US embassy cable - 04GUATEMALA874

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000874 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, GT 
SUBJECT: CONGRESS HALF WAY TO ELECTORAL REFORM 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  In a last-minute shift by the ruling GANA 
coalition, the Congress approved the articles of a 
long-pending electoral reform law on March 31 by a two-thirds 
majority.  Final approval was deferred until after Congress 
returns from the Easter holiday break.  GANA Congressional 
leaders initially opposed the bill, but gave in to opposition 
demands to pass it in the face of growing internal 
dissension.  President Berger has said he will sign the law 
despite calls (including from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal) 
for its veto.  Political parties support the reforms in part 
due to the public financing they hope to receive based on 
results in the November 2003 election.  To achieve consensus 
on what everyone acknowledges as an imperfect reform, all 
major parties agreed to address weaknesses in the election 
bill through amendments within 90 days.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
2.  (U) The reforms have a tortured legislative history. 
They had their genesis in a Commission on Electoral Reform 
established in 1997 in compliance with the Peace Accords. 
The reforms were submitted to Congress in 1998, passed 
Congress in 2002 and were sent to the Constitutional Court, 
which mandated changes in 2003.  Electoral reform is an 
element of the National Shared Agenda agreed to by all major 
parties prior to the 2003 election, and by extension part of 
the Governability Pact negotiated at the outset of this 
Government among the GANA, UNE and PAN.  The reform contains 
147 articles, which were voted on individually on March 31, 
including, most significantly, public financing for political 
parties and decentralization of voting booths, which are 
currently limited to municipal centers. 
 
3.  (U) Prior to the vote, magistrates of the Supreme 
Electoral Tribunal and others criticized several aspects of 
the reforms, including: 
 
-- unclear language on what institution would produce the new 
national identity and voting document 
 
-- weaknesses in oversight of campaign spending 
 
-- a requirement to locate voting booths in any towns of 500 
or more voters 
 
-- removal of a requirement for minority representation in 
party leadership 
 
-- increased requirements for forming new parties that favor 
current parties 
 
4.  (U) In response to these criticisms, party leaders (with 
the exception of the ANN and some independents) agreed to 
debate amendments to address these issues within the next 90 
days.  They also agreed to speed consideration of unrelated 
items on the legislative agenda, including reform of the 
Social Security Institute, authorization of a postal service 
contract, and a measure to arbitrate national electricity 
price increases. 
 
GANA Flip-Flop 
-------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) GANA Congressional Whip Ricardo Saravia told 
PolOffs on March 26 that the GANA opposed the measure as 
imperfect and would vote to kill it.  Later, the GANA agreed 
to vote in favor of the bill after facing the threat of a 
public split on the issue with the Patriotic Party, one of 
the three members of the GANA coalition, and concerted 
lobbying by the PAN and UNE, the GANA's Governability Pact 
partners.  Saravia added that GANA still needs the PAN and 
UNE as it can count only on 12 of the 20 independent 
votes--leaving it well short of a working majority.  PAN 
Congressional whip Mario Taracena told PolOff on April 2 
that, although there was no quorum for the final vote on 
April 1, he believed the inter-party accord would hold and 
the measure would pass with the required 2/3 majority after 
Congress returns from its Easter recess.  The measure is 
supported by all major parties except the tiny New Nation 
Alliance.  Taracena said the press portrayal of inter-party 
negotiations on this issue as acrimonious was not true, and 
said the electoral law's passage will signal a new atmosphere 
of cooperation in Congress. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (SBU) The reforms are long overdue and generally 
positive.  While the primary incentive for passage by the 
opposition is financial, the GANA has a large stake in future 
inter-party cooperation on other national issues in a very 
divided Congress.  If passed, more tough negotiations can be 
expected on the amendments to the reforms. 
HAMILTON