US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN860

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000860 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM 
SUBJECT:  APRIL 9 DEMONSTRATIONS PEACEFUL, EVEN 
BORING 
 
REFS:  A) YEREVAN 809  B) YEREVAN 844 
 
1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please treat 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) Roughly ten thousand opposition 
demonstrators rallied peacefully April 9 in Yerevan 
on Opera Square.  In a meeting plagued by technical 
difficulties they called for Kocharian's 
resignation, and announced they will be "occupying" 
Opera Square until Kocharian leaves office.  End 
Summary. 
 
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RETIREES, THE UNEMPLOYED, STUDENTS -- AND MALE 
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3. (SBU) About 90 percent of the roughly ten 
thousand opposition supporters who gathered in Opera 
Square on a warm and sunny Friday afternoon were 
male, mostly beyond retirement age (with a few 
students as well, including one twenty-something 
youth sporting a red Che Guevara sweatshirt with the 
slogan "Hasta La Vista, Baby").  The crowd started 
gathering about 3:30 for a scheduled 4:00 rally, and 
stayed largely quiet while the organizers labored to 
get their sound system working -- the speeches 
started about 5:00.  As the crowd lackadaisically 
cheered an occasional comment from the podium, spit 
sunflower seeds and bought ice cream from 
enterprising vendors, a large security presence 
(both uniformed police and plainclothes) kept a 
close eye on proceedings and the crowd. 
 
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NOT ENOUGH UNITY TO NAME A SINGLE SPOKESMAN... 
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4. (SBU) While highlighting their recent decision to 
work together toward Kocharian's ouster and posing 
with arms linked and upraised, opposition leaders 
each took an extended turn at the microphone.  With 
the Communists calling for a return to the Soviet 
era, when "everything was better," and other 
opposition leaders attacking everything from 
Minister of Defense Serzh Sargsian's gambling to the 
Yerevan Brandy Company privatization, the only thing 
they all agreed on was calling for Kocharian's 
resignation.  Republic Party leader Aram Sargsian 
announced (to a somewhat skeptical crowd) that 
"negotiations are underway" and that President 
Kocharian might be resigning "even before this 
meeting is over." 
 
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CALLING FOR A SIT-IN 
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5. (SBU) People's Party of Armenia Chairman Stepan 
Demirchian announced that the opposition had decided 
not to march to the Presidential Palace because of 
the heavy security presence there and because the 
opposition didn't want to do anything that might 
give the government "the excuse to create a 
provocation."  Instead of a march, rally organizers 
called for all "strong men" to stay in Opera Square 
until Kocharian resigns.  After asking if there was 
"anyone in the crowd who can sing or tell stories" 
to come up to the microphone to entertain those 
staging the sit-in the majority of the opposition 
supporters were leaving the square.  While we expect 
that perhaps as many as several hundred supporters 
may stay Friday night, we expect people will go home 
for Easter at the latest.  Rally organizers 
announced an April 10 follow-on meeting at 6:00 to 
"discuss further steps." 
 
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RESTRAINT ON ALL SIDES 
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6. (SBU) Security forces around the rally were 
attentive, but even when following reporters through 
the crowd they stayed at least 10-15 feet away, and 
seemed to be under orders to avoid trouble.  When, 
for example, an older gentleman was absently 
spinning an open pocketknife they moved closer, but 
as soon as they realized he posed no threat they 
moved away again without confronting him. 
 
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COMMENT:  NO "BUZZ" IN THE CROWD 
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7. (SBU) Ten thousand people at a rally is more than 
we've seen since the demonstrations following last 
year's elections, but there was no real excitement 
in the crowd.  The end of the rally was clearly anti- 
climactic, and organizers never built up the level 
of emotional support that they had in 2003.  We will 
continue to watch the situation carefully, but for 
now see little prospect for radical change (ref A). 
ORDWAY