US embassy cable - 04GUATEMALA824

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 000824 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, GT 
SUBJECT: CICIACS GOES TO COURT 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  The GOG-UN agreement to create a 
Commission to Investigate Clandestine Groups (CICIACS) is 
slowly moving toward implementation, if fitfully.  The 
CICIACS agreement underwent Congressional review in February 
and March and will shortly be sent to the Constitutional 
Court for its legal opinion.  President Berger publicly 
expressed his Administration's commitment to implement the 
CICIACS in a national address on February 25.  The Court will 
likely be swayed by President Berger's public support and a 
favorable ruling would make Congressional ratification more 
likely.  End Summary. 
 
Presidential Position Clear 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) President Berger on February 25 declared his 
government's strong support for CICIACS in a high-profile 
ceremony "re-launching" the Peace Accords.  Berger told the 
Ambassador during a March 24 meeting with USAID A/A Franco 
that he remains committed to CICIACS implementation.  Vice 
President Stein has the lead within the Executive on CICIACS, 
supported by Frank LaRue, President of the Presidential 
Commission on Human Rights (COPREDH).  Stein plans to 
reaffirm the GOG's commitment during a visit to UN 
headquarters in New York later this month.  At the same time, 
he will explore UN willingness to adjust the agreement, 
should the Constitutional Court find any of its aspects 
unconstitutional. 
 
Court Ruling Could Resolve Congressional Qualms 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
3.  (SBU)  A 60-day deadline for Congressional consideration 
of CICIACS began February 6, when the GOG-UN agreement was 
sent to the Congressional Government and Human Rights 
Commissions for review.  In a March 29 meeting with HROff, 
Nineth Montenegro Human Rights Commission President said the 
Human Rights Commission would recommend that Congress request 
an opinion from the Constitutional Court on the legality of 
the agreement.  The Government Commission will reportedly 
advise against ratification.  Public debate over CICIACS has 
centered on constitutional and sovereignty concerns.  FRG, 
UNE, and GANA coalition Congressional leaders we have 
consulted all agree a positive ruling by the Court would 
counter those doubts and make a favorable ruling from 
Congress likely. 
 
Donor Reaction Positive 
----------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) MINUGUA Human Rights Chief Patrick Gavigan now 
estimates the CICIACS budget at $8-10 million/year for three 
years.  The UN recently held a donor meeting in New York and 
anticipates positive reception from donors like the World 
Bank/IDB if the UN-GOG CICIACS agreement is ratified by 
Congress.  There is donor consensus that the GOG should 
contribute a portion of the CICIACS budget in order to 
demonstrate its commitment to the process.  In a February 26 
meeting with the Ambassador, Helen Mack said the "Coalition 
for the Establishment of CICIACS," of which she is a member, 
would suggest the Public Ministry, Interior Ministry, and 
National Civil Police contribute to CICIACS from their 
respective budgets.  Frank LaRue has told us he believes the 
GOG would contribute funds as a symbolic gesture of GOG 
dedication to project, but would not be able to offer 
significant amounts. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5. (SBU) The highly politicized behavior of the 
Constitutional Court may actually work in favor of the 
implementation of CICIACS.  Our analysis of the 
constitutional issues involved in CICIACS is that there is 
enough gray area to permit Court rulings in favor (or 
against) on the merits.  Some prominent CICIACS supporters, 
including Helen Mack and other human rights activists, have 
long believed a Court ruling will be necessary.  Although 
this is the same court that ruled in favor of Gen. (ret.) 
Rios Montt's quixotic presidential candidacy last year, the 
Court has more recently ruled favorably on several Executive 
initiatives (including the replacement of the former Attorney 
General and the lifting of former President Portillo's 
parliamentary immunity) and seems highly attuned to changes 
in the political environment that accompanied the change in 
government.  Berger has made his support for CICIACS clear 
and we are hopeful the Court will follow his lead.  A 
favorable Court ruling would make Congressional passage more 
likely. 
HAMILTON