US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA338

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000338 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, ECON, LO 
SUBJECT: ELECTION SHOCKER: MECIAR AND GASPAROVIC TO SECOND 
ROUND WHILE REFERENDUM FAILS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: AMB. RONALD WEISER FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D 
 
    1.  (C) SUMMARY.  THE RESULTS OF THE APRIL 3 FIRST ROUND OF 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SHOCKED MOST OF SLOVAKIA.  HIGH POLL 
NUMBERS, COMPLACENCY, AND PROTEST VOTES AGAINST RECENT 
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL REFORMS HURT FOREIGN MINISTER EDUARD 
KUKAN AS ALMOST EVERYONE THOUGHT HE WOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 
SECOND ROUND.  LOW VOTER TURNOUT, HOWEVER, WORKED IN FAVOR OF 
VLADIMIR MECIAR (HIS VOTERS CONSISTENTLY SHOW UP AT THE 
POLLS) AND SMER-BACKED IVAN GASPAROVIC.  THE SECOND ROUND 
WILL BE HELD ON APRIL 17 -- HIGHER VOTER TURNOUT WILL LIKELY 
FAVOR GASPAROVIC WHILE MECIAR WOULD PROBABLY WIN IF VOTERS 
STAY AWAY.  THE REFERENDUM SEEKING EARLY ELECTIONS FAILED DUE 
TO INSUFFICIENT VOTER TURNOUT.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE RESULTS 
----------- 
 
2.  (U) OUT OF 4,202,899 ELIGIBLE VOTERS ONLY 1,986,214 
TURNED OUT TO VOTE (47.9 PERCENT, COMPARED TO 74 PERCENT IN 
1999).  THE TOP SIX VOTE GETTERS ARE BROKEN OUT BELOW, AND 
THE REMAINING FIVE CANDIDATES EACH RECEIVED LESS THAN 1 
PERCENT. 
 
                           VOTES        PERCENTAGE 
VLADIMIR MECIAR            650,242      32.73 
IVAN GASPAROVIC            442,564      22.28 
EDUARD KUKAN               438,920      22.09 
RUDOLF SCHUSTER            147,549       7.42 
FRANTISEK MIKLOSKO         129,414       6.51 
MARTIN BUTORA              129,387       6.51 
 
LOW VOTER TURNOUT THE DETERMINING FACTOR 
    ---------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) LOW VOTER TURNOUT WAS THE CRUSHING BLOW FOR EDUARD 
KUKAN'S CANDIDACY.  ANALYSTS REPORT THAT RURAL VOTERS 
(OVERWHELMINGLY HZDS) CAME OUT; URBAN VOTERS STAYED HOME, 
CONFIDENT THAT THEIR VOTE WOULD ONLY BE NEEDED IN THE SECOND 
ROUND AGAINST MECIAR.  KUKAN SUPPORTERS UNDERESTIMATED THE 
IMPORTANCE OF CASTING VOTES BECAUSE ALL OF THE POLLS 
INDICATED THAT KUKAN WOULD MAKE IT INTO SECOND ROUND AND THAT 
THE ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINED WAS WHO HE WOULD FACE. 
HUNGARIAN VOTERS STAYED HOME RATHER THAN SUPPORT THE KDH'S 
FRANTISEK MIKLOSKO AS THEIR PARTY RECOMMENDED.  BUTORA'S 6.51 
PERCENT WOULD LARGELY HAVE GONE TO KUKAN. 
 
REFERENDUM UNSUCCESSFUL 
----------------------- 
 
4.  (U) THE REFERENDUM ON EARLY ELECTIONS WAS UNSUCCESSFUL 
DUE TO INSUFFICIENT VOTER TURNOUT -- ONLY 35.86 PERCENT OF 
THOSE ELIGIBLE VOTED (12 PERCENT LESS THAN THE PRESIDENTIAL 
CONTEST), WHILE 50 PERCENT WAS REQUIRED FOR THE REFERENDUM TO 
BE VALID.  (TECHNICALLY, TWO ELECTIONS WERE HELD ON APRIL 3, 
IN SOME CASES WITH DIFFERENT POLLING PLACES, SO TURNOUT 
FIGURES DO NOT MATCH.)  OF THOSE WHO VOTED, 86.78 PERCENT 
FAVORED NEW ELECTIONS AND 11.93 WERE OPPOSED.  OPPOSITION 
LEADER ROBERT FICO TOLD THE PRESS THAT HE DID NOT CONSIDER 
THE FAILURE OF THE REFERENDUM (WHICH HIS SMER PARTY HAD 
CHAMPIONED) TO BE A FIASCO, BUT RATHER A SUCCESS BECAUSE MORE 
THAN ONE MILLION CITIZENS VOTED FOR A CHANGE IN GOVERNMENT. 
FICO DID NOT RULE OUT FUTURE ATTEMPTS BY SMER TO UNSEAT 
DZURINDA'S GOVERNMENT. 

COALITION VOTERS EXPRESS THEIR DISSATISFACTION 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
5.  (C) PRESIDENT SCHUSTER TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THE ELECTION 
RESULTS REFLECT A PROTEST VOTE.  AFTER WEEKS OF BEING TOLD 
NOT TO PARTICIPATE IN THE REFERENDUM, COALITION VOTERS 
FOLLOWED THOSE INSTRUCTIONS TO THE LETTER.  HOWEVER, THEY 
ALSO SHOWED THEIR DISPLEASURE WITH DZURINDA'S SLOVAK 
DEMOCRATIC AND CHRISTIAN UNION (SDKU) BY NOT VOTING FOR 
KUKAN.  MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACKS IN THE PRESS PLACE BLAME 
FOR THE COALITION'S FAILURE ON SDKU FOR NOT CONSULTING WITH 
COALITION MEMBERS TO SELECT A CANDIDATE WHO COULD HAVE BEEN 
BACKED BY ALL FOUR PARTIES.  KUKAN'S OWN STYLE DID NOT HELP 
HIS CAMPAIGN.  HE WAS LACKLUSTER WHILE STUMPING ON THE 
CAMPAIGN TRAIL AND UNINSPIRING DURING A TELEVISED DEBATE 
WHICH DID NOT MOTIVATE VOTERS TO GO TO THE POLLS ON A WARM 
AND SUNNY SATURDAY. 
 
MECIAR'S STRATEGY FOR ROUND TWO 
------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) SERGEJ KOZLIK OF HZDS TOLD EMBOFF THAT HIS PARTY WAS 
SURPRISED AND EXCITED BY MECIAR'S SUCCESS.  KOZLIK EXPECTED 
 
BRATISLAVA 00000338  002 OF 002 
 
UND.  KOZLIK WAS 
    CONFIDENT THAT HZDS VOTERS WOULD TURN OUT IN FORCE, BUT 
MECIAR HAS LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND HIS VOTER BASE AND 
THEREFORE LOW VOTER TURNOUT WORKS IN HIS FAVOR.  HE ADDED 
THAT THE TELEVISED DEBATES WOULD ALSO FAVOR MECIAR BECAUSE 
GASPAROVIC HAS ALWAYS BEEN SEEN AS MECIAR'S NUMBER TWO. 
 
WHAT HAPPENS NOW 
---------------- 
 
7.  (C) THE SECOND ROUND OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WILL BE 
HELD ON APRIL 17, AND THE COALITION PARTIES FACE SOME 
DIFFICULT CHOICES OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.  IMMEDIATELY 
FOLLOWING THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF ELECTION RESULTS, DZURINDA SAID 
THAT SDKU WOULD ENCOURAGE VOTERS TO STAY AWAY FROM THE POLLS 
ON APRIL 17; KDH HAS DONE THE SAME.  SMK AND ANO WILL DISCUSS 
STRATEGIES WITHIN THEIR OWN PARTIES BEFORE MAKING ANY 
RECOMMENDATIONS TO THEIR CONSTITUENTS.  ANO MP CERNA TOLD 
EMBOFF THAT IT IS IMPORTANT TO MOBILIZE THE VOTERS IN FAVOR 
OF THE LESSER EVIL, WHOM SHE VIEWS AS GASPAROVIC; HOWEVER, 
SHE ADDED THAT ANO WAS UNLIKELY TO OFFICIALLY ENDORSE EITHER 
CANDIDATE.  MARIAN LESKO, A POLITICAL ANALYST AND COLUMNIST, 
TOLD EMBOFF THAT AFTER THE INITIAL SHOCK AND DEPRESSION WORE 
OFF, HE EXPECTED COALITION LEADERS TO INDIRECTLY SUPPORT 
GASPAROVIC IN THE NEXT ROUND.  FICO AND SMER COULD PLAY THE 
ROLE OF KINGMAKER IF THEY ARE ABLE TO MOBILIZE THEIR VOTERS. 
AS ONE OF THE LARGEST PARTIES IN PARLIAMENT AND WITH 24-30 
PERCENT SUPPORT IN PUBLIC OPINION POLLING, SMER'S SUPPORT 
COULD GREATLY ENHANCE GASPAROVIC'S CHANCES OF WINNING.  HIGH 
VOTER TURNOUT WOULD INCREASE GASPAROVIC'S CHANCES, BUT HE 
WOULD PROBABLY NEED SOME ANTI-MECIAR SUPPORT FROM THE 
COALITION'S CONSTITUENCY.  (SEE SEPTEL FOR ANALYSIS OF A 
    MECIAR OR GASPAROVIC PRESIDENCY.) 
WEISER 
 
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