US embassy cable - 04ABUJA634

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000634 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2014 
TAGS: PHUM, PREL, ZI, NI 
SUBJECT: UNCHR COUNTRY RESOLUTIONS - UNLIKELY NIGERIA WILL 
SUPPORT ZIMBABWE RESOLUTION 
 
REF: A. STATE 77769 
     B. ABUJA 593 
     C. ABUJA 571 
 
Classified By: COUNSELOR JAMES MAXSTADT FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) POLOFF delivered demarche (REF A) requesting support 
for country-specific resolutions at the UNCHR to MFA Second 
United Nations Division Minister Counselor Alhassan A. 
Hussain.  While Hussain was unable to confirm how the GON 
delegation in Geneva intended to vote on other UNCHR 
resolutions (septel), he gave his own opinion on the Zimbabwe 
resolution. 
 
2.  (C) Hussain said the GON would probably join the rest of 
the Africa Group and vote in favor of "no action" on the 
Zimbabwe resolution.  Noting President Obasanjo's position as 
Chairman of the Commonwealth, Hussain said the GON was eager 
to bring Zimbabwe back into the fold with as little conflict 
as possible and thought "carrots would be more effective than 
sticks."  Hussain went on to say that international pressure, 
especially that brought to bear by the UK, had backed Mugabe 
into a corner and made him even more difficult to deal with 
than before Zimbabwe's departure from the Commonwealth in 
December. 
 
3.  (C) COMMENT:  While Hussain's views are widely shared 
within an MFA that is devoted to opposing criticism of 
specific countries, especially specific African countries, 
Nigeria's Zimbabwe policy is made by President Obasanjo, not 
the Ministry.  Nigeria is unlikely to vote in favor of a 
resolution criticizing Zimbabwe, as it has not voted in favor 
of resolutions criticizing other African countries even when 
Nigeria considered them enemies, but President Obasanjo is 
unlikely to go as far out of his way to shield Zimbabwe as 
Hussain suggests.  Obasanjo is known to be irritated with 
Mugabe precisely because of Mugabe's actions on the 
Commonwealth Summit flap, and it is doubtful that he would 
instruct his delegation in Geneva to vote for a no-action 
motion unless it would make Nigeria the odd man out with the 
rest of the Africa Group on the other side. 
ROBERTS