US embassy cable - 04BRATISLAVA330

UNCLAS  BRATISLAVA 000330 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
FOR GENERAL FOGLESONG FROM AMBASSADOR WEISER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: MARR, PREL, PGOV, PINR, LO, NATO 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF GEN ROBERT H. FOGLESONG, 
COMMANDER U.S. AIR FORCES IN EUROPE AND ALLIED AIR FORCES 
NORTH 
 
 
1. (U) Summary and Introduction: Welcome to Slovakia!  I 
regret that I will not be able to join you in Sliac.  I 
expect that you will have a productive visit on April 5 and 
learn first-hand how Slovakia will contribute to the 
Alliamce.  I hope you will have the opportunity to return to 
Slovakia soon and visit Kuchyna, the Slovak range near 
Bratislava where the 16th Air Force has trained on several 
occasions.  I look forward to welcoming you then. 
 
2. (SBU) Your visit provides the opportunity to: 
 
--welcome the Slovak Air Force as a new member of the 
Alliance, expressing confidence that cooperation between 
Slovakia and fellow NATO members will continue to deepen and 
encouraging them to consider tactical airlift (C-130) for the 
future; 
 
--thank the GOS for their contribution to Operation Enduring 
Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom as well as their intended 
deployment to ISAF in May, encouraging them to continue to 
contribute to the war on terrorism depite the recent barbaric 
attacks on military forces and civilian populations of 
coalition members; 
 
--encourage the GOS to stay the course on military reform and 
professionalization. 
 
There will be a press conference during which Slovak 
journalists will likely ask questions about Slovakia's NATO 
membership, specifically how Slovakia's Air Forces will be 
integrated into NATO and what the Slovak Air Force's 
contribution brings to the Alliance.  In addition, reporters 
may inquire about Slovakia's participation in both OEF and 
OIF. 
 
Political Dynamics 
------------------ 
 
3.  (SBU) Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda's government is a 
center-right coalition made up of four parties that were 
elected in the fall of 2002 to a four-year term.  Although 
this government is more ideologically coherent than its 
predecessor, also led by Dzurinda, it has faced considerable 
challenges since its formation.  Dzurinda recalled Minister 
of Defense Ivan Simko in September 2003 for what he described 
as insubordation.  Simko would not support the PM's decision 
to recall the head of the National Security Office (NBU), 
which issues NATO security clearances.  Juraj Liska, a member 
of Dzurinda's party and former mayor of Trencin, was named 
Defense Minister in October. 
 
4.  (SBU) On April 3 Slovakia will hold the first round of 
presidential elections.  The president has little formal 
power in Slovakia, but can influence decisions by using his 
office as a bully pulpit and can veto legislation.  There are 
currently 11 candidates in the race, but only 
three--including Foreign Minister Eduard Kukan, former PM 
Vladimir Meciar, and former speaker of parliament Ivan 
Gasparovic--have any real chance of making it into a second 
round.  A second round between the top two vote getters will 
be held on April 17 if no candidate wins at least 50 percent 
of the vote. 
 
5.  (SBU) Opposition parties and labor unions have organized 
a referendum for April 3 calling for early elections which 
will be held concurrently with the presidential elections. 
Slovakia has had only one successful referendum since 
independence with the others failing due to a lack of voter 
turnout.  All public opinion polls to date suggest that this 
one will fail as well due insufficient turnout.  The 
referendum is non-binding, so the decision to hold early 
elections would still have to be made in parliament, where it 
would likely fail. 
 
Defense Spending 
---------------- 
 
6.  (SBU) The Slovaks committed to spending 2 percent of GDP 
after the Prague Summit.  For 2004, the defense budget is 
1.81 percent of GDP, but additional outlays, including 
settlement of Soviet-era debt, should bring total defense 
spending to 2.02 percent.  However, Finance Minister Miklos 
 
has argued strongly that defense spending be cut and it is 
unclear whether the GOS and parliament have the willpower to 
keep defense spending at a real 2 percent in the out years. 
 
OIF/OEF/ISAF 
------------ 
 
7.  (SBU) Per capita, Slovakia is one of the most active 
international peace-keeping nations with approximately 750 
personnel deployed in 11 missions.  The GOS, with only 
minimal public backing, strongly supported the war in Iraq 
and sent a chem-bio consequence management unit to Kuwait 
under Czech command.  After the end of hostilities, the unit 
(82-strong) was replaced with an engineering unit (105 
soldiers) that is currently deployed in the Polish sector. 
 
8.  (SBU) The Slovaks also have a 40-person air-field 
construction unit deployed as part of OEF at Bagram Air Base 
in Afghanistan.  Their six-month mandate has been extended 
three times.  PM Dzurinda visited this unit in January.  The 
Slovaks will send a 15-person demining team to Afghanistan 
under ISAF command in May, their first mission as a NATO 
member under the NATO flag. 
 
Military Reform 
--------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) This year the Ministry of Defense will conduct a 
mid-course review of its long-term military reform strategy 
Force 2010.  The review will take into account changes in 
NATO Force Goals as well as different realities in Slovakia. 
The Slovaks are committed to developing their chemical 
defense unit as a niche capability for NATO.  The other niche 
capabilities they have identified are military police and 
engineers. 
 
10.  (SBU) Defense Minister Liska commissioned a new study on 
the air force which recommended extending the life of 10 
MiG-29s plus 2 trainers, rather than follow the paths of 
their neighbors and issue a tender for fighters.  The study 
also suggested upgrading 18 Mi-24 attack helicopters, but the 
Slovaks plan to upgrade 10.  In addition, the study 
recommended acquiring 2-4 medium lift transport aircraft by 
2010.  They are considering acquiring C-130s under the Excess 
Defense Articles program.  This proposal is still in the 
early stages, but the Slovaks are very interested.  We have 
encouraged Liska to incorporate the study within the larger 
context of Force 2010. 
 
11. (SBU) Major General Jozef Dunaj, Commander of the Slovak 
Air Force, is not a fan of the F-16.  He supports MiG-29 
upgrades as a stopgap measure, but would prefer to see 
Slovakia acquire F-18s or Joint Strike Fighters in the 
future.  MajGen Dunaj is likely to inquire about USAFE's 
support for the Bratislava air show (SIAD) on June 12-13, 
2004.  USDAO has already forwarded requests for participation 
by USAFE, based on requests from the Slovak Air Force, namely 
flying displays of F-15 and F-117 aircraft and static 
displays of KC-135 and A-10A aircraft.  Dunaj will also seek 
a committment for increased contact and training 
opportunities for 16th Air Force, using the training range at 
Kuchyna/Malacky airbase. 
WEISER 
 
 
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