US embassy cable - 04HARARE564

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000564 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S AND AF/EX 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER 
USDOC FOR AMANDA HILLIGAS 
TREASURY FOR OREN WYCHE-SHAW 
PASS USTR FLORIZELLE LISER 
STATE PASS USAID FOR MARJORIE COPSON 
 
E. O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, ETRD, EINV, PGOV, ZI 
SUBJECT: IMF Advocates Devaluation 
 
 
1. Summary: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Southern 
Africa Chief Doris Ross has called on the GOZ to devalue, 
spend less and restart tripartite discussions.  She also 
predicted the IMF Board of Governors would neither 
restore privileges nor expel Zimbabwe from the lending 
body as a result of these talks, freezing the country's 
current suspended status.  While the Ross delegation 
prescribed sound medicine, we do not yet see a GOZ 
willingness to swallow the pill.  End summary. 
 
2. Ross' IMF delegation held Article IV consultations in 
Zimbabwe March 17-31.  Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono 
has repeatedly stated he wants to lead Zimbabwe back to 
IMF reengagement.  At a diplomatic briefing, Ross 
summarized her delegation's findings for us.  Highlights 
follow. 
 
Foreign Currency Generation 
--------------------------- 
3. Concerning forex inflows from exports, Ross lamented 
that her crew had not "gotten to the bottom of the story" 
despite repeated queries. She estimated the GOZ was 
sending at least half its export proceeds to underfunded 
currency auctions, where it sells US$16 million each week 
to importers at a preferential, overvalued rate.  She did 
not believe the current supply of forex to the auction 
system was sustainable.  However, she argued the 
auctions, introduced in January, provided a handy 
mechanism for the RBZ to depreciate its currency to 
reflect market conditions, even if the RBZ has not yet 
deployed it effectively.  Only an export rebound could 
lead a recovery, Ross stressed. 
 
Fiscal Policy 
------------- 
4. Ross complained of fiscal indiscipline, noting the 
2004 budget "was not conducive to bringing inflation 
down."  Last year's budget deficit reached 7.5 percent of 
GDP.  While high inflation continually drives down the 
rate of domestic debt on borrowed funds, she expects the 
GOZ will require a supplementary budget this year. 
Government ministries and parastatals are still enjoying 
very cheap forex. 
 
5. The IMF advised the GOZ to adapt its tax collection to 
this high-inflation environment, suggesting both that 
firms pay estimates during the year and that the GOZ 
readjust rates more frequently to account for bracket 
creep.  If the GOZ abolishes its 25 percent retention of 
export earnings, it will face a significant budget 
shortfall.  On the other hand, the 2004 budget did not 
account for a 5-fold increase in customs collections on 
imports, which came about when Gono decided to assess 
goods using the new auction rate.  The IMF bemoaned 
inconsistent terms of domestic borrowing, where the RBZ's 
T-bills compounded either daily, monthly or quarterly 
while the Finance Ministry's own bonds compound daily. 
Due to high inflation, the means of compounding causes 
effective rates to vary wildly. 
 
Agricultural Rebound 
-------------------- 
6. Ross opined that mining might some day lead a 
recovery, since there is no short-term means to 
reinvigorate post-land reform agriculture.  Special 
Affairs Minister John Nkomo, who now has the GOZ lead on 
land reform, told the delegation he wanted to prepare by 
May a register of farm occupants and end multiple farm 
holdings.  Nkomo said he sought to introduce 99-year 
leases for large-scale resettled farms (A2s) as well as 
communal farms that could serve as collateral for bank 
loans. 
 
Other Findings 
--------------- 
7. In addition, the IMF group added: 
- The GOZ should reconvene Tripartite talks with business 
and labor.  The GOZ has no formal dialogue with the 
Zimbabwe Confederation of Trade Unions at this time. 
- The IMF foresees a GDP decline of 4-5 percent in 2004, 
significantly below the GOZ's own 8-9 percent estimate. 
Partly, a GOZ double counting of certain service charges 
may explain the difference.  Although fodder for 
methodological debate, the IMF now believes GDP has 
receded 30 percent in five years, versus alternative 
estimates as high as 40 percent. 
- There are still too many banks for Zimbabwe's shrunken 
economy, even after the current shakedown. Due to 
negative borrowing rates, however, the sector has a low 
ratio of non-performing loans. 
- Zimbabwe may soon reach Heavily Indebted Poor Country 
(HIPC) levels, given current debt-to-export levels.  If 
the country returns to good standing with the IMF, it 
will almost certainly have to restructure external debt. 
- The Finance Ministry and RBZ should better coordinate 
economic policy.  Since Gono became RBZ governor in 
December, the Finance Ministry's role has become 
marginal. 
- Gono will make another policy statement in mid-April. 
The besieged export sector hopes for relief at that time. 
- By next year, the GOZ's entire IMF debt - currently 
$310 million - will have fallen into arrears.  Ross has 
been told a symbolic payment of US$6 million is in the 
pipeline, and that the GOZ would pay missing portions of 
similar symbolic payments begun since 2001. 
- In conclusion, Ross speculated that IMF governors would 
neither expel Zimbabwe nor restore its privileges, 
although she noted that it would be IMF management 
recommending to the Board and the Board deciding. 
 
Comment 
------- 
8. Ross, who has learned much about Zimbabwe since her 
first consultations in 2003, carried the right message - 
export promotion, fiscal control and dialogue.  She would 
not speculate upon GOZ receptivity.  Although government 
interlocutors asked anxiously when they might access IMF 
money, this Government probably accomplished all it could 
by staving off expulsion.  On the other hand, we were 
disappointed the eager-to-reengage RBZ is still unwilling 
to handle data objectively and transparently.  The GOZ 
treats weekly export revenues as a state secret, invents 
unfounded maize harvest projections and offers no public 
accounting of resettled farmers.  We do not believe it 
will act decisively to turn the economy around until it 
confronts these ghosts. 
 
Sullivan