US embassy cable - 04ANKARA2153

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002153 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, TU 
SUBJECT: CHP'S KEMAL DERVIS: THIS PLOUGH CAN'T SCOUR 
 
 
REF: A. 02 ANKARA 7606 
     B. 03 ANKARA 2048 
     C. 03 ANKARA 5001 
 
 
(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter. 
Reason: 1.4 (b,d). 
 
 
1. (C) Summary:  CHP deputy Kemal Dervis April 13 resigned as 
party Vice Chairman and from his position on CHP's executive 
board.  Our contacts say Dervis will not challenge current 
CHP chairman Baykal and will instead engage in a "war of 
ideas" versus the party's statist hardliners.  The ability of 
Dervis to effect meaningful change will be circumscribed by 
the widespread perception in Anatolia that he is another in a 
long line of elites out of touch with the needs of ordinary 
citizens.  End Summary. 
 
 
2. (C) CHP Istanbul deputy and former State Minister Kemal 
Dervis resigned April 13 from his positions as party Vice 
Chairman, as a member of the party's executive board, and as 
head of the CHP research arm called Science Platform.  Citing 
philosphical differences with CHP leadership, Dervis said 
"there is no benefit to my continuing to perform my duties in 
light of the local election results."  In his written 
statement, Dervis said he will gather like-minded 
intellectuals and try to promote social democracy in CHP and 
Turkey in general.  He will remain both a CHP member and a 
member of the party assembly.  Speaking to the press 
following his resignation announcement, Dervis re-affirmed 
that he has no intentions of running for party chairman, 
chiding journalists, "why can't I convince any of you?" 
 
 
--------------------------- 
Not Ready for the Big Dance 
--------------------------- 
 
 
3. (C) In reiterating his intent not to challenge party 
chairman Deniz Baykal, Dervis has once again shown little 
desire to assume the kind of leadership role a small number 
CHP deputies hoped he would.  Long-time Dervis supporter and 
CHP Edirne M.P. Necdet Budak conceded to us April 13 that now 
it is difficult to say Dervis has a "team" in the party, 
because that would imply that Dervis is a leader.  "Dervis 
doesn't even want to be a leader," a clearly disappointed 
Budak said.  Budak asserted that Dervis does not have the 
personality needed to succeed in the rough world of Turkish 
politics.  With Baykal at the helm and Dervis removing 
himself from the picture, Budak -- a former professor at Ege 
University in Izmir -- does not see CHP clearing the 
threshold in the next national election.  "I am already 
looking at how I can get back into academia." 
 
 
4. (C) Close Dervis confidant and CHP Istanbul M.P. Memduh 
Hacigolu largely ehoed Budak's sentiment in an April 14 
meeting, saying Dervis has no great political ambitions. 
Although he would not entirely rule out an eventual push to 
become party chairman, Hacioglu said Dervis genuinely values 
his private life too much to devote 100 percent of his time 
to national politics (Dervis himself has told us much the 
same thing).  As a result, Hacioglu explained, Dervis does 
not think engaging in a highly publicized battle for CHP's 
soul is worth it.  Neither Hacioglu nor Budak see another 
Dervis-ite emerging to challenge the current party 
leadership. 
 
 
5. (C) Dervis' apparent distaste for politics will relegate 
him to the role of mentor to his like-minded CHP colleagues, 
who number no more than 15-20 M.P.s.  Hacioglu asserted that 
the group will engage the more hard-line, statist CHPers in a 
"war of ideas," which he claimed could be more successful 
than a "war of personalities."  A less optimistic Budak said 
he will continue to look to Dervis as a "repository of ideas" 
and will continue to support Dervis' efforts to develop 
social democracy.  Budak averred, however, that Dervis' 
ability to influence politics in a meaningful way will now be 
severely limited. 
 
 
---------------- 
And May Never Be 
---------------- 
 
 
6. (C) Relegated to the sidelines, Dervis and his group 
naively hope to change CHP from the "Party of the State" into 
something resembling a European-style social democratic party 
by publishing research papers.  Moreover they will face at 
least three hurdles: 1) internal party resistance to change 
and self-criticism; 2) the reality here that European notions 
of social democracy will find little traction among Turkey's 
conservative poor; and 3) the widespread view of Dervis in 
Anatolia as another Istanbul elite out of touch with the 
common man (reftels).  In the latter regard, Hacioglu claimed 
that "there is a market for Dervis" and that everywhere 
Dervis goes, "Turks want to touch him."  Yet we cannot recall 
one instance in which Dervis has traveled through Anatolia. 
EDELMAN