US embassy cable - 04PANAMA828

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PANAMA 000828 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
DEPT. FOR WHA/CEN/BRIGHAM 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, SOCI, PM, POLITICS & FOREIGN POLICY 
SUBJECT: PANAMA PUBLIC OPINION POLLS NOT DEPENDABLE 
INDICATORS OF ELECTION RESULTS 
 
 
SUMMARY: POLLS DON'T PICK PRESIDENTS 
------------------------------------- 
1. (SBU) Panama's nationally-published public opinion polls 
are probably biased, do not offer a dependable measure of 
Panamanians' voting preferences, and probably will not 
accurately predict outcomes for the May 2 elections.  While 
we still think Martin Torrijos will win the May 2, 2004 
presidential vote, in 1994 and 1999, public opinion polls 
published in Panama dailies failed to correctly rank 
presidential candidates, or even predict the winner.  For 
instance, in this year's race Partido Arnulfista (PA) 
candidate Jose Miguel Aleman only escaped single-digit 
opinion poll rankings in January 2004, but his alliance has 
401,225 registered voters (among an electorate of almost 2 
million potential voters).  Revolutionary Democratic Party 
(PRD) candidate Martin Torrijos, whose party has 434,000 
registered voters, remains the front-runner by any measure, 
but former President Guillermo Endara's "lead" over Aleman is 
dubious. End Summary. 
 
 
 
 
ABOUT THE PUBLISHED POLLS 
------------------------- 
2. (SBU) There are two main reasons that polls in Panama 
inaccurately predict electoral results.  First, while 75% of 
Panama's registered voters will vote, guessing who will and 
who won't vote is nearly impossible for pollsters.  Second, 
party affiliation in Panama is crucial for many voters, but 
polls often can't capture the vote-winning potential of 
candidates who are backed by coalitions with large numbers of 
loyal members. 
 
 
3. (U) The CID Gallup poll (published in El Panama America) 
and the Dichter & Neira poll (published in La Prensa) have 
the longest track records, but they mis-forecast electoral 
results in 1999.  Critics question their objectivity because 
they both perform for-fee services for specific political 
parties.  La Prensa founder Roberto Eisenmann had trumpeted 
the independence of Dichter & Neira, but PolOffs recently 
learned of candidates for whom Dichter & Neira provides 
private polling services.  Critics also assert that newspaper 
editors and publishers are biased, further threatening the 
credibility of poll results.  The Board of Directors of both 
La Prensa and El Panama America are packed with Torrijos 
supporters. 
 
 
4. (U) Polls failed to accurately predict voting results in 
Panama's two most recent national elections.  In 1999, public 
opinion polls showed Martin Torrijos (who finished second 
with 37.8% of the vote) leading Mireya Moscoso (who won with 
44.8%) until just two weeks before the elections.  Polls in 
1994 correctly pegged the winner, Ernesto Perez Balladares 
(EPB), but overestimated support for eventual third-place and 
fourth-place finishers Ruben Blades and Ruben Dario Carles to 
the detriment of Mireya Moscoso, who finished a close second. 
 
 
5. (SBU) The credibility of three other public opinion polls 
with shorter track records is also in doubt.  Recently formed 
PSM Siglo Dos, which publishes results in top selling tabloid 
La Critica, also does private polling for Torrijos' 
Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) and its candidates.  The 
intellectual author of El Siglo's monthly "2004 Political 
Monitor" is former PRD activist Jaime Porcell and El Siglo 
President Ebrahim Asvat openly advocates for Martin Torrijos. 
 
 
6. (SBU) Unlike most other polls, the "Decision 2004" poll, 
published consistently in La Estrella de Panam, shows 
Solidarity candidate Guillermo Endara well behind Arnulfista 
Jose Miguel Aleman.  La Estrella's bias toward the Moscoso 
administration is so well known that even Aleman's campaign 
manager recently told PolOff that Aleman decided not to place 
an anti-Torrijos advertisement there since, "people would 
laugh at us if we published it in La Estrella." 
 
 
NOT EVERYONE VOTES 
------------------ 
6. (SBU) May 2, 2004 voting results probably will differ 
markedly from pre-election polls because the pollsters have 
not yet learned to identify likely voters.  (Perhaps 25-30% 
of registered voters will not vote.)  In addition, some 
Arnulfistas allege that lingering memories of Panama's 
21-year military dictatorship make some respondents reluctant 
to reveal their true voting preference to pollsters. 
Fourth-place candidate Ricardo Martinelli hired a firm to 
perform a "likely voter" poll, which clearly predicted a 
Torrijos win.  It prompted Martinelli's campaign manager to 
tell PolOff, "unless the U.S. Government declares Torrijos a 
national enemy, and maybe not even then, he'll be Panama's 
next President." 
 
 
CORE MEMBERSHIP DRIVES PRESIDENTIAL VOTE 
---------------------------------------- 
7. (SBU) Historically, core supporters of the PRD and the PA 
tend to vote for whoever is running on their party's slate. 
The following figures recount how the seven parties fared in 
presidential voting during Panama's 1994 and 1999 general 
elections: 
 
 
  PARTY                                     1994    1999 
  -----                                     ----    ---- 
  Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD)     30.0%   31.0% 
  Arnulfista Party (PA)                    19.8%   28.7% 
  Liberal Republican Movement (MOLIRENA)   10.8%   10.9% 
  Popular Party (PP)                        2.4%   10.6% 
  Solidarity Party (PS)                     1.7%    4.9% 
  National Liberal Party (PLN)              ***     2.8% 
  Democratic Change Party (CD)              ***     2.8% 
  *** Neither the PLN nor CD existed in 1994. 
 
 
On May 2, 2004, the PP probably will be lucky to survive as a 
party with 4% of the vote (as required under Panama's 
electoral law), while Solidarity will do much better, with 
former president Guillermo Endara as its standard bearer. 
 
 
8. (SBU) The PRD, with its sophisticated electoral machine, 
has assigned teams in each administrative division to make 
sure local party members have transportation to the polls 
(and a free meal in many cases).  The Arnulfistas are 
preparing for the elections much like the PRD.  During 
provincial trips, PolOffs observed that the Solidarity Party 
lacks the funds or manpower to develop the same sort of 
infrastructure at the local level, although Endara campaign 
officials stoutly maintain that they will get out the vote. 
 
 
MIGRANTS AND TURNCOATS 
---------------------- 
9. (SBU) Analogous more to snapshots than videos, polls 
cannot capture subtle changes in voter mood, due to 
candidates and voters migrating between parties or 
legislators who campaign hard for themselves but quietly 
endorse another party's candidate for President.  Migrations 
occur at the highest levels, like Torrijos' first VP 
candidate Samuel Lewis Navarro, who left the Solidarity Party 
in late 2003 to join his friend Martin.  Mobile components of 
the electorate are typically non-core voters, many of whom 
register in a party only to support a pre-candidate who may 
eventually lose an internal race.  Those voters lose interest 
if their favorite candidate is no longer running and may not 
even vote.  For over a year, the PRD has been aware that 
Legislator Olivia de Pomares a supporter of former President 
Ernesto Perez Balladares (1994-99), hasn't lifted a finger to 
promote the candidacy of Martin Torrijos.  Arnulfista sources 
recently told PolOffs that Pomares and others are urging 
their supporters to vote for Aleman for President (a strategy 
aimed at setting the stage for another run for president by 
Perez Balladares in 2009). 
 
 
COMMENT: PREDICTION WRAP-UP 
--------------------------- 
10. (SBU) PolOffs have heard plausible arguments explaining 
why Torrijos, Endara, or Aleman (but not Martinelli) will win 
on May 2.  The polls meanwhile mostly show Torrijos well 
ahead, mostly agree that Endara is second, and Martinelli 
last.  A very dubious "Decision 2004" poll that La Estrella 
published on March 31 showed Aleman ahead of Endara by nearly 
24% and only a 2.1% gap between Torrijos (39.2%) and Aleman 
(37.1%).  Embassy believes Torrijos will win the presidency, 
but the Endara vs. Aleman battle for second-place is too 
close to call. 
 
 
MCMULLEN