US embassy cable - 04ISTANBUL530

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000530 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
 
E.O 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, KPAO, KDEM, KMPI, XF, TU, Istanbul 
SUBJECT: GREATER MIDDLE EAST INITIATIVE:  YOUNG 
TURKISH FOREIGN-POLICY ACADEMICS SKEPTICAL NOT OF 
U.S. MOTIVES BUT OF SUCCESS 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: AMBASSADOR EDELMAN'S MEETING 
WITH A GROUP OF ISTANBUL ACADEMICS PROVIDED AN 
OPPORTUNITY TO GAUGE REACTIONS OF INFORMED 
INTERLOCUTORS TO THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST 
INITIATIVE.  SEVERAL WARNED OF UNINTENDED 
CONSEQUENCES, AND OTHERS WONDERED IF THE PROPOSED 
COMMITMENT COULD BE SUSTAINED.  NOTABLE FOR THEIR 
ABSENCE WERE EXPRESSIONS OF MORAL INDIGNATION 
ABOUT THE ARAB/ISRAELI PROBLEM AND SUSPICIONS OF 
U.S. MOTIVES IN WANTING TO TRANSFORM THE GREATER 
MIDDLE EAST.  "GOOD LUCK!" THEY SAID, IN EFFECT. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
 
2. (SBU) AT A FEBRUARY 27 BREAKFAST HOSTED BY THE 
CONSUL GENERAL, SIX RISING STARS OF TURKISH 
UNIVERSITY FOREIGN-POLICY/INTERNATIONAL-RELATIONS 
FACULTIES MET WITH AMBASSADOR EDELMAN, WHO 
SKETCHED OUT FOR THEM THE GENESIS OF THE GREATER 
MIDDLE EAST INTIATIVE AND INVITED THEIR REACTIONS. 
 
 
3. (SBU) HAKAN YILMAZ (BOGAZICI UNIVERSITY; PH.D 
IN POLITICAL SCIENCE, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY, 1996) 
RECALLED THE ANNULMENT OF ALGERIA'S ELECTIONS AND 
THE SUBSEQUENT BLOODSHED IN ASKING THE RHETORICAL 
QUESTION: "IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT'S IN THE BOX, DO 
YOU WANT TO OPEN IT?"  THERE IS NO RELIABLE 
OPINION POLLING IN THE ARAB WORLD, HE SAID.  THE 
RESULTS OF ELECTIONS MIGHT NOT BE TO THE U.S.'S 
LIKING.  THAT SAID, IT IS MORALLY A GOOD THING TO 
TRY TO BRING DEMOCRACY TO THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST. 
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE IN THE WEST (NOTE: HE 
INCLUDED TURKEY.  END NOTE.) HAVE THE WILL, THE 
MONEY, AND THE STAYING POWER FOR THE "SOCIAL 
ENGINEERING" THAT WOULD BE REQUIRED.  AN OSCE-TYPE 
ORGANIZATION FOR THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST MIGHT 
HELP, BUT EXPERIENCE IS NOT ENCOURAGING; NOTHING 
HAS COME OF SIMILAR EFFORTS BEFORE, BE THEY IN SUB- 
SAHARAN AFRICA OR THE ARAB WORLD ITSELF. 
 
 
4.  (SBU) GUL SOSAY (BOGAZICI UNIVERSIY; PH.D. IN 
POLITICAL SCIENCE, OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY, 1999) 
COMMENTED THAT "DEMOCRACY" - I.E. A SYSTEM FOR 
ELECTING OFFICEHOLDERS - IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO 
TRANSFORM THE GME COUNTRIES INTO HAPPIER PLACES. 
THEY NEED JOBS, EDUCATION, AND INFRASTRUCTURE. 
HOW IS THE U.S. GOING TO IMPLANT DEMOCRATIC 
VALUES/SYSTEMS IN SOCIETIES BEREFT OF THEM? 
EVIDENTLY, IRAQIS COULD NOT BE MADE TO APPRECIATE 
THE VALUE OF "CAUCUSES."  ONE CAN PRAISE AND 
PROMOTE GRASS-ROOTS INSTITUTIONS AND NGO'S, BUT 
HOW DOES ONE FOSTER THEM AMONG PEOPLE WHO ARE 
CONDITIONED BY DECADES, IF NOT CENTURIES, OF 
LOOKING ONLY TO THE STATE FOR SOLUTIONS?  IF THE 
U.S. IS SERIOUS ABOUT BRINGING LITERACY, ECONOMIC 
DEVELOPMENT, GOOD GOVERNANCE, ETC. TO THE REGION, 
WHAT ROLE IN THAT EFFORT DOES IT ENVISION FOR THE 
UNITED NATIONS? 
 
 
5. (SBU) UMUT OZKIRIMLI (ISTANBUL BILGI 
UNIVERSITY;  PH.D IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 
ISTANBUL UNIVERSITY, 1998) ASKED HOW THE GREATER 
MIDDLE EAST INITIATIVE WOULD TAKE ACCOUNT OF 
LATENT AND WIDESPREAD ANTI-AMERICANISM, ESPECIALLY 
IF DEMOCRATIC REFORMS BRING ANTI-AMERICAN ELEMENTS 
TO POWER?  HAS THE U.S. WEIGHED THE CHANCES OF 
SUCH AN OUTCOME?  WHY WILL THE U.S.'S CLAIM TO BE 
HELPING THESE COUNTRIES BE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE, 
RATHER THAN VIEWED WITH SUSPICION?  SOME EUROPEAN 
INTELLECTUALS NOW EVEN TALK OF "DEMOCRATIC 
COLONIALISM." 
 
 
6. (SBU) AHMET HAN (ISTANBUL BILGI UNIVERSITY; 
PH.D, ISTANBUL UNIVERSITY, 2001) EXPRESSED CONCERN 
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST 
INITIATIVE TO UNLEASH IRREDENTISM. IF YOU BRING 
DEMOCRACY, YOU WILL INVITE PEOPLE TO QUESTION 
THEIR COMMITMENT TO CURRENT BORDERS OF NATION- 
STATES; HE SPECIFICALLY CITED JORDAN AND KUWAIT. 
HE ALSO OPINED THAT AMERICANS' PSYCHOLOGY 
TRADITIONALLY UNDERESTIMATES THE SALIENCE OF 
HISTORICAL GRIEVANCES.  HE ILLUSTRATED HIS POINT 
WITH AN ANALOGY: GIVE A SURPRISE "INFUSION" OF 
$100 TO A COUPLE OF AMERICANS; TO THE AMERICANS, 
ALMOST ANY DIVISION OF IT WILL BE CONSIDERED 
ACCEPTABLE, BECAUSE BOTH PARTIES WILL BE GETTING A 
NET BENEFIT.  IN THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST, HOWEVER, 
RECIPIENTS WILL PRIMARILY CONSIDER THEIR FEELINGS 
ABOUT THE OTHER RECIPIENT IN DECIDING WHAT IS FAIR 
AND THUS ACCEPTABLE. 
 
 
7. (SBU) BULENT ARAS (FATIH UNIVERSITY; PH.D, 
BOGAZICI UNIVERSITY, 1998) ALSO SPOKE OF THE 
POSSIBILITY OF BORDER DISPUTES ERUPTING AS A 
CONSEQUENCE OF DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE GREATER 
MIDDLE EAST.  IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHAT PEOPLE 
THINK, DON'T BE OBSESSED WITH POLLS; GO TO THE 
MOSQUES.  (NOTE: FATIH IS AN ISLAMIST-ORIENTED 
UNIVERSITY.  END NOTE.)  IT IS HARD TO APPEAR 
CONSISTENT, AND THEREBY AVOID THE ACCUSATION OF 
DOUBLE STANDARDS, WHEN CHOOSING BETWEEN SECURITY 
AND DEMOCRACY.  IF YOU REALLY WANT SECURITY, YOU 
WILL ULTIMATELY LET KARIMOV DO WHAT HE WANTS IN 
UZBEKISTAN.  IF YOU REALLY WANT DEMOCRACY, YOU 
WILL SUPPORT DISSIDENTS ONLY TO FIND THAT THEIR 
EFFECTIVENESS DIMINISHES IN PROPORTION TO THEIR 
IDENTIFICATION WITH THE U.S.  "YOU SHOULD HAVE 
LEFT SAAD EDDIN IBRAHIM IN JAIL A LITTLE WHILE 
LONGER," HE QUIPPED, REFERRING TO THE CASE OF THE 
EGYPTIAN-AMERICAN SCHOLAR. 
 
 
8. (SBU) IN RESPONDING TO THESE AND OTHER 
OBSERVATIONS MADE BY THE TURKISH ACADEMICS, THE 
AMBASSADOR HIGHLIGHTED SEVERAL THEMES.  FOR A 
VARIETY OF REASONS, GME COUNTRIES WERE FOR A LONG 
TIME NOT HELD TO THE SAME STANDARDS OF DEMOCRACY 
AND GOOD GOVERNANCE.  THIS HAS NOW CHANGED.  IN 
THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST, WE ALL DIAGNOSE THE SAME 
PROBLEMS; TO DO NOTHING ABOUT THEM IS NOT AN 
OPTION.  AMERICANS ARE NOT GOING TO BE DISSUADED 
BY THE "PROBLEMATIC" NATURE OF THE INITIATIVE.  WE 
ARE NOT ATTEMPTING TO IMPOSE ANYTHING ON THE 
REGION. THERE IS NO DETAILED BLUEPRINT FOR THE 
INITIATIVE.  RATHER, THERE IS A COMMITMENT TO 
FINDING WAYS AND MEANS TO HELP WHERE WE CAN BY 
CREATING AN INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE 
TO, AND SUPPORTIVE OF, CHANGE EMANATING FROM THE 
REGION.  IN ORDER TO DO THAT, WE NEED TO ADAPT 
EXISTING INSTRUMENTS TO SUPPORT DEMOCRATIC REFORM 
AND DEVELOP NEW ONES. THE AMBASSADOR RECOUNTED AN 
ANECDOTE FROM AN ARAB AMBASSADOR IN ANKARA, WHO 
WAS LISTENING TO A HARANGUE ABOUT U.S. MEDDLING IN 
THE REGION WHEN HE INTERRUPTED TO ASK: ARE WE 
HAPPY WITH THE STATE OF AFFAIRS IN OUR COUNTRIES, 
WITH OUR EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS, OUR ECONOMIES, OUR 
HEALTH-CARE SYSTEMS?  IF SOMEBODY IS OFFERING TO 
HELP US, SHOULDN'T WE BE GRATEFUL FOR THE OFFER? 
 
 
9.  (SBU) COMMENT: A HESITANT, QUIZZICAL AND 
SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL REACTION BY TURKISH ACADEMICS 
TO THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST INITIATIVE IS TO BE 
EXPECTED.  IT IS PARALLELED IN THE TURKISH MEDIA. 
THIS IS PARTLY BECAUSE THE GME INITIATIVE HAS NOT 
YET BEEN DEFINED IN DETAIL.  WE SAW SOMETHING 
SIMILAR AT AN EARLIER MEETING BETWEEN THE 
AMBASSADOR AND ELEVEN REPRESENTATIVES FROM 
PROMINENT ISTANBUL-BASED NGOS.  AFTER THE 
AMBASSADOR HAD EXPLAINED THE ADMINISTRATION'S 
THINKING BEHIND THE GME INITIATIVE, HE WAS MET BY 
AN INITIAL SILENCE THAT SEEMED TO UNDERSCORE THE 
REPRESENTATIVES' HESITATION TO ENGAGE ON THE 
TOPIC.  HOWEVER, THEY SOON WARMED UP TO IT.  WHAT 
IS WORTH NOTING IS THAT AMONG TURKISH FOREIGN 
POLICY THINKERS THE GME INITIATIVE IS NOT 
REFLEXIVELY VIEWED IN KNEE-JERK FASHION AS SOME 
KIND OF PLOY DESIGNED TO SIDETRACK THE ARAB- 
ISRAELI DISPUTE OR INFILTRATE FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS. 
THE FOCUS IS ON SECURING TURKEY'S INTERESTS - NOT 
THE INTERESTS OF ARABS OR THE INTERESTS OF 
FUNDAMENTALIST MUSLIMS. END COMMENT. 
MINIMIZE CONSIDERED 
ARNETT