US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO628

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000628 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  04-14-14 
TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, MOPS, EAID, CE, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  Sri Lanka:  Under pressure from the main LTTE 
organization, forces of rebel commander Karuna buckle 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo - SA/INS 04-13-04 class email 
-      (B) Colombo 620, and previous 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead. 
Reasons 1.5 (b, d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The forces of dissident eastern LTTE 
commander Karuna have buckled in the face of the 
offensive launched by the main LTTE organization on 
April 9.  There is word that Karuna's forces have 
retreated and that hundreds of them have apparently 
surrendered without a fight.  Karuna's precise 
whereabouts are not known at this time.  With the ebb in 
the fighting, the humanitarian situation appears to be 
improving.  Although Karuna may still have some forces 
with him, the main LTTE seems very close to re- 
establishing its dominance in Tamil areas of the east. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2.  (C) COLLAPSE OF KARUNA'S FORCES:  The forces of 
dissident Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 
commander Karuna appear to be buckling in the face of 
the offensive launched by the main LTTE organization on 
April 9.  (Per Ref B, early April 9, the LTTE attacked 
Karuna's forces arrayed near the Verugal river, which 
straddles the border area separating Trincomalee and 
Batticaloa districts.  The LTTE attack was highly 
coordinated and included a seaborne assault.)  According 
to recent reports on the pro-Tiger website "TamilNet," 
the main LTTE faction had captured as of April 13 most 
of the areas of the east formerly claimed by Karuna, 
including several fortified camps.  Mission has heard 
information from several sources that tends to confirm 
the TamilNet claims, and it appears that the main LTTE 
organization has re-established control of Tamil areas 
in Batticaloa District and in much of Ampara District. 
 
3.  (C) At this point, many of Karuna's troops have 
either surrendered to the main LTTE, or have dropped 
their weapons and returned to their home villages. 
Given the fact that there have been no reports of 
fighting between the factions since April 10, it is not 
clear exactly why so many of Karuna's troops have given 
up the fight.  Some press reports have suggested that 
Karuna, in a bid to avert further bloodshed, ordered at 
least some of his forces to demobilize.  At the same 
time, although there appears to have been something of a 
ceasefire in place between the factions due to the Tamil 
New Year holiday, forces loyal to the main LTTE 
organization have fanned out across the east in small 
groups.  By moving to points in the east so quickly and 
with apparent impunity, the main LTTE organization 
appears to have gained the decisive military edge, which 
probably helped convince Karuna's forces that further 
resistance was not wise, thus precipitating the 
surrenders. 
 
4.  (C) KARUNA'S WHEREABOUTS UNKNOWN:  Amid a swirl of 
rumors, Karuna's exact whereabouts are not known.  There 
are reports that Karuna along with the remnants of his 
forces may have retreated into jungles located in 
northern Ampara District.  There are other reports that 
he is deep in the Thoppigala jungle which is located due 
west of Batticaloa city.  In TamilNet postings, the main 
LTTE has asserted that Karuna is now under the 
protection of the Sri Lankan military.  Most Sri Lankan 
military sources, however, have not confirmed these 
reports.  When queried, Agnes Bragadottir, the 
spokesperson of the Norwegian-run Sri Lanka Monitoring 
Mission (SLMM), told poloff on April 13 that the SLMM 
was also unsure of Karuna's whereabouts.  Late April 14, 
DAO received word of an emergency meeting at the Joint 
Operations Headquarters of the Sri Lankan military, 
possibly dealing with Karuna. 
 
5.  (C) The Ambassador spoke to Norwegian Ambassador 
Hans Brattskar on April 12 about the situation in the 
east.  Brattskar confirmed that he had no firm word 
regarding Karuna's location.  He noted that trying to 
get Karuna out of the country would be extremely 
difficult should the matter come up.  UNHCR, for 
example, would not be able to assist Karuna because of 
his very poor human rights record. 
 
6.  (SBU) HUMANITARIAN SITUATION UPDATE:  With the ebb 
in the fighting, the humanitarian situation in the east 
appears to be on the upswing.  From what Mission 
understands, the fighting on April 9-10 displaced 
approximately 3,000 people in Batticaloa District. 
(This figure on displacements only involves those who 
have asked for assistance and the overall figure may be 
higher.)  The Sri Lanka Red Cross and Tamil 
Rehabilitation Organization, a pro-LTTE NGO, are working 
to provide relief to the displaced.  In the meantime, 
contacts in the east report that many of those 
individuals who fled the fighting earlier have now 
returned to their homes.  In addition, in an unexpected 
gesture, the main faction of the LTTE also released 
approximately 150 child soldiers who had previously been 
in Karuna's armed forces.  The children were returned to 
their families on April 12 with UNICEF's assistance. 
 
7.  (C) COMMENT:  The GSL continues to keep out of the 
situation in the east.  This is a net positive because 
if the government interferes militarily on Karuna's side 
it would almost certainly provoke an angry response by 
the main LTTE.  This, in turn, might negatively impact 
the peace process.  That said, if Karuna tries to take 
refuge in a Sri Lankan military base, it would seem 
inhumane if the GSL did not allow him in given that his 
certain sentence if captured by the main LTTE is a 
brutal death.  Overall, although Karuna may still have 
some forces with him, the main LTTE seems to be very 
close to re-establishing its dominance in Tamil areas of 
the east.  END COMMENT. 
 
8.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD