US embassy cable - 01HARARE903

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000903 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 03/01/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT:  TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS HEADS OF DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL IRVING.  REASONS: 1.5 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
PAGE 02        HARARE  00903  01 OF 03  051245Z 
(B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (U) IN HIS FIRST-EVER BRIEFING FOR THE HEADS OF 
DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS, MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) 
PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI SAID ZIMBABWE IS IN A STATE OF 
"TERMINAL PARALYSIS" DUE TO THE BREAKDOWN IN THE RULE OF 
LAW AND INCREASE IN GOVERNMENT-SANCTIONED HUMAN RIGHTS 
ABUSES.  TSVANGIRAI URGED THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO 
ENGAGE CONSTRUCTIVELY WITH THE MUGABE GOVERNMENT IN 
PRESSING IT TO REVERSE COURSE, NOT IMPOSE SANCTIONS, WHICH 
WOULD HURT ONLY ORDINARY ZIMBABWEANS.  IN THIS CONNECTION, 
THE MDC PRESIDENT WAS CAREFUL TO NOTE HIS PARTY DID NOT 
CONSIDER CONGRESS'S ZIMBABWE DEMOCRACY BILL TO BE SANCTIONS 
LEGISLATION, BUT RATHER AN INCENTIVE TO GOOD GOZ BEHAVIOR. 
TSVANGIRAI EMPHASIZED THE MDC'S COMMITMENT TO EQUITABLE, 
 
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LAWFUL LAND REFORM THAT IS BASED ON THE PRINCIPLES 
IDENTIFIED BY THE 1998 DONORS' CONFERENCE ON LAND. 
TSVANGIRAI THOUGHT IT LIKELY THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE WOULD 
 
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CALL AN EARLY ELECTION, BUT MASS ACTION WOULD BE 
APPROPRIATE ONLY IF MUGABE STEALS THE ELECTION OR FINDS AN 
EXCUSE NOT TO HOLD IT.  THE MDC IS MORE COHESIVE THAN IT 
WAS LAST JUNE AND IS REGAINING SOME POLITICAL MOMENTUM. 
THE OPPOSITION PARTY IS FOCUSING BOTH ON WINNING THE 
ELECTION AND ON DEVISING THE POLICIES IT WOULD IMPLEMENT IF 
IT WINS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U) MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT 
MORGAN TSVANGIRAI BRIEFED HEADS OF DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS ON 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  00903  01 OF 03  051245Z 
MARCH 2 ON THE OPPOSITION PARTY'S POSITION ON RECENT 
DEVELOPMENTS.  HE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SEKAI HOLLAND, THE 
PARTY'S SECRETARY FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.  CHARGE AND 
POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF WERE IN ATTENDANCE.  TSVANGIRAI 
SPOKE FOR FIFTEEN MINUTES, THEN TOOK QUESTIONS. 
 
3.  (U) TSVANGIRAI EXPRESSED CONCERN THAT ZIMBABWE IS IN A 
STATE OF "TERMINAL PARALYSIS," DUE TO SEVERAL CRITICAL 
FACTORS.  FIRST WAS THE "ALARMING" BREAKDOWN IN THE RULE OF 
LAW, EVIDENCED BY THE EMASCULATION OF THE POLICE AND WAR 
VETERANS WREAKING HAVOC WITH ABSOLUTE IMPUNITY.  THE 
ESCALATING ATTACKS ON THE JUDICIARY ARE PARTICULARLY 
DISTURBING, AS THE EXECUTION OF JUSTICE IS COMPROMISED IF 
NOT EVEN JUDGES ARE SAFE. 
 
4.  (U) THE SECOND CRITICAL FACTOR WAS THE INCREASE IN 
GOVERNMENT-SANCTIONED HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES.  ELEMENTS OF THE 
ARMY, FOR INSTANCE, HAVE BEEN SENT INTO TOWNSHIPS TO BEAT 
PEOPLE INDISCRIMINATELY, WITHOUT CAUSE OR PROVOCATION.  THE 
MDC LEADERSHIP CONTINUES TO BE HARASSED, SUBJECTED BOTH TO 
"FLIMSY" CHARGES UNDER AN UNCONSTITUTIONAL LAW (NB: THE LAW 
AND ORDER MAINTENANCE ACT) ENACTED BY IAN SMITH TO WIELD 
AGAINST AFRICAN NATIONALISTS, AND PHYSICAL INTIMIDATION, 
EVIDENCED BY THE RECENT BEATINGS OF TWO MDC MPS.  THE GOZ 
IS TRYING TO MUZZLE THE INDEPENDENT PRESS, INDICATED BY THE 
BOMBING OF THE DAILY NEWS PRINTING PRESS, THE RELUCTANCE TO 
ISSUE OPERATING LICENSES TO PRIVATE RADIO BROADCASTERS, AND 
THE ILLEGAL DEPORTATION OF FOREIGN JOURNALISTS.  THE MDC'S 
37 ELECTORAL CHALLENGES WERE PROCEEDING IN THE HIGH COURT - 
- THREE HAVE BEEN HEARD SO FAR -- AND WERE SHINING THE 
SPOTLIGHT ON THE SERIOUS ABUSES WHICH HAD OCCURRED DURING 
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LAST JUNE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION.  A COURT DECISION TO 
SET ASIDE THE RESULTS IN SOME OF THE CONSTITUENCIES, 
TSVANGIRAI OBSERVED, WOULD CHANGE THE EQUATION IN 
 
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PARLIAMENT.  THE BOTTOM LINE OF THE BREAKDOWN IN THE RULE 
OF LAW AND TERRIBLE HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION IS THAT 
ZIMBABWEANS HAVE LOST CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT 
GOVERNMENT'S CAPACITY TO RUN THE COUNTRY'S AFFAIRS. THE 
THIRD CRITICAL FACTOR WAS THE DESTRUCTION OF THE ECONOMY, 
WHICH TSVANGIRAI PREDICTED COULD NOT LAST ANOTHER FIVE 
MONTHS UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES. 
 
5.  (U) THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE, TSVANGIRAI SAID, NOW 
HAS TWO OPTIONS.  IT COULD CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT 
REPRESSIVE PATH, WHICH WOULD LEAD INEVITABLY TO ITS OWN 
DOWNFALL, OR IT COULD REVERSE COURSE.  THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY HAS A CRUCIAL ROLE TO PLAY IN CONVINCING THE 
MUGABE GOVERNMENT TO DO THE RIGHT THING.  THE MOST 
EFFECTIVE APPROACH FOR OTHER NATIONS IS CONSTRUCTIVE 
ENGAGEMENT WITH THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT, NOT THE IMPOSITION 
OF SANCTIONS, A STEP WHICH THE MDC DOES NOT ADVOCATE. 
TSVANGIRAI NOTED RECENT PRESS REPORTS THAT THE ZIMBABWE 
 
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DEMOCRACY ACT (ZDA) MIGHT BE REVIVED SOON BY THE U.S. 
CONGRESS.  THE MDC, HE SAID, DOES NOT CONSIDER THE ZDA A 
SANCTIONS BILL BUT AN "INCENTIVE" TO PERSUADE THE GOZ TO 
REVERSE ITS DAMAGING POLICIES.  CONGRESSIONAL PASSAGE OF 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1712 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00903  02 OF 03  051246Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00 
      DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00 
      FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /010W 
                  ------------------CDADB9  051246Z /38 
P 051243Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8344 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000903 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 03/01/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT:  TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS HEADS OF DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS 
 
THE PROPOSED LEGISLATION, HE THOUGHT, WOULD HELP "KNOCK 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  00903  02 OF 03  051246Z 
SOME SENSE" INTO THE GOVERNMENT. 
 
6.  (U) TSVANGIRAI REJECTED CRITICISM THAT THE MDC DOES NOT 
HAVE A POLICY ON LAND.  HE INSISTED THAT THE OPPOSITION 
PARTY IS COMMITTED TO EQUITABLE, LAWFUL LAND REFORM THAT 
WILL GUARANTEE FOOD SECURITY AND PROTECT THE COUNTRY'S 
ECONOMIC BASE.  THE MDC OBJECTS TO THE METHODOLOGY OF THE 
FAST TRACK RESETTLEMENT PLAN, WHICH HE CALLED "RUINOUS." 
THE PARTY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THAT ANY LAND REFORM POLICY 
MUST BE BASED ON THE PRINCIPLES ENDORSED AT THE 1998 DONORS 
CONFERENCE. 
 
Q'S AND A'S 
----------- 
 
7.  (U) IN RESPONSE TO A NUMBER OF VARIED QUESTIONS FROM 
THE ASSEMBLED DIPLOMATS, TSVANGIRAI MADE THE FOLLOWING 
POINTS: 
 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
--------------------- 
 
8.  (U) TSVANGIRAI THOUGHT IT LIKELY THAT PRESIDENT MUGABE 
WILL CALL AN EARLY ELECTION.  HE THOUGHT THE STATE OF THE 
ECONOMY -- AND ITS PROGNOSIS FOR RECOVERY -- WOULD BE AN 
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR THE PRESIDENT IN MAKING THIS 
CALL.  ASKED WHY THE GOVERNMENT HAD CHARGED HIM RECENTLY 
WITH INCITING VIOLENCE, THE MDC PRESIDENT SAID THE GOZ 
ACTION CONSTITUTED "PURE HARASSMENT," AND THAT IT HAD BEEN 
HOLDING THE POTENTIAL CHARGE OVER HIS HEAD FOR ALMOST SIX 
MONTHS.  IF CONVICTED, HE WOULD BE SENTENCED TO A MINIMUM 
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PAGE 03        HARARE  00903  02 OF 03  051246Z 
OF SEVEN YEARS IN PRISON AND WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO RUN FOR 
PRESIDENT.  HE WOULD APPEAL A CONVICTION TO THE SUPREME 
COURT, BUT FELT CONFIDENT THAT THE HIGH COURT WOULD DISMISS 
THE CHARGE, AS SECTIONS OF THE LAW AND ORDER MAINTENANCE 
ACT PREVIOUSLY HAVE BEEN DECLARED UNCONSTITUTIONAL.  THE 
LOMA, HE POINTED OUT, IS BEING APPLIED SELECTIVELY, AS 
PRESIDENT MUGABE AND OTHER SENIOR OFFICIALS IN HIS 
GOVERNMENT HAVE MADE MUCH MORE "TREASONABLE" STATEMENTS. 
SEKAI HOLLAND INTERJECTED THAT THE ARREST OR CONVICTION OF 
TSVANGIRAI COULD BE THE SPARK THAT SENDS ANGRY ZIMBABWEANS 
 
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INTO THE STREETS IN PROTEST, AND THE GOVERNMENT WAS WELL 
AWARE OF THAT POSSIBILITY. 
 
9.  (U) ACCORDING TO TSVANGIRAI, THE MDC HAS POSTPONED MASS 
ACTION, AS NOW IS NOT THE "RIGHT TIME."  THAT ASSESSMENT 
MIGHT CHANGE, HOWEVER, IF THE GOVERNMENT STEALS THE 
ELECTION OR AVOIDS HOLDING ONE BY DECLARING A STATE OF 
EMERGENCY. 
 
NEW CONSTITUTION? 
----------------- 
 
10.  (U) TSVANGIRAI EXPRESSED HIS SUPPORT FOR A NEW 
CONSTITUTION, BUT THOUGHT THIS WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO 
ACCOMPLISH IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT.  HE COMPARED THE 
DILEMMA TO THE CHICKEN AND EGG CONUNDRUM, ASKING 
RHETORICALLY WHETHER IT MADE MORE SENSE TO PUT A NEW BULB 
IN A DEFECTIVE LAMP, OR TO REPLACE THE LAMP.  HE THOUGHT 
THE BEST WAY TO PROCEED WAS FIRST TO REPLACE THE CURRENT 
GOVERNMENT WITH ONE WILLING TO ALLOW A CONSTRUCTIVE 
CONSTITUTION-DRAFTING PROCESS TO MOVE FORWARD. 
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PAGE 04        HARARE  00903  02 OF 03  051246Z 
 
RELATIONS WITH SOUTH AFRICA 
--------------------------- 
 
11.  (U) TSVANGIRAI'S RECENT MEETINGS IN SOUTH AFRICA WITH 
ANC OFFICIALS REPRESENTED A SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE OF ATTITUDE 
FROM THE SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT.  THE DISCUSSIONS HAD 
PRODUCED A COMMON UNDERSTANDING THAT THE ANC-MDC DIALOGUE 
SHOULD BE CONTINUED AT ALL LEVELS.  "IT IS NOT TRUE THAT 
PRESIDENT MBEKI CONDONES WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ZIMBABWE," HE 
STATED. 
 
SANCTIONS 
--------- 
 
12.  (U) ASKED TO CLARIFY HIS STATED OPPOSITION TO THE 
IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS AGAINST THE GOZ, TSVANGIRAI 
PROVIDED TWO REASONS.  SANCTIONS WOULD HURT ORDINARY 
ZIMBABWEANS, NOT THE MEMBERS OF GOVERNMENT AT WHOM THEY 
WOULD BE TARGETED, AND THEY WOULD TAKE A LONG TIME TO 
REVERSE, EVEN AFTER AN MDC GOVERNMENT CAME INTO POWER. 
 
MDC THEN AND NOW 
---------------- 
 
                       CONFIDENTIAL 
 
                           CONFIDENTIAL     PTQ1713 
 
PAGE 01        HARARE  00903  03 OF 03  051246Z 
ACTION AF-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CIAE-00  INL-00 
      DINT-00  DODE-00  DOTE-00  SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    EUR-00 
      FAAE-00  FBIE-00  VC-00    H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00 
      LAB-01   L-00     VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01 
      OPIC-01  PA-00    PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      IRM-00   STR-00   TRSE-00  USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      PRM-01   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00   SWCI-00    /010W 
                  ------------------CDADC1  051246Z /38 
P 051243Z MAR 01 
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8345 
INFO NSC WASHDC PRIORITY 
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY 
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 
 
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000903 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR WILLIAMS 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL. 03/01/11 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PINS, PINR, ZI 
SUBJECT:  TSVANGIRAI BRIEFS HEADS OF DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS 
 
13.  (U) TSVANGIRAI WAS ASKED TO ASSESS HOW THE MDC HAS 
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PAGE 02        HARARE  00903  03 OF 03  051246Z 
EVOLVED SINCE THE JUNE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.  HE SAID IT 
WAS NATURAL THAT THE MDC WOULD FACE SOME INTERNAL PROBLEMS, 
GIVEN THE BROAD-BASED NATURE OF THE PARTY MEMBERSHIP. 
HOWEVER, HE BELIEVED THE PARTY WAS NOW MORE COHESIVE AND 
WAS BEGINNING TO REGAIN MOMENTUM AS IT PREPARED FOR THE 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.  THE MDC'S PRIMARY FOCUS IS WINNING 
THE ELECTION, BUT THE PARTY IS ALSO PUTTING IN PLACE ITS 
PLAN FOR GOVERNING.  THE MDC'S PRIORITIES UPON TAKING 
OFFICE WOULD BE RESTORING THE RULE OF LAW, REVITALIZING THE 
ECONOMY, PUTTING THE LAND QUESTION BACK ON A "SANER PATH," 
AND REENGAGING WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
14.  (C) TSVANGIRAI APPEARED CONFIDENT AND RELAXED, AND HE 
HANDLED WITH EASE AND HUMOR THE MANY DIFFICULT QUESTIONS 
ASKED OF HIM.  THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE MDC PRESIDENT 
HAS BRIEFED A GATHERING OF HEADS OF DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS, 
BUT HE INTENDS THE MARCH 2 SESSION TO BE THE FIRST 
INSTALLMENT IN A REGULAR SERIES OF SUCH GATHERINGS. 
TSVANGIRAI SEEMS TO HAVE CONCLUDED THAT IT IS IN THE MDC'S 
 
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INTEREST TO STEP UP ENGAGEMENT WITH THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY, PARTICULARLY AS MUGABE'S GOVERNMENT BECOMES 
INCREASINGLY ISOLATED.  HE ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE RECOGNIZED 
THAT, AS THE ZIMBABWEAN FIGURE MOST LIKELY TO WIN A FREE 
AND FAIR ELECTION, HE SHOULD WEIGH IN WITH THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ON THE IMPORTANT ISSUES OF THE DAY. 
TSVANGIRAI'S REACHING OUT TO THE HEADS OF MISSION IS A 
 
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POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT SUGGESTS HE IS MATURING AS A 
POLITICIAN. 
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IRVING 
 
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