US embassy cable - 04MANAMA498

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAMA 000498 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ARP 
CAIRO FOR STEVE BONDY 
LONDON FOR ETHAN GOLDRICH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2029 
TAGS: PINS, ASEC, PREL, BA 
SUBJECT: BAHRAINI SHIA INITIALLY COOL ON MUQTADA AL-SADR 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
 (d) 
 
1.  (C)  Even if Coalition operations to arrest Muqtada 
Al-Sadr result in his death, Bahraini Shia are unlikely to 
react violently.  On April 7 POL Section polled a wide 
spectrum of Shia contacts regarding the spike in violence in 
Iraq. The majority of our Shia contacts doubted that the 
apprehension of Al-Sadr would have an impact on Bahraini 
Shia. Former exilee and Al-Wifaq member Nizar Al Qari told 
PolOff on April 7 that Bahraini Shi'a look for guidance from 
religious leaders like Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Al-Sistani 
and Lebanon's Fadlallah.  Al-Sadr is from an entirely 
different school of thought and often in disagreement with 
Al-Sistani.  It is unlikely that either Al-Sistani or 
Fadhlallah would call Shia in the region to revenge Al-Sadr's 
death, he said. 
 
2.  (C)  In addition, Al Qari mentioned to PolOff on April 7 
that Shaikh Ali Salman President of the largest Shia 
political society Al Wifaq, traveled to Najav to visit with 
Ayatollah Al-Sistani and to stay with his close friend, IGC 
member and member of the Islamic Da'wa party Ibrahim 
Al-Ja'fari.  Upon his return Shaikh Ali Salman informed his 
members that the Shi'a would not interfere with developments 
in Iraq. 
 
3.  (C)  Some Shi'a contacts consider Al-Sadr too young to 
deserve a Bahraini reaction.  Youth Forum member Jaafer Hamza 
told PolFSN on April 7 that Al-Sadr is a stupid political 
teenager.  Hamza was not surprised that Al-Sadr ordered 
Al-Khui's murder and those who understand Iraq know that 
"Al-Sadr is digging his own grave." Most other Shia contacts, 
however, suspect that the evidence against Al-Sadr in the 
murder of Al-Khui is a USG fabrication in its ploy to occupy 
Iraq beyond June 30. 
 
4.  (C)  Comment:  It would help our own work trying to keep 
Bahrain's Shia majority on board with our policies in Iraq if 
some details of the investigation into Sadr's involvement in 
Ayatollah al-Khui's death could be released.  Information 
about the arrest warrant and accusations won't help us much. 
We could better use background details about how the 
information which led to the arrest warrant was developed. 
FORD