US embassy cable - 04CARACAS1247

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 001247 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: REVALIDATING THE SIGNATURES -- VOICES OF DISSENT 
 
REF: CARACAS 00945 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for reasons 1.4 
(B) and (D) 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) The Coordinadora Democratica (CD) has pressed forward, 
negotiating with the National Electoral Council (CNE) a 
process for verifying petition signatures for a presidential 
recall referendum (CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez announced 
April 6 that the sides were close to agreement).  There are 
dissident voices among the Chavez opponents, chief among them 
Proyecto Venezuela, which has taken a hard line against 
negotiations.  Many CD party leaders privately object to 
pushing for an appeals process, viewing it as a means for 
Chavez to legitimize his rule with the opposition's tacit 
endorsement, though they insist, paradoxically, that a 
referendum is the only way to solve Venezuela's crisis.  End 
Summary. 
 
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People Will Blame CD for Inevitable Reparo Failure 
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2. (C) Gente de Pueblo (GP) strategist and pollster Shelby 
Cabezas believes the appeals process (reparo) for the 
signatures presented to petition for a presidential recall 
referendum will fail and bring anyone endorsing the process 
down with it.  Cabezas claimed his polling information 
indicates that the broad opposition umbrella group 
Coordinadora Democratica (CD) is losing popular support in 
lockstep with the "Chavez controlled" CNE.  He claimed 
private polling data from mid-March showed 48 percent of the 
public had no faith in the CNE and 45 percent had no faith in 
the CD (down 20 percent since mid-February). 
 
3. (C) Cabezas postulated that the CD is increasingly viewed 
as collaborating in a sham process that will result in the 
legitimization of the Chavez regime.  Cabezas claimed 
negotiating for political objective, such as currying 
international support or obtaining favorable terms for 
regional elections, are lost on the "common people." He 
asserted that the public is losing confidence in CD 
leadership, and "when August comes and there is still no 
recall, people will be mad not at Chavez, but at the CD." 
Henrique Salas Romer, he told poloff, will appear sage-like 
in the aftermath and his Proyecto Venezuela (PV) party will 
reap the electoral rewards.  Salas' support has risen 12 
percent following his decision not to negotiate, according to 
Cabezas, who speculated that Alianza Bravo Pueblo, Primero 
Justicia, and small movements like GP will eventually abandon 
the reparo process. 
 
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Proyecto Venezuela: Reparo is a Trap 
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4. (C) Proyecto Venezuela Deputy Pedro Diaz Blum told poloff 
March 17 that PV's hard line against negotiating the appeals 
is risky, but he believes they will be justified when the 
process is revealed as a trap.   He asserted that, based on 
figures released by the CNE March 2, the opposition would 
need a 70 percent turnout to trigger a recall referendum, 
"impossible in any electoral event."  He criticized the OAS 
for continuing negotiations "after they admitted the process 
was fraudulent," legitimizing Chavez and delegitimizing 
themselves. 
 
5. (C) Diaz Blum lambasted the CD for cutting PV out of 
previous negotiations and claimed it exists to promote 
Miranda Governor Enrique Mendoza's presidential aspirations. 
He asserted that criticism that PV's intransigence is hurting 
the CD's negotiating strength is overblown.  Just because PV 
wants to distance itself from old, discredited political 
parties and does not endorse Mendoza, Diaz Blum explained, 
does not mean it will stop working with the CD to get rid of 
Chavez. 
 
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Construyendo Pais: Going Along, For Now 
 
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6. (C) National Assembly Deputy Leopoldo Martinez 
(Construyendo Pais) told poloff March 10 he did not want to 
endorse the appeals process, but he does not want to destroy 
the CD either, as he claimed Salas Romer was trying to do. 
Staying in negotiations may be the only game in town, 
Martinez explained, but it is not without a cost: the 
confidence of the people.  The CD, he said, risks giving 
Chavez legitimacy if it blunders the appeals.  Martinez also 
suspected CD leaders might be using the negotiations to angle 
for favorable conditions for regional elections. 
 
7. (C) Martinez lamented that CD leaders fail to understand 
that Chavez wants the appeals process to "prove" the 
signatures are fakes and legitimize his rule.  He claimed 
pressure on signers to recant by screening them for GOV 
employment and benefits is working (ref).  As people 
increasing view the recall as futile, Martinez postulated, 
they may decide not to risk publicly demonstrating their 
opposition to Chavez.  He said Chavistas are also hoping to 
invalidate some 400,000 approved signatures by pressuring GOV 
employees, job applicants, and beneficiaries. 
 
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Primero Justicia Divided Over Appeals Process 
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8. (C) National Assembly Deputy Carlos Ocariz told poloff 
April 1 that the appeals process has created ruptures in PJ 
between those who want to quit negotiating and those, like 
himself, who view continued negotiations as the only way to 
expose the GOV's "fraudulent CNE."  Ocariz admitted that a 
failed appeals process might make negotiators "guilty by 
association" with the CNE, but walking away, he asserted, 
would only cede legitimacy to Chavez, who would claim the 
opposition rejected a reasonable, legal process.  "This may 
be a trap we have to walk into." 
 
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Un Solo Pueblo: CD Unity Trumps Reparo Doubts 
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9. (C) Un Solo Pueblo Media Director Adriana Sanoja told 
poloff March 26 that although USP has little doubt the 
appeals process will fail, it is going along with 
negotiations.  She said Salas Romer invited USP and other CD 
members to a meeting to gain support for a hard line against 
the appeals process.  Sanoja claimed the effort backfired and 
helped unify them, albeit grudgingly, behind the negotiation 
strategy.  "He wants to kill the CD, we can't be part of 
this," she said. 
 
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Comment 
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10. (C) We continue to promote negotiations to reach 
agreement on an appeals process with both opposition and GOV 
contacts, although we remain aware of the undercurrents 
opposed to doing so.  While many opposition voices have 
condemned Salas Romer's refusal to negotiate, other voices in 
the CD correctly point out that embracing negotiation is also 
not without risks.  Negotiation proponents in the CD will 
need to better explain their strategy, particularly to the 
"common people" that Cabezas accuses of not comprehending the 
finer points of negotiation, if they want to ensure the 
highest possible participation when, and if, an agreement to 
go forward is reached. 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA01247 - CONFIDENTIAL