US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN830

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000830 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PARM, TU, AJ, AM,  OVIP (RICHARD ARMITAGE) 
SUBJECT: REAFFIRMING TIES WITH ARMENIA:  DEPUTY SECRETARY 
MEETS WITH OSKANIAN AND KOCHARIAN 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's visit 
to Armenia galvanized U.S.-Armenia relations as he met with 
Armenian Foreign Minister Oskanian and President Kocharian in 
back-to-back meetings March 26.  The meeting with Oskanian 
clearly set the agenda for the subsequent discussion with 
Kocharian, and the two meetings covered the range of the 
U.S.-Armenian agenda, touching briefly on Armenian domestic 
issues before moving to the range of Armenia's relationships 
with its neighbors Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia, Russia and 
Iran.  The Foreign Minister and President also discussed 
Armenia's readiness to engage NATO and work on improving 
U.S.-Armenian military cooperation with the Deputy Secretary, 
including a new proposal (see paragraph 9).  End Summary. 
 
----------------------- 
STRIKINGLY WARM WELCOME 
----------------------- 
 
2. (C) Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian himself greeted the 
Deputy Secretary and his party at the airport, a distinction 
usually reserved for heads of state.  (Note:  Oskanian had 
changed his travel plans to suit the Deputy Secretary's 
schedule; he was to have been in Minsk for new Russian 
Foreign Minister Lavrov's first CIS Ministerial.  End Note.) 
President Kocharian chose to conduct most of his meeting in 
English:  an indication of his desire to create a welcoming 
and cooperative atmosphere.  The core of the U.S. side in the 
meetings consisted of Deputy Secretary Armitage, EUR A/S 
Jones, NSC Bryza and Charge.  The Foreign Minister was joined 
by Deputy Foreign Minister Tatul Margarian, Head of the 
Americas Desk Lilit Toutkhalian and other staff.  The 
President was joined by Oskanian, Minister of Defense Serzh 
Sargsian as well as staff members. 
 
-------------------------------- 
ANTICIPATING OPPOSITION ACTIVITY 
-------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Oskanian previewed possible domestic difficulties, 
noting that "We're going through a difficult period.  Our 
opposition got excited at the example of (the Rose Revolution 
in) Georgia."  He acknowledged that there will be some 
opposition demonstrations, and continued, "There will be 
tough times on both sides."  Oskanian admitted that "our 
(presidential) elections were flawed" and he referred to 
international criticism as "to the point;" nonetheless, he 
noted that, "unlike Georgia, no one really questioned the 
outcome."  In this context Oskanian raised the National 
Democratic Institute's (NDI) role in Armenia, saying that he 
thinks "they're doing a wonderful job."  (Note:  NDI's 
activities in Armenia are focused on building political party 
capacity.  End Note.)  He complained, however, that every 
time the opposition meets with NDI, the opposition portrays 
their meeting both to their own members and to the Armenian 
public in general as "proof" that the U.S. backs their cause. 
 The Deputy Secretary made clear to Oskanian and later 
Kocharian that "We're not in the business of picking winners 
and losers." 
 
--------------------------------------- 
TROUBLED ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI RELATIONS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Oskanian said that despite current heightened 
difficulties in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations there was no 
unusual tension along the line of conflict.  Noting that the 
planned Prague meeting of Foreign Ministers had just been 
postponed, Oskanian said that he and Kocharian were already 
looking forward to a possible Kocharian-Aliyev meeting in 
Warsaw at the upcoming EU economic conference.  Kocharian 
subsequently commented that he can "discuss everything with 
(Aliyev) but that doesn't mean that we can work together." 
He added that he's not sure Aliyev is ready to "take any step 
forward," owing to his domestic political situation or his 
own inexperience -- or both.  Kocharian also described what 
he sees as a fundamental "ethnic incompatibility" between the 
Armenians and the Azerbaijanis, referring repeatedly to what 
he called a "cultural chasm" between Christianity and Islam. 
Kocharian insisted, "I don't believe that European-style 
democracy is suitable for Azerbaijan:  the more money from 
oil (they get), the less willing they will be to integrate 
into European structures."  Kocharian maintained that the 
elder Aliyev understood these basic differences very well. 
Kocharian even quoted Aliyev as saying that "We have to 
separate from each other.  Maybe someday we could be good 
neighbors."  Referring to what he called Haydar Aliyev's 
sense of "historic responsibility" to solve the 
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Kocharian concluded that his 
impression of "Ilham is that he doesn't have the internal 
motivation to solve it." 
 
-------------------------------- 
RUSSIA:  COMPLEMENTARITY THE KEY 
-------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Good relations with Russia are crucial, but Oskanian 
noted that Armenia is willing to also expand its cooperation 
with NATO, and Kocharian pointed out that "We don't want to 
gain from the contradiction with you and Russia.  We want to 
gain from the cooperation between you -- and we can." 
Kocharian noted that the Russians could play a positive role 
in Ajara and agreed that "we have to keep things stable in 
Georgia."  Kocharian went on to say that he believes 
President Putin "understands (the need for a stable situation 
in Georgia) very well and ... things have calmed down in 
Ajara because of Putin."  When the Deputy Secretary suggested 
that Putin had been pleasantly surprised about Saakashvili, 
Kocharian agreed, saying "Putin told me the same thing.  It's 
important to reach agreement (in Ajara) and then enforce the 
agreement." 
----------------------------- 
GEORGIA:  ESSENTIAL LIFE-LINE 
----------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Oskanian pointed out how crucial stability in Georgia 
is for Armenia.  (Note:  The vast majority of energy and 
other essential goods that Armenia imports transit through 
Georgia.  End Note.)  Kocharian added that the GOAM had kept 
in contact with Georgia throughout the crisis in Ajara, 
although they hadn't "advertised" it, and cited military, 
presidential and diplomatic contacts at all levels.  He also 
noted that Minister of Defense Sargsian will be in Tbilisi 
April 1 to consult with his colleagues there.  Both Oskanian 
and Kocharian noted that Armenia and Georgia share 
fundamental values such as Christianity which further 
strengthened their relationship. 
 
------------------------- 
TURKEY:  AZERBAIJANI TOOL 
------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Citing GOAM disappointment with the lack of progress 
in the relationship with Turkey, Oskanian noted that 
Kocharian would not be attending the upcoming Istanbul Summit 
in Turkey.  The most recent two of his three meetings with 
Turkish FM Gul had not gone well, Oskanian said.  It appeared 
to him that Turkey had hardened its position that its border 
with Armenia would remain closed until the N-K conflict had 
been resolved.  Kocharian went further, lambasting the 
Turkish government for letting itself be used as a "tool" for 
Azerbaijan.  He added that Turkey was incapable of 
"pragmatism" when it came to Armenia and that Turkey was "too 
emotional" to work together with Armenia to improve 
relations.  Kocharian concluded that "We are ready to discuss 
relations, to negotiate everything without preconditions: 
this is not easy for an Armenian president!" 
 
-------------------------------------- 
IRAN:  GAS PIPELINE ON EVERYONE'S MIND 
-------------------------------------- 
 
8. (C) Oskanian assured the Deputy Secretary that an 
effective export control regime is firmly in place vis-a-vis 
Iran, and emphasized that the "gas pipeline is becoming a 
reality."  Oskanian further outlined a scenario in which the 
paperwork for the Iran-Armenian Pipeline would be completed 
early this year, construction would begin in 2004, and gas 
would flow in 2006.  Kocharian agreed with Oskanian that the 
pipeline is just around the corner, noting that the "most 
efficient cooperation (Armenia has) with Iran is in the field 
of energy," specifically on the pipeline.  Kocharian noted, 
however, that Armenia still needed to look for funding for 
its portion of the pipeline.  Options include asking the EU 
for the money, funding the project out of the state budget, 
or negotiating  with Russian energy giant Gazprom for 
possible financing.  (Note:  Embassy doubts that any of these 
options is viable at this time.  End Note.)  Kocharian also 
mentioned that Iran is ready to loan Armenia the necessary 
funding, but wryly acknowledged that Armenia had never 
"received a cent from Iran" in the past. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
MILITARY COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. AND NATO TO INCREASE 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
9. (C) Noting that Armenia's special relationship with Russia 
does not preclude increased cooperation with NATO (see 
above), Oskanian highlighted Armenia's readiness to move to 
an IPAP with NATO, its intention to upgrade its 
representation to NATO, and its willingness to undertake a 
defense assessment.  Oskanian repeated GOAM concern about the 
lack of FMF parity with Azerbaijan in the proposed USG 
assistance budget and asked, "What can we do for projects to 
get the FMF amounts to parity?"  Oskanian then suggested 
establishing a program to train and equip a company-sized 
peacekeeping force (to be deployed under UN Chapter 6). The 
Deputy Secretary promised to bring this new proposal to 
Washington for consideration.  Kocharian also underscored his 
desire for increased military cooperation, saying that the 
only limitations would be that the U.S. could not use those 
bases where Russians were currently stationed.  Kocharian 
emphasized that, "Our relationship with Russia is very good 
but it's not a relationship where they can dictate things to 
us." 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
10. (C) Both Kocharian and Oskanian clearly appreciated the 
Deputy Secretary's commitment to pay more attention to our 
relationships in the region and to Armenia in particular. 
The warmth and candor which characterized the meetings 
suggest that Armenia is eager to deepen its relationship with 
the USG.  The GOAM will be watching closely to see if U.S. 
attention flags, and will remain strongly aware that, as 
Kocharian noted, "the U.S. is far away, but it is everywhere." 
ORDWAY