US embassy cable - 04ABUJA581

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000581 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, PHUM, NI 
SUBJECT: POLITICAL ASSASSINATIONS FROM A TO W -- WITH X, Y 
AND Z LIKELY 
 
REF: ABUJA 572 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES RICK ROBERTS FOR REASONS 1.5 
(B) and (D). 
 
1.  (S/NF)  SUMMARY:   Nigeria has been rocked by a wave of 
assassinations since February, although political violence 
has been common since the return to civilian rule in 1999. 
We see two distinct patterns to the assassinations, those 
stemming from local political rivalries, and those seeking to 
sway national politics (analysis septel).  President 
Obasanjo, and virtually all politicians, have called on the 
Nigeria Police Force to take action against the wave of 
assassinations.  Many politicians at all levels, both inside 
and outside government, are involved in assassinating their 
enemies, however, and we believe the wave will continue. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U)  The latest wave of assassinations began in February 
with the murder of PDP South-South Zonal Chairman Aminasoari 
Dikibo.  Following is a list of the most public of the 
attacks. 
 
a.  2/7/2004 Gunmen killed PDP Zonal Chairman Dikibo.  The 
police have made no progress in their investigation and a 
judicial panel complained that "the government" is impeding 
its work. 
 
b.  2/13/2004 Chief K.O. Enefe, a prominent PDP chieftain 
from Anambra was attacked in Lagos.  He survived. 
 
c.  3/3/2004  Benue Governor Akume's motorcade came under 
attack resulting in the death of PDP Board of Trustees member 
Andrew Agom.  No arrests have been made. 
 
d.  3/4/2004  PDP Local Government (LGA) Chairman candidate 
for Bassa LGA, Kogi State Luke Shigbaba, was killed by 
unknown assailants in his home.  No arrests have been made. 
 
e.  3/4/2004  A PDP LGA Chairman candidate in Edo State, 
Daniel Asekhame, was attacked by gunmen at the Beverly Hotel 
in Ekpoma.  Asekhame survived, but was critically injured and 
four others were killed.  No arrests have been made. 
 
f.  3/4/2004  Mr. Uche Ogbeh, Chairman of the Academic Staff 
Union at Alvan Ikoku College of Education was killed in his 
office by unknown assailants.  Ogbeh, a relative of PDP 
Chairman Audu Ogbeh, was in Owerri, Imo State.  No arrests 
have been made. 
 
g.  3/5/2004  The motorcade of AD Governor Bola Tinubu of 
Lagos state was attacked twice en route from Anambra in the 
Southeast to Lagos.  Tinubu was not in the motorcade at the 
time.  No arrests have been made. 
 
h.  3/7/2004  Chairman of Kogi State Independent Electoral 
Commission Phillip Olorunnipa was killed by unknown 
assailants in his home.  No arrests have been made. 
 
i.   3/20/2004  Anambra PDP Governor Ngige,s motorcade was 
involved in a traffic accident in Anambra state that 
demolished his bullet-proof vehicle.  At least one of the 
drivers was killed.  Ngige had been "kidnapped" by police in 
July 2003 in a strange incident apparently designed to force 
his resignation. 
 
j.  3/21/2004  PDP Northwest Zonal Chairman Bala Yauri died 
in a one-car accident near his home in Kebbi state. 
 
3.  (U)  Other prominent assassinations during the Fourth 
Republic (i.e. from 1999) include: 
 
j.  9//9/1999  Sunday Ugwu, brother to Enugu State Legislator 
Stanley Ugwu (PDP) was killed by unknown assailants.  No 
arrests have been made. 
 
k.  3/5/2001  PDP member Momoh Lawal was killed by unknown 
assailants in Okene, Kogi State.  No arrests have been make. 
 
l.  12/21/2001  State Assemblyman Odunayo Olagbaju was killed 
in Ile-Ife, Osun State.  No arrests have been made. 
 
m.  12/23/2001  Attorney General Bola Ige was killed in 
Ibadan, Osun State.  Several arrests have been made in three 
different groups.  The latest group is standing trial, 
although one prominent suspect was elected Senator from his 
jail cell. 
 
n.  8/13/2002  Janet Oladapo, a PDP member, was killed in 
Odigbo LGA, Ondo State.  No arrests have been made. 
 
o.  8/2002  Kwara State PDP Chairman Ahmed Pategi was killed 
by unknown assailants.  No arrests have been made. 
 
p.  8/2002  Victor Nwankwo, brother of Eastern Mandate Union 
leader Arthur Nwankwo, was killed by unknown assailants.  No 
arrests have been made. 
 
q.  9/1/2002  Branch chairman of the Nigerian Bar Association 
Barnabus Igwe and his pregnant wife Abigail were killed and 
their bodies mutilated by unknown assailants in Anambra 
State.  No arrests have been made. 
 
r.  9/2002  PDP chieftain Chimere Ikoku was killed by unknown 
assailants in Anambra State.  No arrests have been made. 
 
s.  11/2002  ANPP Senatorial hopeful Ogbonnaya Uche was 
killed by unknown assailants in Imo State.  No arrests have 
been made. 
 
t.  11/2002  AD member Emily Omope died from injuries 
sustained in an acid attack in Ogun State.  No arrests have 
been made 
 
u.  11/2002  PDP Gubernatorial aspirant Dele Orojo from Ogun 
State was killed by unknown assailants in Lagos.  No arrests 
have been made. 
 
v.  12/2002  UNPP member Isyaku Mohammed was killed by 
unknown assailants in Kano State.  No arrests have been made. 
 
w.  2/2003  PDP founding member Marshall Harry was killed by 
unknown assailants in Abuja.  From Rivers State, Harry had 
jumped to the ANPP and was spearheading ANPP Presidential 
candidate Muhammadu Buhari,s campaign efforts in the 
South-South area.  Arrests were made, but the only eyewitness 
claims that the police have arrested the wrong suspects.  No 
trial has been scheduled. 
 
Numerous other threats and attacks have taken place within 
these timeframes, and this cable does not deal with the many 
attacks and killings directly related to the conduct of the 
2003 elections. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
HOW THE ELECTION CHANGED ASSASSINATIONS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Of the above incidents, the Dikibo, Agom, Ogbeh, 
Tinubu, Ngige, Harry, Nwankwo, Ige, Olagbaju and Yauri 
attacks are thought to be connected to national politics. 
The most notorious during the 2003 election campaign were the 
killings of Ige, Olagbaju, Nwankwo and Harry.  The popular 
view is that the PDP faced difficulties winning the election 
in the three northern zones of Nigeria, so it thought it had 
to make absolutely certain it would win the southern three 
zones. 
 
--  Bola Ige, an AD chieftain, had joined the 1999 Obasanjo 
PDP cabinet.  He had determined to stand against Obasanjo and 
the PDP in the Southwest in 2003, however, and had begun 
laying plans to refocus the AD,s party platform in the area. 
 
--  Olagbaju had connections to Osun Deputy Governor Omisore, 
who is now on trial for Ige,s death. 
 
--  Harry and Nwankwo were apparently killed to keep them 
from using their money and influence against the PDP in the 
critical Southeast and South-South areas during the 2003 
elections. 
5.  (S/NF)  Now that the elections have returned the PDP to 
power, the more recent wave of attacks on Dikibo, Agom, 
Ogbeh, Tinubu, Ngige and Yauri appear to be intra-PDP 
affairs.  Former Minister of Works Tony Anenih and 
Presidential Adviser Andy Uba are widely thought to be using 
threats, intimidation and assassinations in order to install 
Anenih as the next PDP party chairman, and PDP Governor Orji 
Kalu has openly accused Anenih of plotting to assassinate 
him.  Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Sule Lamido is also 
often fingered as a partner in these activities. 
6.  (S/NF)  Dikibo, Agom and Yauri certainly were members of 
the PDP's party hierarchy that Anenih had been attempting to 
replace.  Agom, whose death is publicly viewed as collateral 
damage from an attack on Benue State Governor Akume, could as 
easily have been the intended victim (or one of two intended 
victims).  The reports of the attack on Akume,s motorcade do 
not coincide with the photos of the victims and some are 
asking whether Akume himself was part of the attack to 
eliminate Agom.  While Ngige and Yauri apparently were 
involved in automobile accidents, not an uncommon occurrence 
in Nigeria, they were on the same day.  Ngige,s history of 
troubles and a letter Yauri sent to the Inspector General of 
Police alleging threats to his life (similar to Kalu's 
accusation) just prior to the accident raise serious 
questions that have not been answered. 
--------------------------------------- 
IF ALL POLITICS ARE LOCAL, 
PERHAPS SO ARE POLITICAL ASSASSINATIONS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (S/NF)  A different, but widely held, view is that 
national politics is becoming mostly a rivalry between the 
state governors and central PDP officials like Anenih, Uba 
and Lamido.  Certainly many of the governors have voiced to 
poloffs that they fear the center.  The center has good 
reason to fear them; a collection of state governors almost 
denied Obasanjo the PDP nomination before the 2003 election, 
and the governors have increased their power in recent local 
elections (reftel). 
8.  (C)  Local politics can be just as dangerous as national, 
even when ethnic conflicts are not involved.  Kwara state has 
become as famous for political murders as Anambra is for 
political chicanery.  Kwara PDP kingpin Dr. Olusola Saraki 
was successful at installing his son as governor and his 
daughter as senator, both on the PDP ticket.  Originally with 
the ANPP, Saraki jumped ship over disagreements with the 
former ANPP Governor of Kwara.  Saraki's move into the Kwara 
PDP threatened to displace some from its leadership.  In 
2002, Kwara lost two PDP party chairmen in quick succession, 
including Pategi from the list above.  Several more death 
threats, "assassination attempts," and continuous inter-party 
clashes kept the situation boiling there until the elections. 
 Saraki appears to have the upper hand for the moment, but 
the history of Kwara suggests that his opponents are not 
ready to "live and let live." 
 
9.  (C)  Taraba State Governor Jolly Nname recently accused 
his Deputy Governor and the state's Commissioner of Works of 
attempting to assassinate him.  The Deputy Governor was 
impeached and the Commissioner is reportedly in jail. 
Nigerian "democracy" is pretty rough all over, something we 
will analyze septel. 
ROBERTS