US embassy cable - 04COLOMBO573

C O N F I D E N T I A L COLOMBO 000573 
 
SIPDIS 
 
OFFICIAL INFORMAL 
 
FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL:  04/01/14 
TAGS: AMGT, CE, MV, Elections, LTTE - Peace Process 
SUBJECT:  OFFICIAL INFORMAL NUMBER 052 (04/01/04) 
 
Classified by DCM James F. Entwistle for reasons 1.5 (b) 
and (d). 
 
CONTENTS: SRI LANKA GEARS UP FOR ELECTION 
          SITUATION IN EAST 
          COLOMBO PLAN 
 
SRI LANKA GEARS UP FOR ELECTION 
------------------------------- 
 
1.  (C)  FYI.  We want to flag the following items 
related to Sri Lanka's parliamentary elections, which 
take place tomorrow, April 2: 
 
-- We are sending out a snapshot of Sri Lanka on the eve 
of the election, which you should see in a 
front-channel tonight. 
 
-- There continues to be an argument between the 
Election Commission and the President's office over the 
Election Commissioner's recent decision to take over the 
electronic state-run media, including television and 
radio.  A bench of the Supreme Court on March 30 
rejected a request from the President's office to 
reverse the Election Commissioner's ruling.  In the 
meantime, the President continues to control the state- 
run newspapers (news coverage in these papers is very 
much skewed in favor of the President's UPFA party, to 
put it mildly). 
 
-- A poll by the Org-MARG-Smart group, released earlier 
this week, predicted the following results of tomorrow's 
election:  99 seats for the PM's UNP party, 101 for the 
President's UPFA and 13 to the pro-Tiger TNA.  We are 
not vouching for the poll's results, but it is 
interesting to note that this poll also predicts that 
the JHU party, which is running an all-monk slate, will 
take nine seats.  If JHU does that well, it would be 
quite a showing.  Overall, the poll basically predicts a 
hung parliament.  (The poll was taken in both rural and 
urban areas and in all regions, save those under LTTE 
control.) 
 
-- Mission's ten teams (officers and FSNs) are fanning 
out across the country to get in place for informal 
election observation activities tomorrow.  (POL) 
 
SITUATION IN EAST 
----------------- 
 
2.  (C) FYI.  The Ambassador spoke today with Norwegian 
Ambassador Brattskar, who confirmed that the situation 
in Batticaloa remains tense.  There were many 
conflicting reports about exactly what was transpiring. 
Brattskar said the SLMM is patrolling the east, 
including in areas held by breakaway rebel leader 
Karuna, as well as those held by the main LTTE 
organization.  Brattskar said the monitors noted that 
there were "no burning shops" and no people fleeing the 
region en masse, as had been reported.  (There have been 
reports that Karuna has ordered all "Jaffna" Tamils to 
leave areas under his control, for example.)  Brattskar 
noted that both the Karuna side and the main LTTE led by 
V. Prabhakaran were stepping up the rhetoric ahead of 
election day, thus adding to the tension.  He also noted 
that there were various rumors that the killing of a TNA 
candidate on March 30 had been perpetrated by either the 
Karuna faction, or the main LTTE, or some unnamed "third 
force."  (Note:  Most observers here believe the main 
LTTE was behind the shooting, as do we.)  Brattskar also 
noted that the LTTE continues to call his Embassy to 
discuss the elections, and specifically to make sure 
that Tamils living in LTTE-controlled areas are allowed 
to vote freely and fairly.  In the meantime, Mission 
USAID/OTI staff in the east report that the rumors are 
swirling thick and furious, including one rumor that 
Paduman, the former LTTE strongman in Trincomalee, has 
been killed in the Vanni.  (This rumor had also 
circulated in early March, but was judged not to be true 
at that time.)  Overall, the east remains very much on 
edge, we would say.  (POL) 
 
COLOMBO PLAN 
------------ 
 
3. (SBU)  Any response to our request last week for 
clarity from IO re the Colombo Plan?  (DCM) 
 
LUNSTEAD