US embassy cable - 04CARACAS1169

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 001169 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD 
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, VE 
SUBJECT: SIGNATURE TALKS ADVANCE AT CNE 
 
REF: A. CARACAS 1159 
 
     B. CARACAS 1054 
 
Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, 
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) National Electoral Council (CNE) Director Jorge 
Rodriguez announced April 5 that talks between the opposition 
and the GOV are "well advanced" on an agreement over the 
appeals process for the signatures collected in support of a 
recall vote on President Hugo Chavez.  Rodriguez said the CNE 
would consider, as a sign of good faith, delaying elections 
for governors and mayors to September 19, to permit a 
possible presidential referendum as early as August 8 (The 
date would conflict with the August 1 date envisioned for the 
regional elections).  Opposition negotiators expressed their 
willingness to go to the appeals process if it is transparent 
and practical.  The situation, however, is quite fluid.  End 
Summary. 
 
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CNE: Progress on Talks, Willing to Delay Regional Elections 
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2. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) Director Jorge 
Rodriguez announced on April 5 that talks between the 
opposition and the pro-GOV parties (the "Comando Ayacucho") 
are "well advanced" toward an agreement over the appeals 
process ("reparos") for the signatures collected to petition 
for a recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez. 
Rodriguez also said the CNE is considering postponing 
regional elections for governors and mayors to September 19 
as "a sign of good faith" that the CNE is trying to address 
opposition concerns.  Rodriguez admitted the original 
regional elections date of August 1 would complicate the 
logistics of a possible referendum, which Rodriguez suggested 
could be August 8.  Rodriguez noted that the postponement 
still needs the approval of the CNE board (Note:  Four of the 
five directors must agree on decisions affecting dates of 
elections.).  Rodriguez said he hoped to conclude talks with 
both the opposition and the pro-GOV parties on April 5. 
 
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The Opposition's Three Conditions 
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3. (C) Opposition representatives told to Polcouns April 2 
that talks indeed are advancing.  Opposition negotiator 
Enrique Naime said the number of signatures the CNE could 
consider valid would increase above 1.8 million, though Naime 
claimed the CNE was tinkering with the numbers on the 
municipal level to give the GOV the advantage.  Naime said 
they had compared CNE data, and found that the number of 
invalid signatures had increased by more than 100 percent in 
states where Chavez enjoys greater sympathy.  The opposition 
would thus face greater difficulty in revalidating signatures 
there.  Ambassador confirmed progress on the talks with 
Carter Center representative Francisco Diez on April 4, who 
said the two sides were still see-sawing on final details of 
the appeals process.  Press reports, though varied, say that 
the sticking points are closing certifications, tallying 
process, number of tables in each center, and the presence of 
witnesses and international observers. 
 
4. (U) Opposition negotiators held a press conference on 
April 5 giving three conditions to going to the appeals 
process.  First, the process must be transparent, with clear 
rules and auditable results.  International observers should 
be able to take "quick counts" as well, opposition leaders 
said.  Second, the process must be efficient, with an 
infrastructure sufficient to avoid bottlenecks.  Results 
should be released daily.  The opposition negotiators added 
that they had demanded that the referendum take place at the 
beginning of August, before the appeals process for the 
pro-GOV signature drive against National Assembly deputies. 
 
(Note:  August 19 marks the beginning of the final two years 
of Chavez's term, after which a recalled Chavez would be 
replaced by the vice president instead via new elections.) 
 
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Comando Ayacucho Opposes Delay 
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5. (U) Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) Deputy Willian Lara, 
speaking on behalf of the Comando Ayacucho, subsequently 
denounced Rodriguez's proposal to delay the regional 
elections.  Lara said the CNE's decision to do so would 
unconstitutionally lengthen the terms of mayors and 
governors.  Lara complained that the CNE was giving favorable 
treatment to the presidential referendum at the expense of 
the Comando Ayacucho's recall referendum against opposition 
deputies. 
 
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Comment 
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6. (C) Rodriguez's announcement is part of the negotiating 
process and is therefore subject to revision.  We take it as 
a sign that talks are progressing.  As Venezuela is headed 
into a four-day weekend for Holy Week, time is running out to 
get agreement on the appeals process before then.  The best 
case scenario of holding the presidential referendum by 
August 8, we note, still carries a risk of delays beyond 
August 19 -- and Chavez could find a way to make that happen. 
 
SHAPIRO 
 
 
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      2004CARACA01169 - CONFIDENTIAL