US embassy cable - 04PANAMA810

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PANAMA 000810 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PM, LABOR, HUMAN RIGHTS,POLMIL 
SUBJECT: PANAMA'S ELECTION CAMPAIGN: ALEMAN MAY BE COUNTING 
ON THE AZUERO, BUT IT IS NOT MUCH TO COUNT 
 
 
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Summary 
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1. (U) PolOffs recently toured Panama's Herrera and Los 
Santos provinces, meeting with Herrera's Electoral Tribunal 
Regional Director Hector Paulette, Arnulfista Party 
legislative challenger Pacifico Escalona and Revolutionary 
Democratic Party (PRD) Herrera elections coordinator Reynaldo 
Salerno.  Panamanian President Mireya Moscoso, native 
daughter of Pedasi, Los Santos, has spent nearly every 
weekend during her term in the region, making it an even 
greater Arnulfista stronghold than before.  Arnulfista 
legislative candidates should win at least three seats out of 
the two provinces' six.  If Arnulfista legislative candidates 
do well in the May 2 general elections, Arnulfista 
presidential candidate Jose Miguel Aleman could eke out a win 
in the Azuero.  Many voters will vote Arnulfista for 
legislature but could choose PRD presidential candidate 
Martin Torrijos for president. 
 
 
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Background 
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2. (U) Among Panama's smallest provinces, Herrera and Los 
Santos (on the country's southwestern Azuero peninsula), only 
account for 4.0% and 3.5% of the national electorate, 
respectively.  In this rugged, cattle ranching part of the 
country, Panama's Liberal parties (in the European sense) 
have traditionally won at the polls.  These include the 
Arnulfista Party and the National Liberal Republican Movement 
(MOLIRENA).  Speaking with local Latino farmers, an observer 
notes continued animosity toward deceased dictator General 
Omar Torrijos' long-past, heavy-handed policies.  His 
Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) is popular only in 
isolated pockets.  In 1999, Panamanian President Mireya 
Moscoso, native daughter of Pedasi, Los Santos, won the 
Azuero by a whopping 11,248 votes, running against native son 
PRD presidential candidate (then and now) Martin Torrijos 
from Chitre, Herrera.  Three of the region's legislators are 
Arnulfistas; two are PRD; and one is from the Solidarity 
Party.  Each province has three legislators. 
 
 
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Reverse Coattails 
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3. (SBU) PolOffs met with Arnulfista legislative challenger 
Pacifico Escalona (former Governor of Herrera and brother of 
Minister of Government and Justice (MOGJ) Arnulfo Escalona), 
who is running against Solidarity legislative incumbent 
Alberto Magno Castillero.  According to Menalco Solis, 
campaign manager for Solidarity's presidential candidate 
Guillermo Endara, Castillero is popular in the circuit, and 
Solidarity is counting on him to win.  However, the 
Arnulfistas' Escalona is carpet bombing the circuit with 
posters on every electric pole and radio advertisements 
averaging every few minutes.  He claimed that his internal 
polls show him way ahead Castillero.  Admittedly, Escalona 
appears strong, particularly with the 18-30 age group, which 
accounts for about 50% of the Azuero vote, according to 
Herrera's Electoral Tribunal Regional Director Hector 
Paulette. 
 
 
4. (SBU) PRD Herrera elections coordinator Reynaldo Salerno 
reluctantly agreed with Escalona's confident assessment. 
According to both Arnulfista and PRD contacts, Arnulfista 
legislative candidates Escalona, Jose Luis "Popi" Varela and 
Carlos Afu are sure to win.  Escalona and Salerno also agreed 
that one PRD candidate is a shoo-in.  A fourth Arnulfista is 
a favorite for the region's fifth slot, and a coalition 
partner MOLIRENA challenger is in a close race for the sixth. 
 Torrijos plans to fight back in the Azuero with several 
scheduled visits in the campaign's remaining month, including 
a closing campaign rally. 
 
 
5. (SBU) Arnulfista presidential hopeful Jose Miguel Aleman, 
according to his campaign manager Carlos Raul Piad, is 
counting on an apparent legislative "full house" to sweep him 
to victory in Herrera and Los Santos, where the electorate 
traditionally votes for the entire party slate.  However, 
Aleman's registered party base (his floor) only accounts for 
about 20% of the Herrera electorate and 25% of the Los Santos 
electorate, slightly below the PRD's registered party base. 
Three of the Arnulfista legislative candidates have no 
political allegiance to Aleman (much less personal or 
professional scruples) and are not pushing supporters to vote 
for the top of their ticket.  Panamanian President Mireya 
Moscoso has a personal stake in two of the Arnulfistas and 
has spent political capital on the third; however, her 
support for Aleman has been ineffective thus far.  Many 
independent voters (about half of the Azuero electorate) are 
expected to vote Arnulfista for legislature but then vote 
Torrijos (or no one at all) for president. 
 
 
 
 
MCMULLEN