US embassy cable - 01HARARE975

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000975 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00975  01 OF 03  120948Z 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KDEM, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION RACE DOWN TO 
TWO RUNNERS 
 
REFS: A) HARARE 969, B) HARARE 871, C) HARARE 847 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING FOR REASONS: 
1.5 (B) AND (D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY: ZIMBABWE'S PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION RACE 
HAS NARROWED TO TWO PEOPLE SHOULD PRESIDENT ROBERT 
MUGABE DECIDE NOT TO RUN FOR REELECTION IN THE EARLY 
2002 RACE.  SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA IS 
IN THE STRONGEST POSITION TO TAKE OVER THE COUNTRY'S 
REINS, WITH HIS VERY CLOSE TIES TO THE PRESIDENT AND THE 
PARTY'S "OLD GUARD," ACCORDING TO OUR CONTACTS.  FINANCE 
MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI IS IN SECOND PLACE IN THE 
SUCCESSION RACE, AND HIS LACK OF STRONG TIES TO ANY ONE 
FACTION AND HIS APPEAL AMONG ZIMBABWE'S SMALL BUT 
INFLUENTIAL MIDDLE CLASS, MAKE HIM A STRONG CONTENDER 
AMONG THE PARTY'S MODERATES.  THE PRESIDENTIAL HOPES OF 
OTHER AMBITIOUS LEADERS, SUCH AS LOCAL GOVERNMENT 
MINISTER IGNATIUS CHOMBO AND HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER JOHN 
NKOMO, ARE FADING FAST AS THEY FAIL TO MAKE THEMSELVES 
KNOWN TO THE ELECTORATE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) POLOFF SPOKE TO MASIPULA SITHOLE, A POLITICAL 
SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  00975  01 OF 03  120948Z 
INFLUENTIAL COLUMNIST, AND DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF 
PUBLIC OPINION, ON MARCH 6 ABOUT THE SUCCESSION STRUGGLE 
IN ZANU-PF.  POLOFF ALSO INTERVIEWED IDEN WETHERELL, 
EDITOR OF "THE ZIMBABWE INDEPENDENT" NEWSPAPER ON MARCH 
7 ON THE SAME SUBJECT.  ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS PRESIDENT 
MUGABE HAS EVERY INTENTION OF RUNNING AGAIN IN EARLY 
2002, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HE MAY ANOINT A 
SUCCESSOR IF HE DETERMINES BY YEAR'S END THAT HE CANNOT 
WIN REELECTION, RATHER THAN RISK AN OPPOSITION VICTORY. 
MORE LIKELY, HOWEVER, MUGABE WILL RESIGN MIDWAY THROUGH 
A FINAL TERM AND HAND THE REINS TO A SUCCESSOR AT THAT 
POINT.  THIS MESSAGE EXAMINES WHO HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT 
THIS POINT OF BECOMING THAT SUCCESSOR. 
 
MNANGAGWA LEADS THE PACK 
------------------------ 
 
3.  (C) SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA IS IN 
THE STRONGEST POSITION TO SUCCEED PRESIDENT MUGABE, THE 
CONTACTS WE TALKED TO AGREED.  SITHOLE CALLED MNANGAGWA 
"THE PRINCE'S FAVORITE" BECAUSE OF THEIR LONG-TIME AND 
VERY CLOSE TIES.  (SITHOLE CALLS MUGABE "THE PRINCE" 
BECAUSE THE PRESIDENT READS THE MACHIAVELLI WORK OVER 
AND OVER AGAIN, THE PROFESSOR MUSED.)  SITHOLE RECOUNTED 
MNANGAGWA'S DAYS WORKING WITH MUGABE DURING THE 
LIBERATION STRUGGLE WHILE IN EXILE IN THE LATE 1970S. 
AS MUGABE'S CHIEF OF SECURITY, MNANGAGWA PROVIDED 
INFORMATION TO MUGABE ON THE ACTIVITIES OF HIS RIVALS IN 
THE LIBERATION MOVEMENT.  MNANGAGWA'S REPORTS LED MUGABE 
TO IMPRISON A NUMBER OF MOVEMENT POLITICIANS, INCLUDING 
KUMBIRAI KANGAI (FORMER AGRICULTURE MINISTER) AND RUGARE 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  00975  01 OF 03  120948Z 
GUMBO (CURRENT DEPUTY MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS), EVEN 
BEFORE INDEPENDENCE, SITHOLE SAID.  MNANGAGWA LIKELY HAD 
A HAND IN THE DECEMBER 1979 DEATH OF JOSIAH TONGOGARA, 
MUGABE'S PRINCIPAL RIVAL FOR CONTROL OF THE ZANU 
MOVEMENT AT THE TIME, THE PROFESSOR STATED.  AFTER 
INDEPENDENCE IN 1980, MNANGAGWA, AS MUGABE'S NEW 
MINISTER FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AND OVERSEER OF THE 
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION, PUT SPIES ON 
VIRTUALLY EVERY PROMINENT FIGURE IN ZANU, WHICH 
STRENGTHENED MUGABE'S HOLD ON THE PARTY IMMEASURABLY. 
 
4.  (C) MNANGAGWA'S POSITION AS MUGABE'S "FAVORITE" 
COULD ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE LIABILITY FOR MNANGAGWA, 
SITHOLE ARGUED.  MUGABE IS NOT WELL LIKED IN THE PARTY, 
AND MNANGAGWA'S VERY CLOSE ASSOCIATION WITH HIM DOES NOT 
IMPROVE MNANGAGWA'S ALREADY VERY LOW POPULARITY RATINGS. 
IF THE PARTY HAD HAD ANYTHING TO SAY ABOUT MNANGAGWA'S 
ELECTION AS SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT IN AUGUST 2000, THE 
SPEAKER WOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN PUT FORWARD AS A 
CANDIDATE, THE COLUMNIST SURMISED.  HE IS SPEAKER 
BECAUSE MUGABE WANTED IT THAT WAY.  ZANU-PF WOULD NEVER 
VOLUNTARILY NOMINATE MNANGAGWA AS ITS CANDIDATE FOR 
PRESIDENT, EITHER; IT WOULD ONLY DO SO IF MUGABE IMPOSED 
HIS CANDIDACY, SITHOLE CONCLUDED. 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ0302 
 
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ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   DINT-00 
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
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      VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    STR-00 
      TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00 
      NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W 
                  ------------------D058CE  120948Z /38 
P 120946Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8393 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000975 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00975  02 OF 03  120948Z 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KDEM, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION RACE DOWN TO 
TWO RUNNERS 
 
5.  (C) "THE INDEPENDENT" EDITOR WETHERELL DESCRIBED 
MNANGAGWA AS A "NIMBLE OPERATOR," AND "ONE OF THE MOST 
INTELLIGENT MEN IN GOVERNMENT," WHICH MAKES HIM ALL THE 
MORE DANGEROUS.  THE SPEAKER ALSO HAS A VERY ASTUTE 
UNDERSTANDING OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS' AGENDAS AND GLOBAL 
ISSUES, AND KNOWS ALL THE RIGHT THINGS TO SAY ON HUMAN 
RIGHTS AND OTHER WESTERN CONCERNS.  HE IS GOOD AT 
"PLAYING TO ALL GALLERIES," THE EDITOR REMARKED. 
NONETHELESS, MNANGAGWA IS NOT WELL-LIKED IN THE PARTY, 
OR THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE -- HIS FAILED BID TO BECOME 
ZANU-PF NATIONAL CHAIRMAN IN DECEMBER 1999 AND HIS 
RESOUNDING LOSS OF HIS KWEKWE PARLIAMENTARY SEAT LAST 
JUNE ARE AMPLE EVIDENCE OF THIS, WETHERELL STATED. 
MNANGAGWA WOULD BE MORE OF A LIABILITY TO ZANU-PF THAN 
MUGABE SHOULD THE SPEAKER BECOME THE PARTY'S 
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, WETHERELL OPINED. 
 
6.  (C) IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MARCH 2-8 EDITION OF 
THE GOVERNMENT-INFLUENCED "THE MIRROR" REPORTED THAT THE 
PROVINCIAL RESTRUCTURING EFFORT CURRENTLY UNDERWAY IN 
ZANU-PF (REF B) IS DESIGNED TO PUT IN LOCAL LEADERS WHO 
CAN EFFECTIVELY "MARKET" MNANGAGWA AS A PRESIDENTIAL 
CANDIDATE TO THE MASSES.  THE ARTICLE ALSO REPORTED THAT 
THE SYSTEMATIC SIDELINING IN ZANU-PF OF MASVINGO LEADER 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  00975  02 OF 03  120948Z 
AND MNANGAGWA RIVAL EDDISON ZVOBGO (REF C) IS SUPPOSED 
TO CLEAR THE WAY FOR A MNANGAGWA PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACY. 
ZVOBGO WAS REPORTED TO HAVE LED THE EFFORT TO THWART 
MNANGAGWA'S BID TO BECOME ZANU-PF'S NATIONAL CHAIRMAN IN 
DECEMBER 1999, AND IS BEING SIDELINED AS PUNISHMENT AND 
TO ENSURE HE DOES NOT PRESENT AN OBSTACLE TO MNANGAGWA'S 
ASCENDANCY.  MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI TOLD 
VISITING DAS MARK BELLAMY ON MARCH 9 (REF A) THAT 
MNANGAGWA IS THE ONLY ZANU-PF CANDIDATE WITH THE CLOUT 
TO SUCCEED MUGABE.  "THE MDC WOULD WELCOME HIS 
CANDIDACY," THE OPPOSITION LEADER VOLUNTEERED, REFERRING 
TO THE SPEAKER'S LOW POPULARITY AND REPUTATION FOR 
TRUCULENCE. 
 
MAKONI IS IN SECOND PLACE 
------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) FINANCE MINISTER SIMBA MAKONI WOULD BE ZANU-PF'S 
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IF THE PARTY HAD ANY SAY IN THE 
MATTER, ACCORDING TO SITHOLE.  MAKONI'S STRENGTH IS THAT 
HE DOES NOT HAVE ANY STRONG TIES TO ANY PARTICULAR 
FACTION IN ZANU-PF, WHICH MAKES HIM AN IDEAL CANDIDATE 
ON WHOM EVERYONE CAN AGREE, THE PROFESSOR OPINED.  IN 
ADDITION, MAKONI APPEALS TO ZIMBABWE'S RELATIVELY SMALL 
BUT INFLUENTIAL MIDDLE CLASS THAT DOMINATES THE URBAN 
AREAS.  SITHOLE BELIEVES THAT MAKONI IS MAKING AN 
IMPRESSION ON THE ZANU-PF MEMBERSHIP BECAUSE HE IS 
PERSUASIVE, KNOWLEDGEABLE ON WIDE VARIETY OF ISSUES, AND 
LOOKS LIKE SOMEONE WHO COULD HAVE A VISION FOR THE 
COUNTRY.  (NOTE: WHEN PRESSED, SITHOLE DID NOT KNOW WHAT 
THAT VISION MIGHT BE, HOWEVER.  END NOTE.)  MAKONI IS 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  00975  02 OF 03  120948Z 
ALSO SMART ENOUGH TO CULTIVATE A CORDIAL RELATIONSHIP 
WITH THE MDC.  HE COULD BE A MINISTER OF FINANCE UNDER 
AN MDC-LED GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY, SHOULD THE MDC 
WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, SITHOLE PREDICTED. 
 
8.  (C) WETHERELL WAS LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MAKONI'S 
PROSPECTS.  HE STATED THAT MNANGAGWA WOULD HAVE TO BE 
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE PICTURE IN ORDER FOR MAKONI TO 
HAVE ANY SHOT AT THE PRESIDENCY.  MAKONI HAS NO POWER 
BASE OF HIS OWN, AND IS A PRODUCT OF THE ZANU-PF SYSTEM 
OF "BARONIAL FIEFDOMS," WETHERELL COMMENTED.  MAKONI 
TRIED TO ESTABLISH HIS OWN BASE IN MANICALAND IN RECENT 
YEARS, BUT FAILED.  DESPITE HIS SHORTCOMINGS, MANY IN 
THE PARTY SEE HIM AS THEIR "GREAT BLACK HOPE."  HE HAS 
AN EXCELLENT GRASP OF ECONOMICS AND POLICYMAKING AND HAS 
THE ABILITY TO LEAD THE COUNTRY OUT OF ECONOMIC RUIN, 
THE EDITOR OFFERED.  A NUMBER OF ZANU-PF'S EMERGING 
YOUNG POWER BARONS, SUCH AS CHINHOYI MP PHILLIP 
CHIYANGWA AND MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH MP TYSON KASUKUWERE, 
ARE WITHHOLDING THEIR SUPPORT FOR MAKONI BECAUSE THEY 
ARE AFRAID TO BACK THE WRONG HORSE.  THEY ARE MORE 
INTERESTED IN SELF-ENRICHMENT, ANYWAY, AND MAKONI'S 
REFORM POLICIES COULD JEOPARDIZE THEIR SUBSTANTIAL 
BUSINESS LINKAGES TO ZANU-PF, ACCORDING TO WETHERELL. 
IN REF A MEETING, MORGAN TSVANGIRAI DISMISSED MAKONI'S 
 
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                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ0305 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00975  03 OF 03  120948Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00   DINT-00 
      DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00   FAAE-00 
      FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    DCP-01   NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00    STR-00 
      TRSE-00  USIE-00  PMB-00   DSCC-00  PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00 
      NFAT-00  SAS-00     /010W 
                  ------------------D058DE  120948Z /38 
P 120946Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8394 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000975 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
 
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY 
 
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS 
 
NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER 
 
PASS USAID FOR AFR/SA C. PALMA 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00975  03 OF 03  120948Z 
PASS USTR FOR ROSA WHITAKER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, KDEM, ZI 
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION RACE DOWN TO 
TWO RUNNERS 
 
CANDIDACY, NOTING, "HE COULD NEVER CONTROL THE ZANU-PF 
HARDLINERS."  MASVINGO ZANU-PF "SUPREMO" ZVOBGO, ON THE 
OTHER HAND, IMPLIED HIS SUPPORT OF MAKONI TO US, SAYING 
THAT MANY WOULD THROW THEIR WEIGHT BEHIND HIM BECAUSE OF 
HIS POPULAR APPEAL. 
 
OTHER CONTENDERS FALLING FAR BEHIND 
----------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) THE PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS OF MINISTER OF LOCAL 
GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC WORKS AND NATIONAL HOUSING IGNATIUS 
CHOMBO ARE FADING FAST, BOTH SITHOLE AND WETHERELL 
AGREED.  ALTHOUGH SOME THINK HE IS PRESIDENTIAL 
MATERIAL, CHOMBO IS TOO CLOSE TO MUGABE TO HAVE HIS OWN 
SUPPORT BASE, SITHOLE OPINED.  IN FACT, CHOMBO IS A 
DISTANT COUSIN OF MUGABE AND CAME FROM THE SAME VILLAGE 
IN ZVIMBA DISTRICT AS THE PRESIDENT, THE PROFESSOR 
ASSERTED.  WETHERELL DESCRIBED CHOMBO AS THE PRESIDENT'S 
"BLUE-EYED BOY," BUT NOT AS PARTICULARLY BRIGHT OR 
POLITICALLY ASTUTE.  ZANU-PF NATIONAL CHAIRMAN JOHN 
NKOMO, WHO COMPLETELY LACKS ANY CHARISMA, LOST HIS 
CHANCE FOR THE PRESIDENCY WHEN HE FAILED TO WIN A 
PARLIAMENTARY SEAT LAST JUNE, THE EDITOR REMARKED. 
FURTHERMORE, NKOMO HAS FAILED TO MAKE A NAME FOR HIMSELF 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  00975  03 OF 03  120948Z 
AMONG ZIMBABWEAN VOTERS, WETHERELL CONCLUDED. 
 
10.  (C) BOTH INTERLOCUTORS AGREED THAT MINISTER FOR 
INFORMATION AND PUBLICITY JONATHAN MOYO IS DESPISED IN 
ZANU-PF AND WILL NEVER BE ANYTHING MORE THAN "PRESIDENT 
MUGABE'S MAN."  IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT MOYO COULD BECOME 
A PRIME MINISTER UNDER A FINAL MUGABE TERM AND AMENDED 
CONSTITUTION, BUT AS SOON AS MUGABE GOES, SO WILL MOYO, 
WETHERELL BELIEVES.  MOYO IS ONE OF THE MOST HATED 
FIGURES IN THE COUNTRY RIGHT NOW AND NO ONE OTHER THAN 
MUGABE WILL BACK HIM. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
11.  (C) IT APPEARS THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION 
RACE IS NARROWING TO TWO PEOPLE: MNANGAGWA AND MAKONI. 
SHOULD SOMETHING HAPPEN TO MUGABE TOMORROW, MNANGAGWA IS 
BEST POSITIONED TO STEP IN, PICK UP THE PIECES, AND 
CONSOLIDATE POWER.  DESPITE THE COMMON REFRAIN THAT 
MNANGAGWA IS WIDELY HATED IN THE PARTY FOR HIS 
RUTHLESSNESS, ONE CAN ALSO SEE IN HIM A PRAGMATIC AND 
SKILLFUL POLITICIAN THAT COULD HOLD A GOVERNMENT 
TOGETHER AND SOOTH AN INTERNATIONAL AUDIENCE.  IT IS FAR 
FROM CLEAR, HOWEVER, WHETHER HE WOULD MAKE THE HARD 
CHOICES TO SHORE UP ZIMBABWE'S CRUMBLING DEMOCRATIC 
INSTITUTIONS AND COLLAPSING ECONOMY.  MNANGAGWA WOULD 
REPRESENT A CONTINUATION OF THE MUGABE ERA, AND POSSIBLY 
A VERY LONG CONTINUATION AT THAT, SHOULD MUGABE HOLD THE 
MDC AT BAY IN THE ELECTION AND PASS THE BATON TO 
MNANGAGWA. 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  00975  03 OF 03  120948Z 
 
12.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: MAKONI, ON THE OTHER HAND, 
WOULD LIKELY TRY TO IMPLEMENT THE DEMOCRATIC AND 
ECONOMIC REFORMS NEEDED TO TURN ZIMBABWE AROUND, BUT HE 
MAY NOT HAVE THE POLITICAL SKILLS TO HOLD A FRACTIOUS 
GOVERNMENT TOGETHER OR FEND OFF CHALLENGES FROM THE 
OPPOSITION.  MAKONI, YOUNGER THAN MUGABE AND MNANGAGWA, 
WOULD REPRESENT A CLEAN BREAK FROM THE OLD ZANU-PF, AND 
COULD PROBABLY GARNER REAL PUBLIC SUPPORT.  HIS TENURE 
COULD BE SHORTENED, HOWEVER, BY MORE WILY AND RUTHLESS 
OPERATIVES IN ZANU-PF.  ZIMBABWEAN VOTERS COULD YET HAVE 
THE FINAL SAY, HOWEVER, AND CAST OUT THE WHOLE ZANU-PF 
LOT AND GIVE THE MDC A CHANCE AT GOVERNING.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
IRVING 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
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