US embassy cable - 04KATHMANDU612

UNCLAS KATHMANDU 000612 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS AND DS/IP/SA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, ASEC, CASC, NP 
SUBJECT: NEPAL:  ROCK THROWING, TEAR GAS MARK SECOND DAY OF 
POLITICAL PROTESTS 
 
 
1.  (SBU)  The second consecutive day of protests against the 
Government of Nepal (GON) out by five political parties in 
the capital turned violent on April 2.  At least seven 
politicians were reported hospitalized after participants 
began throwing rocks and bricks at policemen in the center of 
the city, who responded by firing 10-15 blank rounds and 
20-25 rounds of tear gas.  At another location in central 
Kathmandu, police fired tear gas on protesters trying to 
break down security barriers.  Agitators within the crowds 
were urging participants to try to march on the Royal Palace 
(about 1-2 km from the site of the main demonstration).  As 
of COB on April 2, protests were still ongoing--an unusual 
phenomenon in a city in which demonstrations usually disband 
by 4:00 p.m.  Police sources told us that they do not expect 
the protest to dissipate until dark. 
 
2.  (U)  Today's protests follow a largely peaceful 
demonstration on April 1, which drew throngs estimated by 
some at up to 35,000.  Today's gathering, while considerably 
smaller (estimated at about 15,000), is demonstrating 
decidedly more aggressive behavior.  (Note:  Local press 
reports of turnouts at protests are generally highly 
exaggerated.  Reliable estimates are difficult to obtain. 
End note.)  The demonstrations severely disrupted traffic for 
both days in the busy capital.  The political parties, who 
have been protesting against the GON for the past 18 months, 
have termed this latest effort a "decisive" stage in their 
ongoing campaign against "regression."  Their aim is to 
pressure the Palace to replace the current royally appointed 
Government with an all-party government.  After assessing the 
outcome of today's protests, the leaders will likely decide 
whether to continue demonstrations for a third day. 
 
3.  (SBU)  Comment:  Previous protests against "regression" 
have seen a similar level of violence--and have had little 
perceptible impact on moving the Palace or the general 
population.  Past practice, moreover, shows that party 
leaders are unable to sustain high levels of enthusiasm--and 
attendance--for their protests for more than a few days.  The 
weekend, inclement weather and the upcoming Maoist general 
strike, or "bandh," scheduled for April 6-8, will likely also 
dampen turnout if the parties persist.  We expect the 
leadership, after claiming the "decisive stir" was 
effective--whether it was or not--will announce an end to 
this phase of their campaign within the next day or two. 
 
MALINOWSKI