US embassy cable - 04MANAMA529

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000529 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, BA 
SUBJECT: SCENE SETTER FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE'S VISIT 
TO BAHRAIN 
 
REF: MANAMA 528 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Mr. Armitage:  We are delighted you are coming to 
Bahrain, and the Bahraini Government is as well.  King Hamad 
has met Generals Abizaid and Myers during the past two weeks, 
but as political issues move to the fore in Iraq the King had 
hoped a senior State Department official would come here. 
Your visit is, therefore, well timed. 
 
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IRAQ 
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2.  (C)  Hamad and his officials are worried about security 
and stability in the post June 30 Iraq.  Above all, they do 
not want a revolutionary Shia state in Iraq.  They understand 
that Coalition forces will remain in Iraq, but they are not 
convinced we have a viable strategy for forming an Iraqi 
government to whom we can turn over sovereignty.  They will 
ask you about this.  The King and Crown Prince both think we 
need an ex-military strongman.  They discount the utility of 
promoting democracy or drafting a good constitution during 
the next couple of years.  Bahraini public opinion, 
meanwhile, has been considerably more critical of U.S. 
military operations in Iraq due to grim television images 
from Fallujah.  The elected house of the Bahraini Parliament 
issued a statement April 13 denouncing what it called 
"horrible massacres at the hands of U.S. military forces." 
 
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REFORMS and U.S. MIDDLE EAST INITIATIVE 
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3.  (C)  On foreign policy and domestic issues, the elected 
house of Parliament is growing steadily more assertive. 
Parliamentarians are scrutinizing the budget and 
investigating allegations of government corruption.  Several 
ministers may lose their jobs because the elected house will 
vote for motions of no-confidence or force a cabinet 
reshuffle.  There is a strong, conservative Islamist block in 
the Parliament often antagonistic toward the U.S. (they 
pushed the Iraq resolution, for example).  The Parliament is 
likely to block ratification of our signed Article 98 
agreement, and the government has therefore put the Article 
98 on hold. 
. 
4.  (C)  We are using the Middle East Partnership Initiative 
to promote reforms in government, including the Parliament. 
NDI's two-year old program is very popular with the 
parliamentarians, including the Islamists.  MEPI is also 
financing American Bar Association experts working with the 
Justice Minister on judicial reform.  We have launched 
programs on civic education, curriculum reform and 
U.S./Bahraini university linkages with the Ministry of 
Education.  The technocrats in Bahrain have some maneuver 
room for reforms; the Embassy, however, is almost at its 
limit in terms of staff resources to manage new MEPI 
programs. 
 
5.  (C)  Public reaction to our initiative to help reforms 
across the region met with some knee-jerk anti-American 
responses.  More educated persons recognize that the reforms 
are good for Arab societies and reformers should access help 
where they can find it.  The King told Undersecretary 
Grossman last month that he strongly backed our effort, but 
that we should understand some countries, like Saudi Arabia, 
would move relatively slowly. The Foreign Minister told us 
April 13 that the next Arab League summit would issue a 
statement outlining specific reform principles, such as 
democracy, transparency and respect of human rights, which 
should guide the future development of Arab society. 
 
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SECURITY 
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6.  (S/NF)  You have raised with the Bahrainis before our 
concerns about Sunni extremists who move around freely in 
Bahrain.  Bahraini surveillance is not particularly good. 
There is disagreement within the GoB about whether existing 
Bahraini laws suffice to detain these people or charge them 
with conspiracy to commit criminal acts.  The GoB is drafting 
a new anti-terrorism law, and with DS/ATA funding we will 
have U.S. Justice Department officials review the draft with 
the Bahrainis.  There is also a question of political will 
within the GoB, and we suggest you reinforce our demarches 
that the Government must do more to contain the Sunni threat, 
including putting large vehicle scanners on the bridge 
linking Bahrain with Saudi Arabia. 
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TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS 
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7.  (C) The GoB made little concrete progress on TIP in CY 
2003 and remains at Tier II.  Embassy officers and visiting 
Congressional officials have warned this could impede 
Congressional approval of the free trade agreement expected 
to reach congress next autumn.  In particular, the Bahrainis 
need to be tougher on enforcement; they need to punish known 
traffickers taking advantage of South Asians coming here to 
work.  They also need to devote some resources to establish a 
useful hotline and building a refuge shelter for victims. 
Your briefly mentioning these points with the Prime Minister, 
who oversees the Cabinet, would reinforce our own frequent 
discussions with the Government. 
FORD