US embassy cable - 04BRUSSELS1431

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001431 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DOL FOR BLS AND ILAB 
TREASURY FOR IMI 
STATE FOR DRL/IL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB, EUN, USEU BRUSSELS 
SUBJECT: EU-15 UNEMPLOYMENT UNCHANGED AT 8.0 PERCENT 
 
1.  SUMMARY.  Aggregate unemployment in the EU-15 
was 8.0 percent in February 2004.  The rate was 
unchanged compared to the seven previous months and 
the February 2003 rate.  The ten acceding countries 
showed a 14.2 percent average unemployment rate for 
February 2004, also unchanged for the past five 
months.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  With seasonal adjustment and compensation for 
differences in national statistical methods, the EU- 
15 unemployment rate stood at 8.0 percent in 
February 2004, according to estimates released by 
the Commission's Statistical Office (EUROSTAT) on 
April 1.  The aggregate rate was unchanged compared 
to the seven previous months and the corresponding 
month of 2003. 
 
3.  The unemployment rate for the euro zone (the 
twelve EU countries participating in the euro) was 
also stable at 8.8 percent in February 2004, again 
unchanged since July 2003 and showing a marginal 
increase from 8.7 percent in February 2003. 
 
4.  The lowest rates among the EU-15 (February 2004 
rates unless otherwise indicated) were recorded in 
Luxembourg (4.0 percent), Austria (4.4 percent), 
Ireland (4.5 percent) and the Netherlands (4.5 
percent, January 2004).  Spain (11.2 percent) still 
showed the highest unemployment rate among the EU- 
15. 
 
5.  EUROSTAT noted that among the EU Member States 
that contributed data for at least one month in the 
period December 2003 - February 2004, nine showed an 
increase in their unemployment rate over the past 
twelve months, four a decrease and one recorded no 
change.  The most significant increases in 
unemployment rates were recorded in the Netherlands 
(from 3.2 percent in January 2003 to 4.5 percent in 
January 2004), Sweden (from 5.1 percent in February 
2003 to 6.4 percent in February 2004), Denmark (from 
5.1 percent in January 2003 to 6.1 percent in 
January 2004), and Luxembourg (from 3.3 percent in 
February 2003 to 4.0 percent in February 2004).  By 
contrast, Italy's rate decreased from 8.9 percent in 
January 2003 to 8.5 percent in January 2004, the 
UK's decreased from 4.9 percent in December 2002 to 
4.8 percent in December 2003, Spain's rate decreased 
from 11.4 percent in February 2003 to 11.2 percent 
in February 2004, and Finland's from 9.0 percent in 
February 2003 to 8.9 percent in February 2004. 
Ireland's rate was unchanged at 4.5 percent in a 
February-to-February comparison. 
 
6.  EUROSTAT estimated male unemployment for the EU- 
15 to have increased from 7.2 percent in February 
2003 to 7.3 percent in February 2004 (from 7.7 
percent to 7.8 percent for the euro zone).  The 
female rate over the same period remained the same 
(8.9 percent) for the EU-15 and increased from 10.1 
percent to 10.2 percent for the euro zone. 
 
7.  Unemployment rates among young people under 25 
ranged from 7.2 percent in Austria (February 2004) 
to 27.1 percent in Italy (January 2004).  The rate 
for this age group in February 2004 was estimated at 
15.5 percent for the EU-15 and 16.8 percent for the 
euro zone, compared to 15.6 percent (thus down 0.1 
percentage point) and 16.8 percent (unchanged) 
respectively in February 2003. 
 
8.  EUROSTAT estimated that 14.2 million were 
unemployed in the EU-15 in February 2004 (12.4 
million in the euro zone).  Following is the 
breakdown of unemployment rates for the individual 
EU Member States: 
 
(Seasonally-adjusted) 
 
                FEB 2004    JAN 2004      CHANGE 
 
Belgium           8.5           8.4      plus 0.1 
Denmark           N/A           6.1 
Germany           9.3           9.2      plus 0.1 
Greece            N/A           N/A 
Spain            11.2          11.2 
France            9.4           9.5      minus 0.1 
Ireland           4.5           4.5 
Italy             N/A           8.5 
Luxembourg        4.0           3.9      plus 0.1 
Netherlands       N/A           4.5 
Austria           4.4           4.5      minus 0.1 
Portugal          6.8           6.8 
Finland           8.9           8.9 
Sweden            6.4           6.0      plus 0.4 
UK                N/A           N/A 
 
9.  While no combined figures are offered (yet) for 
the EU-25, EUROSTAT publishes monthly rates for the 
ten "acceding countries" expected to join the EU on 
May 1, 2004.  The average rate for the "ten" was 
14.2 percent in February 2004, unchanged for the 
past six months and down from 14.4 percent in 
February 2003.  The ten's rate remains heavily 
influenced by the situation of the labor market in 
Poland (19.1 percent unemployment) and Slovakia 
(16.7 percent).  The country-by-country breakout was 
as follows: 
 
                 FEBR 2004   JAN 2004      CHANGE 
 
Czech republic    8.2           8.2 
Estonia           9.4           9.5      minus 0.1 
Cyprus            4.8           4.8 
Latvia           10.6          10.5      plus 0.1 
Lithuania        11.6          11.7      minus 0.1 
Hungary           5.9           5.9 
Malta             N/A           8.8 
Poland           19.1          19.1 
Slovenia          6.4           6.4 
Slovakia         16.7          16.6      plus 0.1 
 
10.  NOTES.  The monthly rates and numbers of 
unemployed are estimated and based on data from the 
annual EU labor force survey.  The estimated rates 
may differ from national unemployment rates due to 
differences in methods and definitions of 
unemployment.  Unemployed people according to ILO 
criteria are those aged 15 and over who: 
 
--   Are without work; 
 
--   Are available to start work within the next two 
     weeks; and 
 
--   Have actively sought employment at some time 
     during the previous four weeks. 
 
SCHNABEL