US embassy cable - 04KATHMANDU623

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000623 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2014 
TAGS: PTER, ASEC, PREL, ETRD, IN, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: NEPAL:MAOISTS ATTACK POLICE STATION IN TERAI, 
INDIAN TRUCKS 
 
REF: A. KATHMANDU 588 
 
     B. KATHMANDU 190 
 
Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  In an apparent retaliation against 
Indian interests for the March 29 arrest of Politburo member 
Mohan Vaidya in West Bengal (Ref A), Nepali Maoists torched 
18 Indian fuel trucks parked at a customs checkpoint, 
shooting three of the drivers, in the southwestern district 
of Kailali on April 3.  The Maoists at the scene reportedly 
distributed written statements claiming the sabotage was 
justified because of Vaidya's apprehension and warning of 
future attacks on Indian transportation and joint ventures in 
Nepal.  A nineteenth Indian truck was burned in the 
south-central district of Rupandehi.  The Maoist attacks mark 
the most direct confrontation between Nepali Maoists, many of 
whose leaders are believed to be in India, and the Indian 
Government.  In a separate incident, Maoists overran a police 
post in the southeastern district of Dhanusha on April 4, 
killing nine policemen.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C)  In an apparent retaliation against Indian interests 
for the March 29 arrest of Politburo member Mohan Vaidya in 
West Bengal (Ref A), Nepali Maoists destroyed 18 Indian fuel 
trucks parked near the border in the southwest district of 
Kailali late on April 3.  The trucks, which had transported 
petroleum from India into Nepal, were empty at the time.  The 
Maoists also shot three Indian truck drivers, who are 
currently hospitalized.  Indian Ambassador Shyam Saran 
confirmed the incident on April 4, adding that the Maoists 
told the drivers that the sabotage was in retaliation for 
Vaidya's arrest.  The Maoists also passed out literature at 
the scene warning that all Indian transportation and joint 
ventures in Nepal would be targeted.  Saran expressed 
frustration that the Government of Nepal (GON) was not able 
to ensure security for Indian businesses and transport.  In 
an apparently related incident, Maoists destroyed another 
Indian truck in the south-central distict of Rupandehi on 
April 4. 
 
3.  (SBU)  At about 2015 local time on April 4, approximately 
30 Maoists overran a police post in Yadukuwa in the 
southeastern district of Dhanusha.  Army reinforcements have 
reached the site.  Initial reports indicate that nine 
policemen were killed, including the Inspector, another six 
were wounded, and as many as fifteen remain unaccounted for. 
Police sources report that a number of .303 and 12-bore 
rifles were lost in the attack. 
 
4.  (C)  Comment:  In the past, the Maoists had limited their 
attacks against Indian interests in Nepal to the rhetorical, 
rather than the physical, presumably in order to safeguard 
their own substantial interests--including the apparent safe 
haven afforded some of their leaders--in India.  Although the 
Maoists have threatened and attacked Indian joint ventures 
(Ref B), those attacks caused only minor damage and likely 
represented nationalist grandstanding rather than a 
calculated attempt to oust Indian investors.  This recent 
sabotage--and accompanying rhetoric--pose risks to Nepal's 
fragile economy that are on a different order of magnitude. 
Landlocked and limited in its manufacturing capacity, Nepal 
depends on India for nearly all of its raw materials and 
consumer goods.  Lumbering, gaudy and ubiquitous, the Indian 
trucks used to haul these goods daily offer a ready target 
for Maoist ire.  Already stretched well beyond capacity, 
Nepali police and Army will be unable to provide security for 
the hundreds of Indian vehicles that cross into Nepal each 
day.  Should Indian truckers refuse to undertake the risk and 
halt transportation, the import-dependent Nepalese economy 
would quickly crumble.  That said, we suspect these recent 
Maoist attacks are more symbolic than strategic.  However 
angry they may be at Vaidya's arrest, the Maoists are 
unlikely to jeopardize the safety of their remaining leaders, 
who are known to be operating from India.  We expect this 
latest Maoist "campaign" against Indian "expansionism" to be 
short-lived. 
MALINOWSKI