US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO579

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000579 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, DRL 
 
NSC FOR E. MILLARD 
 
PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC 
 
E.O. 12958:     DECL: 04-02-14 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PHUM, ASEC, PTER, CE, LTTE - Peace Process, Elections 
SUBJECT:  Sri Lanka goes to the polls:  Situation is 
calm nationwide with few reports of violence 
 
Refs:  (A) Colombo - Ops Center 04-02-04 telecon 
-      (B) FBIS Reston VA DTG 020124Z Apr 04 
-      (C) Colombo 572, and previous 
-      (D) Oslo 575 
 
(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of 
Mission.  Reasons 1.5 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Sri Lankans flocked to the polls 
April 2 to elect a new Parliament.  The situation 
throughout the country -- including the often volatile 
north and east -- is reportedly calm and there have been 
few reports of violence.  Turnout seems high.  Polls 
have now closed and results will begin to dribble in 
late April 2.  A clear picture of the winners and the 
losers should emerge on April 3.  Although it is too 
early to assess with finality the freeness and fairness 
of the election, indications appear mainly on the 
positive side at this point.  Late reports raise 
questions about Tamil Tiger activities, including 
possible fraud, however.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (SBU) SRI LANKA VOTES:  Sri Lankans flocked to the 
polls April 2 to elect a new Parliament.  Polling 
stations, which were open from 7:00 a.m. - 4:00 p.m., 
are now closed.  Turnout appears to have been high. 
(Turnout may match the 75 percent recorded in the last 
parliamentary election in December 2001, but there are 
no firm figures as of yet.)  Based on what the ten 
Mission teams scattered around the country reported, 
crowds lining up at polling stations to vote seemed 
enthusiastic.  Monitors from the European Union and the 
Commonwealth reported to us that they were also struck 
by the apparent orderliness of the voting process. 
Representatives of the National Democratic Institute 
(NDI) have also been out and about and report that they 
have seen no anomalies. 
 
3.  (SBU) SITUATION BASICALLY PEACEFUL:  Overall, 
election day appears to have been largely peaceful.  (If 
this assessment holds up, it is contrary to past 
patterns in Sri Lanka:  over 12 people were killed on 
election day in December 2001, for example.)  Some minor 
acts of violence were reported, but nothing major has 
been reported as of yet (reports from rural areas can be 
slow to trickle in, however).  There was a large 
presence of security forces throughout the country, 
especially in the always volatile north and east (see 
paras 5-6).  Kingsley Rodrigo, the head of the People's 
Alliance for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL), a local 
NGO with thousands of election monitors stationed 
nationwide, told poloff that it had been "a remarkably 
peaceful election," based on the reports he had heard 
thus far.  P. Saravanamuttu, the head of the Center for 
Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV), another NGO, told 
us that his organization had yet to pick up reports of 
"serious violence."  (The election-related activities of 
PAFFREL and CMEV are partially funded by USAID.) 
 
4.  (SBU) It is uncertain whether or not the GSL plans 
to impose a national curfew the night of April 2.  The 
imposition of a curfew has been a fixture after past 
elections, as the GSL worked to prevent tensions from 
getting out of hand during the sensitive counting of the 
ballots stage of the electoral process.  RSO understands 
that the police -- taking into account the generally 
peaceful nature of the voting -- are reviewing the 
matter and the GSL will make a determination later in 
the day. 
 
5.  (C) NORTH/EAST APPEARS MAINLY QUIET:  Voting in Sri 
Lanka's north and east also appears to have proceeded 
peacefully.  Father Harry Miller, an Amcit Catholic 
priest (please protect), told poloff that Batticaloa 
District was "quite peaceful with no problems reported." 
(Amid reports of an imminent face-off between rival 
northern and eastern elements of the Tamil Tigers, and 
the March 30 assassination of a Tamil candidate, 
Batticaloa has been the scene of significant tension in 
recent days -- see Reftels.)  Mission team in Jaffna 
also reported that the situation was quiet.  The 
Norwegian-run Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) told 
poloff that its monitors had heard of no problems in the 
north and east.  (The SLMM has a staff of some 60 
monitors from Nordic countries observing the ceasefire.) 
 
6.  (SBU) In the meantime, it appears that Tamils living 
in areas controlled by the Tigers were allowed to vote 
without too much hindrance at sites set up on the border 
between Tiger- and GSL-controlled areas in the north and 
east.  A significant tie-up in traffic developed, 
however, as these voters lined up at military 
checkpoints before being allowed access to the polling 
stations.  Government security forces, however, were 
apparently quite helpful in allowing voters through and 
these were no reports of Tamils being harassed or 
prevented from voting (see below re Tamil Tiger 
activities, however).  Mission team in Vavuniya, a 
border town located just south of the Tiger-controlled 
Vanni region, reported that voting appeared to be going 
relatively smoothly in the area.  (The apparent ease 
with which Tamils from Tiger-controlled areas voted this 
time around is a marked shift:  the Sri Lankan military, 
acting on orders from the President's office, prevented 
tens of thousands of Tamils from voting in December 
2001.) 
 
7.  (C) LATE REPORTS RE TIGERS:  Late in the day, press 
reports cited V. Anandasangaree, a candidate and 
longtime MP, as accusing the Tigers of engaging in 
"massive rigging" and "voter impersonation" in Jaffna. 
(Anandasangaree, a close Mission contact, is a dedicated 
opponent of the Tigers.)  There were also unconfirmed 
reports that Tiger personnel might be acting in a 
coercive manner near polling stations located near the 
Vanni/Vavuniya border and that these personnel might be 
impersonating voters on the rolls.  We will sort out 
these reports in the days ahead. 
 
8.  (SBU) RESULTS TO DRIBBLE IN LATER:  The next step in 
the process is the counting of the ballots.  The 
tabulation of results is a very slow process in Sri 
Lanka.  The first results will begin to be announced 
late April 2 -- postal ballots will be the first counted 
and those results released at around 9:30 p.m.  The 
counting of votes will continue overnight, and a clear 
picture of winners and losers should emerge by mid-day 
April 3.  If the election is particularly close, 
however, it may take additional time to size up the 
exact configuration of the next Parliament. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT:  The April 2 election was the first 
held in Sri Lanka during peacetime conditions in over 20 
years (the ongoing peace process began in December 2001 
right after the last parliamentary election).  Based on 
what we are hearing so far, Sri Lankans can congratulate 
themselves -- the electoral process seems to have gone 
relatively smoothly and peacefully, thus far.  That 
said, it is too early to assess with finality the 
freeness and fairness of the election.  Counting the 
votes has not even begun (this is an area where there 
have been some fraud problems in the past).  Moreover, 
local and foreign monitors have expressed concern about 
the degree of intimidation in the north and east meted 
out by the Tigers during the campaign.  (As flagged 
above, there are also claims that the Tigers have been 
active on election day in various fraudulent 
activities.)  The Election Commissioner is expected to 
give his initial assessment as to the free and fair 
nature of the election late April 2.  Local and foreign 
monitors are slated to do the same April 2-3.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
10.  (U) Minimize considered. 
 
LUNSTEAD