US embassy cable - 04TELAVIV2064

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002064 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, IS, GOI INTERNAL, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: SHARON READY TO REPLACE WAYWARD MINISTERS OVER 
DISENGAGEMENT 
 
REF: A. TEL AVIV 2034 
 
     B. TEL AVIV 2031 
     C. TEL AVIV 1953 
     D. TEL AVIV 1845 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Richard LeBaron for reason 1.4 (b) and 
 (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary. At the April 4 Cabinet meeting, PM Sharon 
invited two right-wing ministers to leave the coalition if 
they are not comfortable with its policies, demonstrating 
Sharon's confidence that Labor is waiting in the wings to 
replace these ministers' parties (ref A).  Sharon's display 
of bravado also sends a signal to Likud disengagement 
opponents that he feels confident his plan will gain a 
majority of Likud support in the upcoming party referendum, 
thereby putting pressure on undecided or opposing Likud 
ministers to back the plan.  The main wild card for Sharon 
continues to be AG Menachem Mazuz, who must decide whether to 
indict Sharon in the "Greek Island Affair."  End summary. 
 
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Sharon and Olmert Take on Eitam and Elon 
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2.  (C) In a display of bravado and impatience with vocal 
disengagement opponents, PM Sharon reportedly announced at 
his April 4 cabinet session that those ministers 
uncomfortable with his unilateral disengagement plan "can get 
up and leave" the government.  Sharon's outburst, as reported 
in the major daily Yedioth Ahronoth, was directed at National 
Religious Party (NRP) Minister of Construction and Housing 
Effi Eitam, whom Sharon accused of misrepresenting facts, 
including on Eitam's visits abroad.  (Note: Eitam has been a 
vocal opponent of Sharon's disengagement plan.)  Defending 
Sharon's criticism of Eitam, Deputy PM Ehud Olmert pointed 
out that it was "improper to criticize the PM in working 
visits abroad."  National Union Tourism Minister Benny Elon, 
who has unabashedly criticized Sharon's plan domestically and 
abroad, defended Eitam, asserting that opponents could 
criticize the plan until it was adopted by the government. 
Referring to himself and Eitam, Elon added that "we will 
leave the government if the government's decision (on the 
plan) does not satisfy us."  With that, Sharon responded "you 
really don't have to be here." 
 
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Referendum Campaign Heats Up 
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3.  (C) As lines in the sand are drawn by Sharon in his 
cabinet, Likud disengagement opponents are revving up a PR 
campaign to convince Likud members to vote against Sharon's 
plan in a party referendum to take place around mid-May (ref 
C).  Two out of Likud's 14 ministers -- 
Ministers-without-Portfolio Uzi Landau and Natan Sharansky -- 
are spearheading the "no" campaign along with several Likud 
MKs.  The Jewish settler movement and another Likud lobby are 
also reportedly organizing their own anti-disengagement 
campaigns, with one under the banner "Likudniks don't 
disengage."  At the same time, D/PM Olmert announced on April 
2 that he would be launching a campaign to gather support for 
the disengagement plan. 
 
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Comment 
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4.  (C) Sharon's raw exchange with Elon and Eitam indicates 
that he may be willing to take off the gloves as he enters 
the home stretch for his disengagement plan's survival and 
his own political survival in the face of a possible bribery 
indictment.  As Sharon made clear in his Passover interviews, 
he is counting on U.S. assurances gained during his April 14 
meeting with President Bush to help him win the hearts and 
minds of Likud members in the upcoming referendum.  With 
Likud rank-and-file support, he could then consolidate Likud 
ministerial support for his plan in a Cabinet vote.  Sharon 
stated in his Passover interview with Ma'ariv that he already 
believes that FinMin Netanyahu "will ultimately support (the 
plan) as will many other ministers...."  There is 
considerable speculation that Sharon has already worked out a 
deal with Shimon Peres for Labor to join with Likud after a 
cabinet vote approving the plan compels the NRP and NU to 
leave the coalition (ref A).  The only wild card for Sharon 
is AG Mazuz, who is now reportedly liable to take two months 
to reach an indictment decision, enough time, perhaps, for 
Sharon to shepherd his plan through the Likud, the government 
and perhaps the Knesset. 
 
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LeBaron