US embassy cable - 04YEREVAN809

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000809 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, GG, AM 
SUBJECT:  DESPITE "HOT SPRING IN ARMENIA," REVOLUTION 
UNLIKELY TO BLOOM 
 
REF A) Yerevan 757, B) Yerevan 769 
 
1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please treat 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) Plans by opposition leaders for a "hot 
political spring" appeared to gain momentum in late 
March as politicians from both sides raised the level 
of rhetoric and hundreds of supporters gathered for the 
first set of protest rallies in Armenia's two largest 
cities.  National Unity Party founder Artashes 
Geghamian's announced March 24 that he would join 
Stepan Demirchian and the opposition Justice Bloc in 
its efforts to oust Kocharian.  This union signals the 
most cooperation within the opposition since large- 
scale protests following the 2003 presidential 
election.  The GOAM reacted to opposition plans by 
reinforcing law enforcement and judicial ranks with 
Kocharian loyalists and issuing public statements 
saying that it would not permit sustained unrest or 
plans for extra-constitutional activities.  Despite the 
recent surge of momentum, it remains unlikely that the 
opposition can create a solid platform that will garner 
enough support to unseat President Robert Kocharian. 
Lacking a charismatic leader upon whom a majority of 
Armenians agree, Armenia's opposition might stir up the 
political arena and make it uncomfortable for the GOAM, 
but will be hard pressed to replicate a "Rose 
Revolution" of their own this Spring.  End summary. 
 
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NATIONAL UNITY AND JUSTICE BLOC JOIN FORCES 
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3. (SBU) The alliance of the two largest, and former 
rival, opposition blocs foreshadowed what we expect 
will be large rallies in early April.  Artashes 
Geghamanian, leader of the National Unity Party, 
announced March 24 that he would join the Justice Bloc 
for anti-government protests.  Geghamian and Justice 
Bloc leader Stepan Demirchian announced that their "Hot 
Spring" campaign would officially begin with a rally in 
Yerevan April 5, during which they would announce 
future plans and rallies leading to "the abolishment of 
the illegal regime" and "the restoration of 
constitutional order in Armenia."  Geghamian had joined 
forces with Demirchian for protests following the 2003 
election, but the two opposition faction leaders had 
seemed increasingly at odds as the year progressed. 
 
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MODEST TURNOUT FOR A1+ 
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4. (SBU) In a prelude to "Hot Spring" activities, 
several anti-government rallies were held in Yerevan 
and Armenia's second largest city, Gyumri, during the 
past two weeks.  A scuffle broke out between police and 
protesters at an opposition rally in Gyumri March 28 
(ref A).  Roughly 300 supporters of embattled 
independent television station A1+ marked the second 
anniversary of the station's closing by rallying in 
Yerevan April 2.  The Yerevan City Police permitted the 
rally and accompanying march through Yerevan streets to 
proceed without incident, despite earlier GOAM 
declarations that it was an "illegal gathering." 
(Note:  Rally organizers had failed to secure the 
necessary permit for the gathering.  End Note.) 
 
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USING THE GEORGIAN MODEL 
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5. (SBU) Both the government and opposition have hinted 
during press interviews and meetings with us that they 
are "drawing lessons" from Georgia's recent "Rose 
Revolution" to guide their activities.  Demirchian and 
Geghamian view Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili's 
campaign to unseat former President Shevardnadze as a 
model for their own efforts.  Geghamian and Demirchian 
portray their alliance as a reflection of opposition 
alliances in Georgia prior to Shevardnadze's 
resignation.  Opposition leaders have stated in the 
press that the tactics of the Georgian opposition, 
pressuring the government by keeping their supporters 
on the streets in large numbers, can also be employed 
to topple the Kocharian regime.   For their part, the 
Armenian authorities seem intent to not repeat the 
perceived failure of the Shevardnadze regime to prevent 
an extended period of instability during the protests 
that culminated in the Georgian revolution.  In the 
past week, President Kocharian has placed known 
supporters in key administrative and judicial posts 
(ref B), and police officials have intervened in 
opposition rallies in the regions (ref A). 
 
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COMMENT 
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6. (SBU) Despite the recent surge of momentum, it 
remains unlikely that the opposition can create a solid 
platform that will garner enough support to unseat 
President Robert Kocharian.  The Geghamian-Demirchian 
union is at best a marriage of convenience unless they 
can produce an alternative political platform that 
includes solid proposals.  Lacking a charismatic leader 
upon whom a majority of Armenians can agree, the 
opposition might be able to stir up the political arena 
but will be hard pressed to replicate a "Rose 
Revolution" of their own this Spring.  Nonetheless, the 
opposition has the capacity to initiate a series of 
embarrassing incidents that could well put the GOAM on 
the defensive, and how the GOAM chooses to respond will 
be critical. 
ORDWAY