US embassy cable - 04FRANKFURT2778

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 002778 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ECON, PINR, PREL, GM 
SUBJECT: Hesse Leader Koch Will not Actively Seek 
Chancellor Bid -- For Now 
 
REF: 03 Frankfurt 9873 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) At the Hesse CDU (Christian Democratic) convention 
March 20, Hesse Minister-President Roland Koch announced 
that he would not actively  seek nomination as the party's 
candidate for chancellor in the 2006 national elections. 
Koch acknowledged Angela Merkel's "undisputed" leadership of 
the CDU while indirectly criticizing her role in the 
selection of presidential candidate Horst Koehler.  Koch's 
precisely formulated words left Berlin political pundits 
unanimous in assessing that he will in fact leave the door 
open to take advantage of possible future missteps on 
Merkel's part.  Convention delegates voiced anger at the CDU 
leadership's handling of the Hohmann anti-Semitism affair 
(reftel).  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) At the March 20 Hesse CDU convention in Oberursel, 
Hesse Minister-President and CDU chairman Roland Koch 
announced he would not actively seek the nomination as CDU 
chancellor candidate in 2006, adding that he considers party 
chief Angela Merkel the "undisputed number one in the CDU." 
Koch said he would focus on making Hesse a conservative 
stronghold "on the order of Bavaria" and defending the CDU's 
absolute majority in 2008 Hesse state elections.  Koch 
hinted he would be less vocal on national issues, 
cautioning, however, that he "will not be reduced to silence 
by anyone."  Koch criticized the party's rejection of 
Wolfgang Schaeuble for federal president (after Schaeuble 
had been all but officially "anointed") as flawed and 
unfair.  Koch was re-elected as party chairman with over 95 
percent of the vote.  Although this result would please most 
politicians, it reflects a slight decline in support over 
the past two years (he received 98.9 percent at the CDU 
convention in 2002). 
 
3. (U) Koch laid out a conservative vision on cultural, 
economic, and national security issues.  He advocated 
banning Islamic headscarves for civil servants and remarked 
-- to loud applause -- that "we have a 2000-year Christian- 
Jewish history, and we will not banish that from our 
country."  As an example of economic success,  Koch cited 
Hesse's record on privatization (for instance, as the first 
German state to open a private jail) and pledged continued 
support for the expansion of Frankfurt airport.  He 
criticized the Greens, who "would even agree to building a 
nuclear power plant next to the airport, if that helped to 
prevent the expansion."  Koch also advocated a harder line 
against terror after the Madrid bombings, including the use 
of Bundeswehr units for anti-terrorist operations within 
Germany. 
 
4. (SBU) Convention delegates told us that few expected Koch 
to challenge Merkel in 2006;  most saw his national position 
as weakened by recent "defeats" by Merkel, such as over the 
Hohmann affair.  Party activists remain angry at what they 
perceive to be the national CDU's "unfair" targeting of the 
Hesse CDU (and Koch, by extension) after Bundestag member 
Martin Hohmann's controversial references to Jews as a 
"guilty people" (reftel).  Hesse CDU Youth (Junge Union) 
chairman Peter Tauber put it bluntly:  "Angela Merkel 
deliberately used the case to damage Koch ... Merkel should 
be careful what she does -- she is a politician who has 
never won an election and the party will consider that when 
selecting a challenger" to take on Chancellor Schroeder. 
 
5. (SBU) COMMENT:  Koch enjoys overwhelming support and 
solidarity within the Hesse CDU.  Moreover, Koch is young 
(he just turned 46) and could still stage a leadership bid 
should Merkel make any missteps.  Indeed, press commentary 
and our discussions with German political pundits suggest 
that the prevailing view here is that Koch would 
"reactivate" his pursuit of the candidacy should 
circumstances so permit.  CDU activists and Koch 
acquaintances opine that his decision to lie low for now was 
inevitable given growing acceptance of Merkel as the 
putative challenger to Gerhard Schroeder.  That could change 
if Merkel stumbles.  The next big test will be the election 
of the federal president.  While Merkel has been hailed by 
some as a winner in the presidential selection infighting 
thus far, her enemies could still create difficulties by 
withholding support for CDU/CSU candidate Horst Koehler on 
the first (and maybe second) ballot.  END COMMENT. 
 
BODDE