US embassy cable - 04CARACAS1134

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001134 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR TOM SHANNON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, VE 
SUBJECT: ROPE A DOPE 

 
CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR CHARLES S. SHAPIRO FOR 
REASON 1.4 (D). 
 
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GREENBERG POLL:  CHAVEZ DOWN 10 POINTS 
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1. (C) I HOSTED A MEETING THIS MORNING IN WHICH MARK 
FEIERSTIEN, PROJECT MANAGER FOR POLLING FIRM GREENBERG 
QUINLAN ROSNER RESEARCH, BRIEFED THE AMBASSADORS OF BRAZIL, 
CANADA, CHILE, MEXICO, AND PORTUGAL AND MYSELF ON THE RESULTS 
OF THE POLL HE COMPLETED ON MARCH 27. (HE PROMISED TO SEND US 
THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION WHICH WE WILL FORWARD TO 
WHA/AND.)  IN GENERAL, THE RESULTS ARE THAT SINCE NOVEMBER, 
CHAVEZ HAS DROPPED AROUND 10 POINTS ON A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT 
INDICATORS TO THE LOW TO MID-30S, DEPENDING ON HOW THE 
QUESTION IS PHRASED.  ON THE REFERENDUM, LIKELY VOTERS FAVOR 
RECALLING CHAVEZ BY A MARGIN OF 62-31. THOSE POLLED -- 1000 
LIKELY VOTERS -- OVERWHELMINGLY WANT THE OPPOSITION TO 
EXHAUST ALL LEGAL MEANS TO ACHIEVE A RECALL REFERENDUM. 
 
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CHAVEZ TO BLAME FOR BAD RELATIONS WITH U.S. 
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2. (C) ONE ADDITIONAL CONCLUSION STRUCK ME AS KEY: 
VENEZUELANS OVERWHELMINGLY BLAME CHAVEZ FOR THE POOR STATE OF 
U.S.- VENEZUELAN RELATIONS.  ONLY 24 PERCENT APPROVE (7 
PERCENT APPROVE STRONGLY, 17 PERCENT APPROVE) OF CHAVEZ'S 
HANDLING OF THE RELATIONSHIP, THE LOWEST APPROVAL SCORE OF 
    ANY OF THE ISSUES POLLED.  IN CONTRAST, 44 PERCENT APPROVE OF 
HOW HE IS DEALING WITH POVERTY.  TO PUT THE ABOVE IN A 
DIFFERENT CONTEXT, WHILE 25 PERCENT APPROVE STRONGLY OF 
CHAVEZ OVERALL, ONLY 7 PERCENT APPROVE STRONGLY OF HIS 
HANDLING OF U.S-VENEZUELAN RELATIONS.  IN OTHER WORDS, EVEN 
HARD-CORE CHAVISTAS DISAPPROVE OF HOW CHAVEZ IS MANAGING 
RELATIONS WITH THE U.S.  FEIERSTEIN ADDED THAT IN SIX FOCUS 
GROUPS CONDUCTED, CHAVISTAS OBJECTED TO CHAVEZ,S INCENDIARY 
LANGUAGE AND THEY OBJECTED MOST OF ALL TO LANGUAGE USED WITH 
REGARD TO THE U.S. 
 
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ROPE A DOPE 
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3. (C) CHAVEZ IS HURTING HIMSELF WITH HIS CONSTANT ATTACKS ON 
THE U.S.  AMBASSADOR MAISTO DID A SUPERB JOB OF MAINTAINING 
THE HIGH GROUND IN REPLYING TO CHAVEZ,S BIZARRE ACCUSATIONS 
IN THE OAS PERMANENT COUNCIL.  CHAVEZ WOULD LOVE FOR US TO 
ENGAGE IN A MUD-SLINGING CONTEST WITH HIM.  THE WORST OUTCOME 
FOR HIM IS FOR US TO REFUSE TO STOOP TO HIS LEVEL.  BY 
IGNORING HIM, OUR MESSAGE IS THAT HIS OUTRAGEOUS TRASH TALK 
DOES NOT EVEN MERIT A RESPONSE. 
SHAPIRO 
 
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      2004CARACA01134 - CONFIDENTIAL