 
Sharon's assurances that the plan would boost Israel's 
security.)  Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared that 
President Bush's letter constitutes a historic achievement. 
 
3.  (C) Several Likud ministers who had been straddling the 
fence on the withdrawal plan indicated after the release of 
the White House assurances that they can now support it.  In 
an Israel radio report on April 15, Netanyahu reportedly 
expressed satisfaction with President Bush's assurances, even 
though they do not explicitly address one of Netanyahu's 
conditions for supporting the plan: that there be no 
withdrawal from Gaza until the separation fence -- in a route 
that includes the Ariel settlement bloc -- is completed. 
Netanyahu has not yet, however, come out squarely in support 
of Sharon's plan.  Immigrant Absorption Minister Tzipi Livni, 
one of the undecided Likud ministers, reportedly announced 
that with the U.S. assurances particularly regarding views on 
right of return, she would support the disengagement plan. 
Education Minister Limor Livnat, still holding out, said she 
would reserve judgment on the U.S. assurances and the plan 
until she sees "exactly what was said."  PM Sharon called key 
Likud leaders from Washington.  He reportedly announced that 
he will meet with Likud ministers about the plan on April 16, 
when he returns from the U.S. 
 
4.  (C) Labor Party Chairman Shimon Peres openly embraced 
President Bush's April 14 statements and the U.S. assurances, 
reportedly stating that "President Bush's speech almost 
completely conforms to the Labor Party's positions calling 
for the establishment of a Palestinian state based on the 
1967 borders with minor border adjustments which take into 
consideration the Jewish settlements in the territories and 
Israel's security needs."  He added that President Bush's 
statement on the Palestinian right of return also conforms 
with Labor's position.  Peres' statements set the stage for 
Labor joining a Likud government if and when the rightist 
parties bolt.  Justice Minister Tommy Lapid, leader of the 
coalition partner Shinui Party, praised President Bush's 
assurances, stating that they "bolster Israel's standing in 
exchange for Sharon's disengagement plan." 
 
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Disengagement Opponents Discount U.S. Assurances 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
5.  (SBU) Not surprising were the responses by ideological 
opponents of unilateral withdrawal both from those on the 
right opposed to withdrawing from settlements, and those on 
the left opposed to moving forward without negotiating with 
the Palestinians.  Housing Minister Eifi Eitam of the 
rightist coalition partner National Religious Party, 
dismissed President Bush's and PM Sharon's statements as 
"word games" that "do not provide a response to the security 
threats and the unbearably high economic price of the plan." 
Another leader in the anti-disengagement plan campaign, Likud 
Minister-without-Portfolio Uzi Landau, referred to President 
Bush's statements as "sadly inadequate... which contain 
nothing new."  He called on Likud ministers to help foil the 
plan.  MK Yuri Stern of the rightist National Union coalition 
party, assessed that PM Sharon "failed to attain any 
strategic achievement even from a friendly President like 
Bush."   Yossi Sarid of the leftist Meretz party said that he 
"fail(s) to see anything new in the U.S. stand," although new 
left-wing Yahad party leader Yossi Beilin reportedly stated 
that "Bush's statements constitute a basis for an 
Israeli-Palestinian agreement." 
 
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Media Declares Victory for Sharon 
--------------------------------- 
 
6.  (U) Israeli media commentary universally portrayed 
Wednesday's events as a major victory for Sharon.  The 
leading pundits underlined the historic importance of what 
they defined as unprecedented U.S. statements rejecting the 
"right of return" of Palestinian refugees to Israel.  Many 
also saw in the President's remarks the first statement by a 
U.S. leader legitimizing the settlements, although Ze'ev 
Schiff of Ha'aretz and Ben Caspit of Ma'ariv cautioned that 
the President's language on territorial issues, such as 
recognizing demographic realities on the ground, could apply 
as much to the reality of expanding Palestinian areas of 
Jerusalem as to the settlements. 
 
7.  (SBU) Going beyond the substantive issues, commentators 
stressed the political side of Wednesday's meeting.  "No one 
can allow himself the luxury of not meddling in the other's 
elections," Yedioth's Nahum Barnea noted.  Sharon was seen as 
receiving a big boost toward winning approval of the 
disengagement initiative in the coming Likud referendum, not 
only from the President, but also from the strident 
Palestinian and Arab reaction to the President's statements. 
Commentators saw Sharon reciprocating with his statement 
praising the President's steadfastness against terror, and 
with his refusal to meet with Sen. Kerry. 
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Comment 
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8.  (C) Judging from the positive statements by key coalition 
and Likud players, such as Netanyahu, and major media 
analysts, U.S. assurances provided PM Sharon a surfeit of 
ammunition to convince Likud voters to support his 
disengagement plan in next month's referendum.  As the major 
daily Yedioth Ahronoth put it, "Bush gave Sharon words, only 
words, but what words." 
 
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