US embassy cable - 04LILONGWE289

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LILONGWE 000289 
 
SIPDIS 
 
USAID FOR DCHA/FFP LANDIS, WELLER, MUTAMBA, SKORIC, 
PETERSEN AND BROWN 
USAID FOR DCHA/OFDA HALMRAST-SANCHEZ, BORNS, MARX, 
KHANDAGLE AND AUSTRENG 
USAID FOR AFR/DP SMITH, KNEPP 
USAID FOR AFR/SD WHELAN 
USAID FOR AFR/SA COOKE AND LOKEN 
DEPT FOR AF/S, INR/GGI, PM/ISP 
NCS FOR DWORKEN 
NAIROBI FOR CASHION, ESTES, KSMITH, AND DEPREZ 
MAPUTO FOR BLISS AND POLAND 
LUSAKA FOR GUNTHER, GRIFFITH 
HARARE FOR ATWOOD AND BUZZARD 
PRETORIA FOR DISKIN, HALE, SINK, AND FAS REYNOLDS 
GABORONE FOR KHUPE 
ROME FOR FODAG 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID, EAGR, MI, Development, Agriculture/Food Security 
SUBJECT: SITUATION REPORT 28: HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN 
MALAWI STABLE, BUT COULD DETERIORATE POST-HARVEST 
 
 
1.  SUMMARY.  THIS IS A JOINT USAID/DCHA-USAID/MALAWI 
REPORTING CABLE.  FROM MARCH 26-31, TWO FFP OFFICERS, OFDA 
REGIONAL ADVISOR, AND USAID/MALAWI AGRICULTURAL ADVISOR 
PARTICIPATED IN THE ONGOING VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (VAC) 
IN MALAWI.  DESPITE THIS TIME PERIOD BEING THE HEIGHT OF 
THE HUNGER SEASON, THE CURRENT HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN 
MALAWI SEEMS TO BE STABLE.  HOWEVER, SUMMER CROP PROSPECTS 
IN MANY AREAS OF SOUTHERN MALAWI ARE POOR, POTENTIALLY 
LEADING TO RENEWED HUMANITARIAN NEEDS DURING THE 2004-2005 
HUNGER SEASON.  PRODUCTION IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE, 
WHERE MANY MALAWIANS ARE CURRENTLY PERFORMING CASUAL LABOR 
AND BUYING MAIZE, WILL ALSO IMPACT BORDER AREAS IN 
CHIKWAWA AND NSANJE DISTRICTS.  AS THE ISSUE OF FOOD 
SECURITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY POLITICAL WITH THE APPROACH 
OF ELECTIONS, DONOR FRUSTRATION IS MOUNTING FOLLOWING THE 
IMPROPER RELEASE OF 30,000 MT OF MAIZE FROM THE GOM'S 
STRATEGIC RESERVES TO THE PARASTATAL, ADMARC.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
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VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 
------------------------ 
2. From March 26-31, USAID staff traveled with two of the 
four VAC teams to assess food security prospects for the 
coming year in Malawi.  The teams are conducting 
interviews with staff from the Ministry of Agriculture, 
Irrigation, and Food Security (MOAIFS) and communities in 
vulnerable districts throughout the country.  Their 
primary data will be combined with secondary data from a 
variety of sources to provide the likely scenario for the 
coming months.  Members of the VAC come from various 
organizations, including three GOM ministries or offices, 
FAO, WFP, FEWS, and several NGOs.  The VAC uses the 
household food economy approach and is led by Save the 
Children/UK, a recognized expert in this methodology. 
 
3. USAID staff traveled to the most vulnerable districts 
of southern Malawi: Chikwawa and Nsanje (Lower Shire); and 
Zomba, Chiradzulu, Mangochi, and Machinga (Shire 
Highlands).  In general, the team concluded that the 
current situation is stable, particularly as last year's 
harvest was improved over previous years.  However, the 
upcoming summer harvest in these areas is extremely 
concerning.  Selected communities across all wealth groups 
consistently anticipated much reduced yields due to the 
late onset of the rains and prolonged drought conditions. 
As previously reported, the main rains were delayed in 
southern Malawi by more than two months this year, 
resulting in late or multiple plantings.  However, the 
rains ended in early March in most areas, thus leaving 
crops to wilt during a critical stage of growth.  Should 
the rains recommence now, most farmers still anticipate 
only a minor possibility of harvesting some sorghum and 
millet. 
 
4. As a result, the team anticipates that the 2004-2005 
hunger season will begin earlier than usual (as early as 
July) and could substantially impact the poorest 
households with little ability to cope.  However, the 
severity of impact will depend upon numerous factors, such 
as winter production prospects and the situation in 
surrounding parts of Mozambique.  Many farmers in these 
areas plant winter crops in wetlands along the Shire 
River.  Others without access to wetlands depend upon 
"ganyu" opportunities in Malawi and Mozambique to 
supplement their food production.  Communities already 
anticipate that winter production will be reduced due to 
low water levels in the wetlands.  Some communities are 
already employing coping mechanisms such as selling off 
assets, gathering firewood, and consuming wild foods. 
 
5. However, the conditions decribed above are not 
representative of the country-wide situation.  The VAC 
report will consolidate the findings of all teams and 
should be better able to highlight food security status 
for the coming year.  The report will be released by the 
end of April.  In addition, the Crop and Food Supply 
Assessment Mission (CFSAM) is scheduled for the end of 
April and will be able to determine crop production at the 
time of harvest. 
 
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REPEATED MISTAKES 
----------------- 
6. As previously reported, ADMARC continues to sell maize 
at subsidized prices (10 MK/kg) well below those of the 
world market.  Such sales are not targeted to those who 
need it most.  Anecdotal evidence suggests that private 
traders are purchasing the subsidized maize (when it is 
available) and reselling it to communities for a profit. 
In most southern areas, current prices are 20 MK/kg and 
higher. 
 
7.  Once ADMARC depots ran out of commercial stocks in 
February, the GOM issued a directive on March 6 that 
ADMARC depots must have a supply within five days.  Thus, 
the GOM ordered the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) to 
release 30,000 MT from the strategic reserves for ADMARC 
depots.  Such a release violated the rules established by 
the NFRA Technical Committee, including the regulation 
that bidders must provide a bank guarantee for purchases. 
Donors were furious with these actions, prompting an 
apology from the GOM published in The Nation on March 27. 
However, the damage is done and such actions eerily mirror 
those of three years ago when the GOM sold off its 
reserves prior to the last crisis. 
 
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NUTRITION 
--------- 
8. Overall, the nutrition situation in Malawi is 
relatively stable.  Nutritional surveys conducted in five 
districts of Malawi between December and February found 
global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates of less than 3 
percent.  However, a concerning amount of oedema was 
observed in the surveys, potentially in part due to lack 
of dietary diversity. 
 
9.  Various NGOs have also conducted rapid MUAC screening 
to identify areas of concern.  The main areas of concern 
include parts of Nsanje, Chikwawa, Mwanza, and Lilongwe 
Districts.  Several GOM Nutritional Rehabilitation Units 
(NRUs) have reported increased numbers of admissions. 
WFP, Concern Worldwide, and World Vision are conducting 
supplementary feeding in some of these areas, and the OFDA- 
funded CoGuard consortium is planning supplementary 
distributions as needed in April.  Nutrition activities 
are being coordinated through the Targeted Nutrition 
Programs (TNP) working group chaired by the Ministry of 
Health and UNICEF. 
 
------------------------------ 
STATUS OF DISASTER DECLARATION 
------------------------------ 
10. According to USAID/Malawi, talk within the GOM of 
declaring a disaster seems to have died down in the last 
couple of weeks.  However, incentive to declare a disaster 
remains high with upcoming elections slated for May 18. 
Food security continues to be an issue debated in the 
national press and discussed at political rallies.  The US 
Mission has agreed to advise DCHA/OFDA of any change in 
the situation and to contact the Southern Africa Regional 
Office (SARO) prior to making any official declaration. 
DOUGHERTY