US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN879

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000879 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, AM 
SUBJECT: KOCHARIAN LOOKING FOR A WAY FORWARD, OPPOSITION 
INTRANSIGENT FOR NOW 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
------------------------ 
KOCHARIAN SEEKING ADVICE 
------------------------ 
 
1. (C) Following the forceful break-up of the opposition 
demonstration at roughly 2:00 a.m. April 13 (septel) and the 
subsequent detentions, Kocharian convoked the Ambassador, 
saying, "I invited you in order to consult with you on the 
internal political situation."  Although Kocharian did not 
appear to be entirely ready yet to move forward, and 
mentioned his intention to have the Prosecutor-General follow 
up with criminal cases against opposition figures, he did 
actively seek the opportunity to take our advice on board. 
The Ambassador urged him in the strongest possible terms to 
cease the detentions of political opponents and to forego 
criminal cases against them.  Ambassador Ordway emphasized 
that the government can avoid making the situation worse by 
choosing not to pursue political leaders with criminal 
charges (even if they have allegedly committed technically 
illegal acts). 
 
--------------------------------------- 
OPPOSITION IN A FURY, UNWILLING TO TALK 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Notwithstanding the fact that the opposition 
demonstrators and leaders painted themselves into a corner 
with Monday night's demonstration blocking one of Yerevan's 
major streets by not simply declaring "victory" and going 
home at dark, or at any other point earlier in the eight 
hours that the government tolerated the rally, they are livid 
at what has been happening since the rally was forcibly 
broken up early Tuesday morning.  We have spoken with 
opposition leaders from across the spectrum, and it is clear 
that they are unwilling to enter into any sort of dialogue 
for the moment.  The Ambassador spoke by telephone during the 
course of the day with Stepan Demirchian and Artashes 
Geghamian, the two principal opposition leaders, as well as 
several other major opposition figures.  He also spoke with 
the Speaker of Parliament and the Minister of Justice.  The 
opposition leaders were in an absolute fury over what had 
transpired.  While none of the leaders had any clear idea of 
where to go at this juncture, they rejected categorically the 
Ambassador's suggestion of dialogue and engagement with the 
authorities.  Both the Speaker and the Justice Minister, by 
contrast, strongly endorsed the need for a political dialogue 
and moving the current confrontation from the streets into a 
constructive venue, such as the Parliament. 
 
3. (C) The opposition faces insurmountable odds in their 
campaign to oust President Kocharian.  Although they appear 
sincere in their belief that the majority of the country 
supports them and their current course of aggressively 
seeking Kocharian's departure, neither we nor any other 
objective outside observer shares that view.  Moreover, the 
opposition's inability to agree on any positive policy 
platform undercuts their ability to appeal to, let alone 
consolidate, general popular dissatisfaction with Kocharian. 
They now find themselves in a blind alley, with few 
attractive options. 
 
----------------------- 
BURDEN ON THE PRESIDENT 
----------------------- 
 
4. (C) This circumstance puts the burden on President 
Kocharian to create sufficient political space to allow the 
opposition the option of turning from the streets to a 
political process.  It appears that at least some, and 
probably all, of the coalition members are willing and eager 
to engage in such a dialogue.  This will require the 
President to back off, and the opposition to overcome their 
current outraged hostility and return to the political arena. 
ORDWAY